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Old 09-04-2014, 05:20 PM   #2601
Cosines11
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by housenuts View Post
if that's the case denver should definitely be the pick this week. philly is 80% win, denver is 75%.

philly is picked by 43% of the public, denver is picked by 3%

their win %'s are similar enough. the main reason people aren't picking denver is because of their future value.

even if you couldn't pick the same team again i'd still recommend denver over philly. really, being allowed to pick the same team again and again just gives you more options, it doesn't mean you should be a sheep and follow the herd.
makes sense. thanks
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Old 09-04-2014, 07:33 PM   #2602
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I like the jets for week 1 as best value (If you are in multiple pools). They offer no value later on in season. I wanna say I have the jets in 3 pools out of my 15 total.

Any thoughts on the worst team in nfl now? I would probably say Jags, Raiders, and possibly browns. I feel its good to know who the worst teams play as its great if you can pick another bad team with no future value against them and get them out of your pick list to save better teams.
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Old 09-05-2014, 02:26 AM   #2603
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Based on season long win totals and playoff probability, Vegas thinks it's Jax/Oak as worst teams. Seemingly in that order.

Beyond that they think Buffalo, St Louis, Cleveland and Minnesota belong in the next tier with Ten and TB maybe in the conversation.
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Old 09-05-2014, 04:11 AM   #2604
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by TheGreenMile View Post
Based on season long win totals and playoff probability, Vegas thinks it's Jax/Oak as worst teams. Seemingly in that order.

Beyond that they think Buffalo, St Louis, Cleveland and Minnesota belong in the next tier with Ten and TB maybe in the conversation.
One problem with using win totals to gauge the ability of a team is that win totals take schedule strength into account. Don't Oakland have the toughest schedule in the NFL?
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Old 09-05-2014, 04:15 AM   #2605
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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One problem with using win totals to gauge the ability of a team is that win totals take schedule strength into account. Don't Oakland have the toughest schedule in the NFL?
Yeah also true. Oakland the toughest schedule based on last season win %. http://fansided.com/2014/09/03/2014-...th-schedule-2/
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Old 09-05-2014, 09:21 AM   #2606
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Haven't done one of these in years

Actually picked the jets and just came to check if I was crazy

Apparently I'm not

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Old 09-05-2014, 09:50 AM   #2607
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Taking the bears week 1
In a double elimination , thought about taking jets but I think raiders win that game , Carr scares me
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Old 09-05-2014, 12:30 PM   #2608
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by housenuts View Post
if that's the case denver should definitely be the pick this week. philly is 80% win, denver is 75%.

philly is picked by 43% of the public, denver is picked by 3%

their win %'s are similar enough. the main reason people aren't picking denver is because of their future value.

even if you couldn't pick the same team again i'd still recommend denver over philly. really, being allowed to pick the same team again and again just gives you more options, it doesn't mean you should be a sheep and follow the herd.
In pools where repeats are allowed, it does mean you can't use the 43% and 3% numbers. These pools are easier since you don't have to factor in future value, the hard part is estimating what percentage of people are on what teams. As far as I know, this isn't published anywhere.
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Old 09-05-2014, 12:46 PM   #2609
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I agree, that's where you have to figure out what % you think your pool will take. Denver will probably be higher than the 3% since they are reusable.
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Old 09-06-2014, 08:16 AM   #2610
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Guys, what about Pools where you can sell your entries down the road (if you survive that far?)

I've seen people flipping entries for triple or quadruple the original amount a few weeks into the season. This is obviously dependent on the number of entries remaining. I don't know why they didn't want to go all the way (it is possible they have multiple entries and want to cash in at least 1) but I am not here to question or judge them.

What is the correct strategy here? Take the path less travelled and hope to separate yourself from the pack or just ride the teams with the biggest winning probabibility and flip it later on?
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Old 09-06-2014, 10:14 AM   #2611
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Is anyone considering DET at all? Don't see any talk of them and seems like a good option; same win % as PIT but less popular around 3% instead of 10% for PIT. Also almost no future value.

But then again, they are one of these teams that can blow any game and are hard to trust consistently.

Last edited by ProfBets; 09-06-2014 at 10:43 AM.
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Old 09-06-2014, 11:58 AM   #2612
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Basically what you're saying is you're smarter than their vegas win %. If that's what you think, then sure, stay off them.
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Old 09-06-2014, 12:32 PM   #2613
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by canabiz View Post
Guys, what about Pools where you can sell your entries down the road (if you survive that far?)

I've seen people flipping entries for triple or quadruple the original amount a few weeks into the season. This is obviously dependent on the number of entries remaining. I don't know why they didn't want to go all the way (it is possible they have multiple entries and want to cash in at least 1) but I am not here to question or judge them.

What is the correct strategy here? Take the path less travelled and hope to separate yourself from the pack or just ride the teams with the biggest winning probabibility and flip it later on?
I don't think the strategy is any different. If you ride the teams with the biggest win probability the whole way, when you manage to survive you'll be there alongside many others and your won't be able to sell your entry for as much.

When you're deciding go against the crowd, you shouldn't be picking underdogs just for the sole purpose of differentiation. You should be doing so because the most obvious favorite of the week is too popular, or because there's suitable alternatives that are significantly less popular, or because you want to save the favorite for a better week.

Selling your entry should really only be a concern at endgame once you've managed to fade the one or two games each year that inevitably eliminate 50%+ of the entries. Until then, play to win the pool.
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Old 09-06-2014, 12:45 PM   #2614
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Nah I'm not saying that...but wondering why no one has mentioned them at all?
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Old 09-06-2014, 12:54 PM   #2615
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by ProfBets View Post
Nah I'm not saying that...but wondering why no one has mentioned them at all?
I am considering them for 1 of my Pools.
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Old 09-07-2014, 10:17 AM   #2616
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I'm in one pool with about 30ish people
I'd like to join a couple more , any recommendations?
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Old 09-07-2014, 10:49 AM   #2617
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

There's a few in the sports betting area alone, I'm in all of them...but hurry up some r due an hour before kickoff or closed.
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Old 09-07-2014, 11:14 AM   #2618
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Updated lines and popularity.

First number is Pinnacle moneyline from last week.
Second number is Pinnacle moneyline from right now.
Third number is Yahoo popularity from last week.
Fourth number is Yahoo popularity from right now.
Fifth number is OFP popularity from right now.

Code:
PHILADELPHIA  Jacksonville -500  -500  49%  48%  40%
DENVER        Indianapolis -310  -340   2%   2%   4%
CHICAGO       Buffalo      -280  -300  18%  21%  21%
DETROIT       New York     -208  -285   2%   3%   3%
NEW YORK      Oakland      -235  -270   3%   5%   8%
PITTSBURGH    Cleveland    -270  -250   7%   9%  12%
New England   MIAMI        -205  -190   3%   2%   2%
KANSAS CITY   Tennessee    -208  -167   6%   4%   4%
San Francisco DALLAS       -235  -165   2%   1%   1%
TAMPA BAY     Carolina      off  -160   0%   0%   0%
New Orleans   ATLANTA      -144  -160   1%   1%   1%
HOUSTON       Washington   -139  -160   0%   0%   0%
ARIZONA       San Diego    -165  -155   0%   0%   0%
ST LOUIS      Minnesota    -202  -137   1%   0%   1%
BALTIMORE     Cincinnati    off  -119   0%   0%   0%
SEATTLE       Green Bay    -235  done   1%   1%   1%
Philadelphia still is too popular for my liking, as are Chicago.

Denver looks like a fantastic pick, but probably has the most future value of any team out there.

Detroit is creeping up and up the board, they are looking like the best pick at the moment. Couple possible future home dates to use them on, but nothing extroardinary.

Jets have become more popular as the week has gone on, unfortunately, as has Pittsburgh.

Tampa Bay is a late bloomer, I'll monitor over the next hour as the news on Cam Newton comes out.
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Old 09-07-2014, 11:37 AM   #2619
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Denver doesn't really have future value untill weeks 14 and 17 unless you are taking them on the road.

Denver is sharp pick this week imo.
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Old 09-07-2014, 01:31 PM   #2620
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Denver was the play for many reasons. When later in the season they have all their future value, the first time you won't want to be on them because they are the most popular team. We're already way deep by that point. If they don't survive you won't want to be on them again. Saving Denver made no sense. They were the biggest +EV pick this week.
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Old 09-07-2014, 02:44 PM   #2621
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

How is Denver the sharp pick lol. I disagree. The colts are a good team. Too much risk by taking Denver and burning them for no later use.
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Old 09-07-2014, 03:08 PM   #2622
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Please look at Denvers schedule and tell me what future value they have before week 13.

The Colts have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Really not a good spot for the Colts.
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Old 09-07-2014, 07:56 PM   #2623
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by Jkpoker10 View Post
How is Denver the sharp pick lol.
Math. Win % taking taken from the betting market and pick popularity. The goals is to increase expected value with each selection. With multiple entries there is math for that too, but with a single entry it is hard to justify not taking a team the betting market has 77% to win while only 3.5% of survivor entrants selected them. If your pool is ultra sharp then maybe Philly makes sense, but in most pools it wouldn't.
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Old 09-07-2014, 07:59 PM   #2624
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by CohibaBehike View Post
Please look at Denvers schedule and tell me what future value they have before week 13.
Next week (Week 2)
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Old 09-07-2014, 08:32 PM   #2625
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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How is Denver the sharp pick lol. I disagree. The colts are a good team. Too much risk by taking Denver and burning them for no later use.
Denver is a good play for tonight.
JKpoker - you from ny?
I'm a ny player. I have a sportsbook question. How do I pm?
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