NFL Survivor Picks - Page 106 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

Bloodbath in my big pool....1025 peeps out week one (30%)...mostly Chi and KC.....could have been another 1200 had Philly not turned it on. Huge pot -

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09-07-2014 , 11:11 PM

#2628

THAKID

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 9,873

Quote:

Originally Posted by CohibaBehike

meh, i try to avoid division matchups.

Lol
Go away

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09-07-2014 , 11:19 PM

#2629

THAKID

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 9,873

Denver or redskin for week 2?

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09-07-2014 , 11:54 PM

#2630

DisGunBGud

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 23,708

Quote:

Originally Posted by DisGunBGud

I have Philly locked in but the more I stare at it the wearier I get

Well thank god my stare sense was only good for a half

Sorry Chicago backers. Denver backers feel free to loosen those *******s.

Why would anyone take the Redskins after the showing they had today?

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09-08-2014 , 03:05 AM

#2631

THAKID

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 9,873

Because not many will take them and they have no future value

They're playing the jaguars at home

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09-08-2014 , 08:03 AM

#2632

sheriffolds

adept

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 834

Jags took advantage of some early turnovers but overall they will play a lot of teams close this year.

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09-08-2014 , 09:46 AM

#2633

THAKID

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 9,873

Let me word that differently

A 5.5 point favorite with no future value in week 2 that not many ppl will pick or a 12 point favorite that a lot of ppl will pick

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09-08-2014 , 11:36 AM

#2634

sheriffolds

adept

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 834

Quote:

Originally Posted by THAKID

Let me word that differently

A 5.5 point favorite with no future value in week 2 that not many ppl will pick or a 12 point favorite that a lot of ppl will pick

I think that they way these pools are being looked at is very interesting. I have a small amount of experience playing in these pools for the last five years or so. I kind of feel that there may be to much looking ahead. Maybe it's variance but every time I forgo a pick I initially like for a team that has some value this week but none in the future. I find my self in the sweat of a life time or out of the pool. I may be completely wrong on this and I have no numbers to support what I'm saying. Just my feeling

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09-08-2014 , 02:59 PM

#2635

THAKID

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 9,873

It's not just the future value
It's that everyone is gonna be on the 12 point favorite

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09-08-2014 , 06:14 PM

#2636

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,669

I'd say future value is the least of my considerations.

Winning % and popularity are far more important.

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09-08-2014 , 08:47 PM

#2637

THAKID

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 9,873

So for the people that picked the jets last week
What team are you picking this week?

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09-08-2014 , 10:25 PM

#2638

BraveJayhawk

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Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Quote:

Originally Posted by THAKID

So for the people that picked the jets last week
What team are you picking this week?

Lol'ed

Mostly Cincinnati & Green Bay

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09-08-2014 , 10:31 PM

#2639

BuffaloHound

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 718

I took Phi week 1 and I'm considering taking the Skins for week 2. Any thoughts?

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09-09-2014 , 01:11 AM

#2640

rakeme

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 6,715

Quote:

Originally Posted by BuffaloHound

I took Phi week 1 and I'm considering taking the Skins for week 2. Any thoughts?

There's not one week where I'd ever think of taking the skins this year.

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09-09-2014 , 01:33 AM

#2641

Inland_Taipan

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 563

Quote:

Originally Posted by rakeme

There's not one week where I'd ever think of taking the skins this year.

What about a Buy back pool...lose any week up to week 6, you can buy back in but you still lose that team for any future use....it's ok to take less EV teams then, right? I have one of my pools like that...I generally use crappy teams during first 6 weeks knowing I might have to rebuy a few times.

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09-09-2014 , 02:24 AM

#2642

BuffaloHound

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 718

Vegas has the Skins tied in a 3-way for 2nd place for the most favored team this week. Just saying.

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09-09-2014 , 07:02 AM

#2643

kazor

Coach PLO

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 2,123

Eagles loss would have wiped out a lot of entrants in the pools. I think being a bit riskier at the beginning can be smart in large pools since you want to have some future value in later rounds. Of course if your not around it will not matter much.

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09-09-2014 , 09:16 AM

#2644

cokeboy99

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 1,776

Are the Packers a bad play this week? Took Denver in week 1.

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09-09-2014 , 09:59 AM

#2645

rakeme

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 6,715

Going Denver this week, lock it up.

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09-09-2014 , 10:01 AM

#2646

accobra_kid

$tat$ King

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 15,308

Quote:

Originally Posted by cokeboy99

Are the Packers a bad play this week? Took Denver in week 1.

How likely are they to win?
How popular are they this week?
How many people left in your pool?
Will you need them in week 5? What about week 15?

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09-09-2014 , 07:49 PM

#2647

Jkpoker10

veteran

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 2,978

I think tampa bay offers most value. Green bay seems like safest pick though.

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09-09-2014 , 07:54 PM

#2648

canabiz

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 228

Quote:

Originally Posted by THAKID

So for the people that picked the jets last week
What team are you picking this week?

Looking at Washington or Cincy.

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09-09-2014 , 08:24 PM

#2649

THAKID

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 9,873

13.5 for Denver just seems like a lot to pass up

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09-10-2014 , 06:34 AM

#2650

accobra_kid

$tat$ King

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 15,308

Code:

DENVER        Kansas City  -750  23%  30% 
GREEN BAY     New York     -395  29%  30%
SAN FRANCISCO Chicago      -299   5%   7%
New Orleans   CLEVELAND    -270  22%  10%
TAMPA BAY     St. Louis    -255   5%   7%
WASHINGTON    Jacksonville -255   3%   6%
CINCINNATI    Atlanta      -244   0%   1%
Seattle       San Diego    -240   3%   2%
TENNESSEE     Dallas       -190   1%   1%
INDIANAPOLIS  Philadelphia -159   0%   1%
New England   MINNESOTA    -158   2%   1%
Houston       OAKLAND      -143   3%   1%
BALTIMORE     Pittsbugh    -138   0%   0%
CAROLINA      Detroit      -137   0%   0%  
Miami         BUFFALO       off   1%   0%
Arizona       NEW YORK      off   1%   1%

Lines are from Pinnacle as of 6:00am Wednesday, other totals are popularity from Yahoo and OFP.

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