Quote:
Originally Posted by ProfBets
if there's a relatively good chance you know what team your opponent will be on for the super bowl with just us 2 left is there value to taking that same team and also putting a bet on the other side ML?
The way I see it the final amount has a good or very good chance of just being chopped up if we both are on the same team and thus I could put a bet that's a bit smaller then the chop would be on the opposing side's ML and it's somewhat of a free roll. If the picked team wins, you win the chop minus the side bet but if the picked team loses...you still win the chop plus an additional amount on the side bet. Also the side bet would be less then the total chop amount so that no matter what you still come out ahead.
I see this as a favorable alternative instead of just taking the unpopular team but having the entire amount left at risk and also at risk of winning zero.
Sorry, I know it's too late now, but I just saw this. If you didn't want the entire thing at risk, you should just pick the same team as your opponent. Then the money will be chopped evenly. It doesn't make sense to take the same team and then bet on the other team, unless you think betting on the other team is +EV without considering the survivor pool. You will win more when the other team wins and win less when the other team loses.
If betting on the other team is +EV, then you should bet. If they are not, you shouldn't. I think they are two dependent decisions.