NFL Survivor Picks - Page 101 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

makes me sick, that game was literally 1 play away from being 31-27 Falcons up with less then 2 mins left (ATL got an onside kick and was on the SF 10 yd line with a score of 24-27 if u didn't watch it) if it wasn't for that pick 6...the herd survives again (60% of my pool was on them).

Falcons held em to 3 points 1st half and couldn't get a single stop 2nd half tho they scored on every or every drive cept 1, dunno where that D went tho.

Last edited by ProfBets; 12-24-2013 at 03:22 AM.

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12-24-2013 , 12:39 PM

#2503

anthai.lu

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 475

What a game...heck of a play by the Niners defense at the end.

Very nice grab by Snelling on the onside kick recovery.

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12-27-2013 , 06:51 PM

#2504

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

10 left in roughly 18k pool, so far 6/10 have agreed on some kind of deal but it must be unanimous before kickoff...i suggested 1.2 each then 5.9 for winner, others suggested 1.5 each 2.9 for winner. Hopefully can get some of the equity agreed to be paid out before kickoff for wk 17.

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12-27-2013 , 10:59 PM

#2505

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

3 people left, pays $15K. I have Chargers this week, no one else does.

I've been in the US the past couple weeks. I'll be on at flight back to Thailand during the start of 1PM games. Should be online in time to watch the Chargers one.

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12-28-2013 , 04:39 AM

#2506

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

great spot to have them, KC is locked in the 5 seed and Reid is notorious for resting starters...even said he would be mixing and matching for this game. Also if Balt and MIA lose, Chargers can win out to get the wild card spot but even if that scenario doesn't happen they should still be motivated to finish off their season at home and as mentioned KC won't be playing some starters and SD already beat KC at full strength on the road.

GL, good spot indeed especially with no one else having them left.
What other teams do u expect the other 2 to be on?

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12-29-2013 , 12:34 AM

#2507

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

Indy, Saints or Denver if u had the choice?

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12-29-2013 , 05:10 AM

#2508

just_mo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

Denver > Indy > Saints for me

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12-29-2013 , 03:28 PM

#2509

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

Super long travel and I'm so tired. The other two picked the Steelers who are up 14-0 at the half. I was in such great shape so many weeks here that it would suck to win nothing. Being so tired now, not wanting to Google what is going with team starters, playoff scenarios etc. I just hedged off it. Assuming Steelers hang on to win then I get $4040 regardless if Chargers win or lose.

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12-30-2013 , 05:58 PM

#2510

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

nice good win Prop what bet did u have going? That SD game was heart attack worthy and who woulda known it woulda been that close and to OT vs KC non starters not to mention they shoulda had another chance at taking that field goal but we'll take it!

Got through with Denver, 10 remaining from 1799 initial no one was eliminated this week but we reached a partial deal 1.3k to each of the remaining 10 and will keep playing it out 4.99k to the winner...people gonna be dropping like flies next week, some tough games to pick coming up.

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01-03-2014 , 01:11 AM

#2511

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

Anyone know of a survivor grid type site that keeps going into the playoffs? Mine stopped after week 17, would be nice to see something with EV, Win %, Pick/Popularity % etc...or is everyone just on Cinci and GG?

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01-03-2014 , 12:25 PM

#2512

accobra_kid

$tat$ King

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 15,308

Quote:

Originally Posted by ProfBets

SurvivorGrid.com has what you're after.

Are you picking a game this Saturday and a game on Sunday? Or just one for the entire WC weekend?

It really depends on how popular Cincinnati will be in your individual pool. You post enough in these threads to know you can't always pick the most popular team. San Diego is the contrarian pick that's worth considering. If you get that game correct, you win your pool a high % of the time.

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01-03-2014 , 03:02 PM

#2513

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

Only have to pick 1 Team all weekend, oh ok great...that's actually the site I've been using but it wasn't updated to include this week's picks until now, thanks! Interesting what they have as the top picks with the most EV despite being the underdogs.

Gonna be a tough week, I don't like or trust many of the favorites.

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01-04-2014 , 02:08 PM

#2514

accobra_kid

$tat$ King

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 15,308

Green Bay looks like a pretty good pick. +117 moneyline at Pinnacle, yet only taken by 3% on OFP and 2% on Yahoo. Pretty good alternative if you don't want to go balls deep by taking San Diego.

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01-04-2014 , 06:41 PM

#2515

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

I don't like that match up at all for GB tho they can't stop the run and especially in that cold weather it should favor the better defense (SF) and run game but do you think GB will have that mojo going with Rodgers back, Lacy for their run game, and at home with more experience in the cold weather?

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01-04-2014 , 06:51 PM

#2516

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

Phil seems less popular then SF might be a play, but I don't like that defense...also no matter how many points they put on the board usually doesn't use up that much of the clock and despite Saints struggles on the road I really don't think Phil has an answer for Graham or that screen game, but Saints RB is out.

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01-05-2014 , 05:03 PM

#2517

accobra_kid

$tat$ King

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 15,308

So what was the pick distribution, and more importantly, who did you pick?

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01-05-2014 , 06:25 PM

#2518

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

sick week so far, 2 were on Philly (OUT), 6 were on Cinci (OUT) and the last 2 of us are on SF...was too pussy to change to GB last minute ftw but SF was my 1st instinct for this week and that's carried me through a field of 1799 players since the start of the season, so it's hard to go against it at this point.

F U 5 dimes I tried to Hedge, put some on GB ML but my card wouldn't process that I've used successfully before on there! Gonna hate myself if that woulda hit but we'll see.

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01-05-2014 , 09:04 PM

#2519

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

Got through with SF woot down to final 2 me vs them...5dimes deposit not working actually saved me money hah wonder if the other person is gonna want to chop the remaining funds evenly or play it out...either way works for me, can hedge some on opposing side in future if need be. Glad those chumps got knocked out...they've been just playing the highest spread all year long and last second penalties have saved their ass numerous times.

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01-10-2014 , 05:28 PM

#2520

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

think I like SEA or SF the most of the favorites this week...down to final 2 myself included...would it be a good spot to hedge New O moneyline? We've chopped most of it but still a lil bit to play for to go to the winner.

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01-10-2014 , 05:30 PM

#2521

accobra_kid

$tat$ King

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 15,308

Quote:

Originally Posted by ProfBets

Aren't the Pats the obvious pick this week?

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01-10-2014 , 05:36 PM

#2522

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

I wanna stay away from that game and Broncos because I think they're more likely to get upset and also I would expect my opponent to be on either Broncos or Pats.

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01-10-2014 , 05:39 PM

#2523

accobra_kid

$tat$ King

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 15,308

You both advance a high % of the time.

Then what?

Your pick now almost commits you to a path for the next three weeks.

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01-10-2014 , 05:45 PM

#2524

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

Oh, also to note...teams are reusable in this pool so future value goes straight out the window.

I was talking sht about these type of pools at beginning of the season but as it turned out this was only pool I'm still in and luckily down to the final 2 (me vs them) from an initial 1799 players. Final 10 chopped up 1.3 each and agreed to play for final 4.99 but after last week 8 were eliminated, so the final 2 of us agreed on another partial deal...we're each now guaranteed 3 each with 1.59 left to play out for the winner.