I'm leaning toward KC, just to get away from the Eagles who are the popular pick by far. Bears are another thought.

A little off topic but is the survivor pool run by carbon a good play? 1st entry is $20, 2-5 $15, and 6-10 $10. If I did it, I would enter 10 times. $15k to winner or split up among winners. Reason I ask is what if they take in over $15k. I tried to look at rules and they said nothing about overlay.

Why would you burn Denver in one of their tougher games of the season when they get Oakland twice plus home games with KC, San Diego, Miami & Buffalo?

Best selections this week are Philly or the Bears.

Here's a good survivor helper.
http://www.survivorgrid.com/

This is amusing, the site you pumped shows exactly why Denver is a superior pick to Chicago and Philadelphia.

Denver is a solid pick this week because only 3% of people are picking them. Yes they have a ton of future value, but two of their best spots aren't until weeks 14 and 17. Most leagues will be over by then.

The Eagles and Bears are slightly more likely to win than Denver, but they have less future value and are way more popular.

It's a tradeoff, FV and popularity on one side of the coin, versus win probability on the other. The EV calculation on Survivor Grid shows that Denver is the superior pick this week.

Wayyy too much color green next to Denver on that chart to burn them for minimal EV in week 1.

Im new to survival pools and thinking about entering a friendly double elimination pool where the survivors at the end of the regular season chop the money. There's ~15 people in the pool ATM. Is this even +EV, I spent 30 seconds on google and it seems this sh*t is solved.

Anyone know of any 2+2 run pools for this season?

Search by thread title: Survivor

There's a few

any thoughts on the best strategy for being in a league with 3 entries?

Would definitely go Jets this week

Have 5 total entries in 3 different pools. Definitely thinking the jets are a good pick. Opening up at home. Also like the eagles as I'm suremany others do. Would rather save Denver for later in the season when you "need a win". They are lethal at home so when there are few good picks available you can take them

Preds needs some people

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/44...-pool-1470998/

Biggest pinnacle favourite every week. If it seems like that's what the others are doing and there are weeks with another strong favourite, differentiate then.

Never understood the logic of "can't use this team too early" when the majority of people are done in a few weeks. (unless you're in such a massive league that you have to go the whole season or something, which case I'd probably take Chicago)

(Lions/Jets are still wayyyyyy too risky for me, even despite Oak starting a rookie QB, and the Lions are always the Lions, they find a way)

Taking biggest fav is a fine strategy, even tho maj will take them too--people take all sorts of teams and eliminate themselves along the way. Though that's gotten me knocked out by week 3 a lot of the time as well.

Don't save Denver, their future value is in the last 4 weeks of season. Too long of a Horizon imo. And lol, please do not take the Jets here. Take Denver. a 7 point home favorite that like 5% of pools are going to be on, seems like a no brainer.

Why not? The Jets are 70% to win this week, which is only 5% lower than Denver. They have absolutely no future value whatsoever, and they're only picked by 1 in 20 entries.

Because I'm a life long fan and they are so lol. Go ahead, take the Jets. I will say I told you so.

Much thanks housenuts!

I'm just as eager to lol at the Jets as much as the next guy.

But even though they suck, their Pinnacle moneyline still implies a win probability of ~70%. That's no different than SEA or DET, and it is only marginally lower than PIT/DEN/CHI.

We're going to need something more concrete than just a hunch.

Definitely don't take the Jets. They probably have the worst secondary in the league right now with Milner hurt and with zero depth.

This is all factored into the moneyline.

I have more faith in the people with tens of thousands of dollars riding on setting a correct line than I do in my own ability to handicap games.

It pays $15K regardless of entries. Last year I was one of 3 that survived and got paid the $5K quick enough (some hassle chasing reps on forums to get verified but after that was reasonable). Last year it had small value to those buying max entries. The sportsbook.com $100K one for a few years didn't have value (they collected more than $100K). The payouts are fixed. Last years was barely marketed at all and the sportsbook was very new add on. This year I would guess it won't be +EV but that's only a guess. I don't think it will have overlay. Is comparable pools to join elsewhere that pay 100%. But likewise not bad a gamble even if it pays short and want more pools to play.

Survivor Grid actually considers all of that green and has Denver as being the highest +EV pick. Obviously I hadn't looked at it in advanced though as my #2 thought on most EV was Jets which they have #5 but very close to 2nd. I didn't run the math but had it pretty close and Denver is highest EV this week but that relies that the pools #'s will match the ones they are basing it on. Pools I've played in the past never do.

so taking Oakland over the Jets this week seems to be fine under those rules. For some reason I don't think it's a good pick.