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Old 01-10-2014, 05:55 PM   #2526
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

lol yea I hear ya...NE-SEA-DEN would be a solid line otherwise. How many left in your pool(s) ?
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Old 01-10-2014, 11:09 PM   #2527
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I'm passionate enough about this thread to post in here even when I'm not entered in an NFL playoff survivor pool.
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Old 01-11-2014, 03:58 AM   #2528
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Pick Denver. Allows you to see what he picks and time to hedge. Also this is the best game to edge as Chargers are the biggest underdogs
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Old 01-11-2014, 01:37 PM   #2529
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Pretty sure my opponent will be on DEN most likely, or NE...plus I'm a Chargers fan, so if they pull off the upset again not only will it likely knock out my opponent but it'll make that victory extra sweet hah and sticking with SEA gives me separation and I trust SEA the most of any of these picks...hard to go against my 1st instinct again.

Also Chargers are biggest underdog? Spread wise the highest spread is on that game, but SD ML and New O ML are exact same (or at least on 5 dimes at +335 each). Survivor Grid shows more EV to SEA over DEN 1.09 compared to 1.03 and has SEA at actually 78.8% win compared to 77.5% for DEN...also SEA is slightly less popular at 27% compared to 32% for DEN.

Last edited by ProfBets; 01-11-2014 at 01:47 PM.
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Old 01-11-2014, 07:46 PM   #2530
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Colts +7.0
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Old 01-12-2014, 01:17 PM   #2531
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

so much for separation...we were both on Seattle, but I'll take it.
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Old 01-16-2014, 12:28 PM   #2532
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

SEA or DEN if u had a choice?
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Old 01-16-2014, 12:46 PM   #2533
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Go for SEA - they are so strong at home and they have the Niners number.

Too many question marks in the Pats-Broncos game although it should be an excellent game.
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Old 01-23-2014, 12:05 PM   #2534
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

and it's going all the way to the superbowl...unbelievable...still 2 of us left.
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Old 01-23-2014, 02:49 PM   #2535
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No it's not. With 2 people left and only 1 game to choose from, both you and him will take Denver. If he takes Seattle, you'll laugh at him
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Old 01-23-2014, 08:51 PM   #2536
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

then it would be automatic chop, I like SEA's chances tho...and most of the pool has already been guaranteed we're each guaranteed 3 with 1.5 to play for.
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Old 01-23-2014, 09:02 PM   #2537
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In that case, your opponent will be doing the laughing
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Old 01-24-2014, 12:55 PM   #2538
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

so if I wanna hedge do I take into account for the hedge calculator the total win or what the win would be if we both chopped in the event we were both on DEN?
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Old 01-24-2014, 01:44 PM   #2539
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Pick Denver, they are more likely to win than Seattle.

If he picks Denver, you chop. Nothing you can do about this.

If he picks Seattle, go bet Seattle straight up for roughly half the amount or just let it ride knowing he's giving up value.

This assumes there is some lead time between picks getting revealed and kickoff.
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Old 01-24-2014, 02:23 PM   #2540
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

picks aren't revealed until after kickoff
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Old 01-24-2014, 02:44 PM   #2541
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Thinking about just proposing a chop so we all get our guaranteed $ and the chop way faster, very sure we'll both pick the same team for super bowl anyways.
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Old 01-26-2014, 01:03 PM   #2542
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

gtfo
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Old 01-28-2014, 06:23 PM   #2543
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

if there's a relatively good chance you know what team your opponent will be on for the super bowl with just us 2 left is there value to taking that same team and also putting a bet on the other side ML?

The way I see it the final amount has a good or very good chance of just being chopped up if we both are on the same team and thus I could put a bet that's a bit smaller then the chop would be on the opposing side's ML and it's somewhat of a free roll. If the picked team wins, you win the chop minus the side bet but if the picked team loses...you still win the chop plus an additional amount on the side bet. Also the side bet would be less then the total chop amount so that no matter what you still come out ahead.

I see this as a favorable alternative instead of just taking the unpopular team but having the entire amount left at risk and also at risk of winning zero.

Last edited by ProfBets; 01-28-2014 at 06:30 PM.
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Old 02-04-2014, 11:46 AM   #2544
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

everything worked out as it should, anyways cya guys next season...sure was one hell of a season this year.
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Old 02-04-2014, 11:55 AM   #2545
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by ProfBets View Post
if there's a relatively good chance you know what team your opponent will be on for the super bowl with just us 2 left is there value to taking that same team and also putting a bet on the other side ML?

The way I see it the final amount has a good or very good chance of just being chopped up if we both are on the same team and thus I could put a bet that's a bit smaller then the chop would be on the opposing side's ML and it's somewhat of a free roll. If the picked team wins, you win the chop minus the side bet but if the picked team loses...you still win the chop plus an additional amount on the side bet. Also the side bet would be less then the total chop amount so that no matter what you still come out ahead.

I see this as a favorable alternative instead of just taking the unpopular team but having the entire amount left at risk and also at risk of winning zero.
Sorry, I know it's too late now, but I just saw this. If you didn't want the entire thing at risk, you should just pick the same team as your opponent. Then the money will be chopped evenly. It doesn't make sense to take the same team and then bet on the other team, unless you think betting on the other team is +EV without considering the survivor pool. You will win more when the other team wins and win less when the other team loses.

If betting on the other team is +EV, then you should bet. If they are not, you shouldn't. I think they are two dependent decisions.
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Old 02-04-2014, 11:52 PM   #2546
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I thought they were EV and took half the chop amount on SEA ML on the side, it ended up working out good as everyone saw...feel like kinda a pussy for not taking them ftw in the main survivor pool but I'll take that situation everytime; guaranteed cash no matter how the super bowl ends up (if DEN wins +395 or if SEA wins +1250) instead of DEN wins +0 vs SEA wins +1490 ontop of the guaranteed amount we already had chopped.
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Old 08-31-2014, 08:16 AM   #2547
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Code:
PHILADELPHIA  Jacksonville -500  49%
DENVER        Indianapolis -310   2%
CHICAGO       Buffalo      -280  18%
PITTSBURGH    Cleveland    -270   7%
SEATTLE       Green Bay    -235   1%
NEW YORK      Oakland      -235   3%
San Francisco DALLAS       -235   2%
KANSAS CITY   Tennessee    -208   6%
DETROIT       New York     -208   2%
New England   MIAMI        -205   3%
ST LOUIS      Minnesota    -202   1%
ARIZONA       San Diego    -165   0%
New Orleans   ATLANTA      -144   1%
HOUSTON       Washington   -139   0%
BALTIMORE     Cincinnati    off   0%
TAMPA BAY     Carolina      off   0%
Home team is in CAPS. Lines are from Pinnacle as of 8:00am Sunday. Second total is popularity on Yahoo! Discuss.
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Old 08-31-2014, 03:11 PM   #2548
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Probably picking Eagles or Steelers
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Old 08-31-2014, 08:41 PM   #2549
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

If having just a single entry, burn Denver now. Not many people will and you'll fade having them in coming weeks when they are a popular pick. If have some gamble and multiple entries use the next on the Jets, they have not an ounce of expected future value.
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Old 08-31-2014, 09:06 PM   #2550
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I suppose Philly will be the most popular pick this week, across the board.
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