NFL Survivor Picks - Page 107 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

San Francisco looks like a great pick if they stay this unpopular, especially in smaller pools.

Cincinnati looks all right as well (as an alternative to Tampa Bay and Washington), but if you're planning ahead you might want to keep CIN around for weeks 9 and 10 when everyone else will be on Seattle.

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09-10-2014 , 07:08 AM

#2652

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,719

Quote:

Originally Posted by accobra_kid

San Francisco looks like a great pick if they stay this unpopular, especially in smaller pools.

Why in smaller pools? This is opposite of my thinking. I think they are still good in small pools, but the bigger the pool the better they are

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09-10-2014 , 07:33 AM

#2653

River Monster

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 158

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

Why in smaller pools? This is opposite of my thinking. I think they are still good in small pools, but the bigger the pool the better they are

I suppose in bigger pools, you are likely to play more weeks, therefore it could be prudent to save the better teams til later if possible?

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09-10-2014 , 12:55 PM

#2654

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,719

My thoughts are the bigger the pool, the more likely the overall pick distribution will be similar to the public pick % so you can make a much better calculation on the best pick.

In a small pool, it's quite likely the picks will vary from public numbers.

Ie. San Francisco at 3% or something. Huge pool, that number holds true. 10 person pool, even one person (you) picking them makes it 3x higher a %

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09-11-2014 , 02:37 AM

#2655

BuffaloHound

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 718

I'm not much of a sports bettor, but I'm in a double elimination pool with 20 ppl. Took Phi week 1 and I don't see a reason to not take the Skins week 2. I'm not super confident about that pick, but Vegas has them favored by 6 which is a pretty big spread compared to the other games. Plus I wanna save the 49ers and Seattle for future use. Thoughts or recommendations please?

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09-11-2014 , 11:30 AM

#2656

nyjets15

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 398

I mapped out the whole season before week 1 and I have the redskins this week. Obviously things can change, but SF was the one "good" team that I never used. So from what I remember SF was never the biggest favorite in any week down the road, so I could see myself switching to them this week. You would think that they would have value in the future, but this might turn out to be the best week for SF.

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09-11-2014 , 11:45 AM

#2657

overcast

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 230

Quote:

Originally Posted by nyjets15

SurvivorGrid does the same thing. For whatever it's worth, they project SF second biggest favorite in weeks 9, 12, and 14. Weeks 12 and 14 both have #1 as Denver.

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09-11-2014 , 12:03 PM

#2658

wamplerr

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 1,233

For anyone doing the Zathras Pool, I'll be nice and post the EV numbers for week 1. This is based on the actual pick distribution, a moneyline from Friday, and simulation so numbers might be a little off:

DEN +5.52%
DET +3.94%
PHI +2.16%
PIT +0.85%
NYJ -0.41%
CHI -1.56%
SF -4.68%

Other teams all -5% or worse.

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09-11-2014 , 09:03 PM

#2659

sbecks

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 448

For a large pool (~4-500) with multiple entries - do you guys prefer to diversify your picks or let it ride on a single selection each week?

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09-11-2014 , 09:07 PM

#2660

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,767

I went Baltimore in every pool this week.

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09-11-2014 , 09:36 PM

#2661

THAKID

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 9,873

Quote:

Originally Posted by wamplerr

Wtf

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09-11-2014 , 11:04 PM

#2662

CohibaBehike

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 3,651

going 49ers.

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09-11-2014 , 11:16 PM

#2663

kdog

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,864

Quote:

Originally Posted by nyjets15

32 teams & a 17 week season. You should not have to use a team as bad as Washington at all.

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09-12-2014 , 01:04 AM

#2664

THAKID

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 9,873

Um Washington is not in the bottom 10
And a home game against loljax
Makes them unique value

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09-12-2014 , 08:10 AM

#2665

stoffmakers

adept

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,154

Quote:

Originally Posted by kdog

32 teams & a 17 week season. You should not have to use a team as bad as Washington at all.

this is absolutely terrible advice

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09-12-2014 , 08:11 AM

#2666

stoffmakers

adept

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,154

Quote:

Originally Posted by THAKID

Wtf

missing packers obv

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09-12-2014 , 08:39 AM

#2667

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,767

Man week 4 looks impossible.

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09-12-2014 , 08:59 AM

#2668

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

Really? Week 8 is the one I have standing out the most.

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09-12-2014 , 09:09 AM

#2669

stoffmakers

adept

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,154

Quote:

Originally Posted by EddyB66

Man week 4 looks impossible.

seems like its gonna be one of those weeks where everyone is on chargers and 90% of the pool is eliminated when they lose

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09-12-2014 , 09:37 AM

#2670

sfcard

adept

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 1,142

Quote:

Originally Posted by accobra_kid

Code:

DENVER        Kansas City  -750  23%  30% 
GREEN BAY     New York     -395  29%  30%
SAN FRANCISCO Chicago      -299   5%   7%
New Orleans   CLEVELAND    -270  22%  10%
TAMPA BAY     St. Louis    -255   5%   7%
WASHINGTON    Jacksonville -255   3%   6%
CINCINNATI    Atlanta      -244   0%   1%
Seattle       San Diego    -240   3%   2%
TENNESSEE     Dallas       -190   1%   1%
INDIANAPOLIS  Philadelphia -159   0%   1%
New England   MINNESOTA    -158   2%   1%
Houston       OAKLAND      -143   3%   1%
BALTIMORE     Pittsbugh    -138   0%   0%
CAROLINA      Detroit      -137   0%   0%  
Miami         BUFFALO       off   1%   0%
Arizona       NEW YORK      off   1%   1%

Lines are from Pinnacle as of 6:00am Wednesday, other totals are popularity from Yahoo and OFP.

Thanks for posting this, appreciate it.

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09-12-2014 , 10:54 AM

#2671

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,767

Out of 700 people I was the only person to use the Ravens

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09-12-2014 , 03:11 PM

#2672

Inland_Taipan

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 563

Quote:

Originally Posted by sbecks

For a large pool (~4-500) with multiple entries - do you guys prefer to diversify your picks or let it ride on a single selection each week?

Mine is even larger...3300+ entrants..we have double picks in weeks 5, 10 and 12. The double picks the rest of the way. I have multiple entries (4) and looking to put 3 of them on Denver and maybe 1 on a flyer like Washington.

How many of you are using mapping pools to project your picks? I did a little last year but not sure if it helps or not...curious as to others strat.

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09-12-2014 , 06:34 PM

#2673

kazor

Coach PLO

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 2,123

Mapping out a little does help but you still need to survive. I find it most useful when teams are close. I do think Redskins are a decent pick and likely who I am picking but have not decided yet.

Any pros/cons for 49'ers or Greenbay?

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09-12-2014 , 09:31 PM

#2674

Jkpoker10

veteran

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 2,983

Anyone have advice for 12 picks in a pool. I'm thinking about going 8 GB, 2 wash, and 2 Houston? idk if should just go all on 1 team or spread the risk. I just feel its best to get some teams that offer no value later on out of the way against weak teams. Def think Houston and Washington games offer a lot of risk though.