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09-03-2014 , 04:14 PM

#2576

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,718

Quote:

Originally Posted by accobra_kid

I have more faith in the people with tens of thousands of dollars riding on setting a correct line than I do in my own ability to handicap games.

amen!

Quote

09-03-2014 , 08:44 PM

#2577

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,767

I learned itt that favorites never lose outright. Wow! Who knew. Lol

Quote

09-03-2014 , 11:08 PM

#2578

Jkpoker10

veteran

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 2,982

Quote:

Originally Posted by PropPlayer

It pays $15K regardless of entries. Last year I was one of 3 that survived and got paid the $5K quick enough (some hassle chasing reps on forums to get verified but after that was reasonable). Last year it had small value to those buying max entries. The sportsbook.com $100K one for a few years didn't have value (they collected more than $100K). The payouts are fixed. Last years was barely marketed at all and the sportsbook was very new add on. This year I would guess it won't be +EV but that's only a guess. I don't think it will have overlay. Is comparable pools to join elsewhere that pay 100%. But likewise not bad a gamble even if it pays short and want more pools to play.

I just think its going to suck if they have $20k worth of entries and pay 15k. I entered 15 times (hopefully have a few sweats at end of year but who knows....bc I've never been in a survivor pool).

Also to the guy saying he likes to take jets. I like your logic. Never argue with ML from Vegas imo. I think the fact the jets have no real value down the road makes them a solid pick. This is if you have multiple entries. If I was in 1-3 survivor pools..... I probably would be more skeptical about picking the jets.

Quote

09-04-2014 , 12:26 AM

#2579

CohibaBehike

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 3,651

Jets do face the Bills twice. Always value there.

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09-04-2014 , 12:54 AM

#2580

Rawlz517

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 58,241

I advise not to get cute week 1. Seems like every year there are a couple team predicted to do good that fall flat and a couple that are predicted to be bad surprising people.

Think I'm going Philly but I really also hate being on the same team as 75% of the league.

Quote

09-04-2014 , 03:09 AM

#2581

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Taking Denver in the pools in which we never have to make double picks. Detroit, NYJ, Pitt in the others. sprinkle of Houston & KC in my tiebreaker pool. Go Jags

Quote

09-04-2014 , 09:42 AM

#2582

Cosines11

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 4,566

What's up guys - I'm new to Survivor format. I'm in an huge league but we can use the same team as many times as we want throughout the season. Not picking on spread - just pick 1 game, 1 winner per week.

Philly has to be the pick week 1, yes?

Last edited by Cosines11; 09-04-2014 at 09:52 AM.

Quote

09-04-2014 , 10:27 AM

#2583

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,767

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cosines11

Just chop now.

Quote

09-04-2014 , 01:31 PM

#2584

Cosines11

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 4,566

Quote:

Originally Posted by EddyB66

Just chop now.

Thanks for the input!

Quote

09-04-2014 , 01:39 PM

#2585

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,718

Quote:

Originally Posted by assblast

Right, just b/c a team satisfies those criteria does not make them a good selection.

So wouldn't you say your #1 rule is picking a team with a good chance to win?

Quote

09-04-2014 , 01:41 PM

#2586

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,718

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cosines11

Probably not because it's likely everyone else is picking Philly too. Try to win the pool. Pick a different team with good win odds.

Quote

09-04-2014 , 01:56 PM

#2587

Cosines11

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 4,566

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

Probably not because it's likely everyone else is picking Philly too. Try to win the pool. Pick a different team with good win odds.

Even if I can pick the same team every week if I wanted to? I understand that most people will be picking Philly but early on and especially with a heavily favored match-up I would think that being safe the first couple of weeks would make sense.

Quote

09-04-2014 , 03:10 PM

#2588

wamplerr

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 1,233

Quote:

Originally Posted by PropPlayer

Survivor Grid actually considers all of that green and has Denver as being the highest +EV pick. Obviously I hadn't looked at it in advanced though as my #2 thought on most EV was Jets which they have #5 but very close to 2nd. I didn't run the math but had it pretty close and Denver is highest EV this week but that relies that the pools #'s will match the ones they are basing it on. Pools I've played in the past never do.

SurvivorGrid actually does not consider all that Green. EV is only based on this week's win percentage vs popularity. I have a small issue with their calculation but it's close enough. Taking future value into account is much harder, since you would have to estimate future popularity too.

The name of the game is basically weighing this week's EV vs Future Value. You've also got to make sure you don't get left with a dry week with no good picks, and once you get to the endgame there can be some interesting picks.

Some weeks it's easy to do, some weeks it's hard. I consider this a hard week and I will be spreading my picks out.

Quote

09-04-2014 , 03:55 PM

#2589

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,718

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cosines11

"safe"

but if you're in a 100 person pool, and everyone else picks philly, you are better off just picking jacksonville. gives you about a 20% chance to win the whole pool, whereas you pick philly you keep your 1% chance to win the pool.

Quote

09-04-2014 , 04:18 PM

#2590

rakeme

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 6,715

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cosines11

That's the correct strategy, anyone else who says pick a team to be "different" is wrong. Now if you think there's another team that's as much of a lock as the Eagles, then go ahead and pick them. But I'm not seeing any other locks this week.

Quote

09-04-2014 , 04:22 PM

#2591

Cosines11

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 4,566

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

For sure. As I said, I'm a complete noob with this ****. FWIW there's well over 1k people in this thing. Looks like this isn't as simple as I thought, though.

Quote

09-04-2014 , 04:24 PM

#2592

rakeme

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 6,715

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cosines11

For sure. As I said, I'm a complete noob with this ****. FWIW there's well over 1k people in this thing. Looks like this isn't as simple as I thought, though.

It's all about survival, let the people get "tricky" and eliminate themselves in week 1 while you take the lock.

Quote

09-04-2014 , 04:26 PM

#2593

Cosines11

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 4,566

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

Quote:

Originally Posted by rakeme

Quote

09-04-2014 , 04:29 PM

#2594

rakeme

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 6,715

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cosines11

You have to decide for yourself, there's two strategies that people think are right in these things. The one side likes to gamble it up and be "different" while there's another side who thinks it's correct to play it safe each week.

Quote

09-04-2014 , 04:44 PM

#2595

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,718

Quote:

Originally Posted by rakeme

The one side likes to gamble it up and be "different".

this is the mathematical side that is statistically correct. we get into this every year.

assume 100 person pool.

there are 20 donks in it that big the biggest favourite every single week. at the end of the season either those people lose, or the split the prize pool 20 ways.

then there is another group of people that takes teams that are 5% less likely to win in a given week. they are almost just as likely to win, yet if the favoured team gets knocked out, 20 people are gone and their equity is much greater.

Quote

09-04-2014 , 04:51 PM

#2596

rakeme

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 6,715

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

Eventually though, later in the season there will be games where you have to "gamble" it up since you used alot of the good teams already. I just don't see the point in risking everything on week 1 instead of trying to survive until later and then being forced to "gamble" it up by default in the later weeks. In a 100 person pool it's going to be extremely rare to see a 20 way split imo. At least mine are rarely that way (past 3 years in an 80 person pool I'm in there's been 1 winner).

Quote

09-04-2014 , 04:54 PM

#2597

DisGunBGud

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 23,708

I have Philly locked in but the more I stare at it the wearier I get

Quote

09-04-2014 , 04:57 PM

#2598

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,718

I guess you didn't want to gamble in week 2 of 2012 and took the Patriots along with 50% of the rest of the pool and lost. That was a great day. 2 weeks in, pool equity is doubled.

Quote

09-04-2014 , 05:07 PM

#2599

Cosines11

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 4,566

Quote:

Originally Posted by rakeme

The point in MY league is that it's not possible to use teams up. You can pick the same team every week if you want.

Quote

09-04-2014 , 05:11 PM

#2600

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,718

if that's the case denver should definitely be the pick this week. philly is 80% win, denver is 75%.

philly is picked by 43% of the public, denver is picked by 3%

their win %'s are similar enough. the main reason people aren't picking denver is because of their future value.

even if you couldn't pick the same team again i'd still recommend denver over philly. really, being allowed to pick the same team again and again just gives you more options, it doesn't mean you should be a sheep and follow the herd.

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