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Old 09-11-2009, 03:10 PM   #1
BDaws
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NFL Survivor Picks

For those that do not know, in a survivor pool you pick a team who is going to win that week. If your team wins, you stay alive. You continue to pick teams for the ensuing weeks, and keep picking until your team loses. The catch is that you cannot pick a team more than once.

I'm a square and don't know much about the NFL.

I was thinking of taking the Saints in week 1. They are 13 point favorites over the Lions. The other 13 point spread differential is the Ravens over the Chiefs. I figure the Ravens are probably a better overall team and more worthy of saving for later weeks.

Is this fine for week 1?

Thanks for any help you can offer.
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Old 09-11-2009, 05:38 PM   #2
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I think either NO or BAL is fine for week 1. I think more people are on NO so you could take BAL and eliminate over half your pool if Detroit were to upset. This early in the season, saving BAL might be good too but power rankings change so fast in the NFL.
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Old 09-11-2009, 05:51 PM   #3
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I feel like BAL is more likely to win, but NO doesn't have any other easy games this season, whereas BAL plays CLE (x2), CIN (x2), and OAK. I think I'm going with NO here even though everyone else is too.
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Old 09-11-2009, 06:29 PM   #4
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Take the Steelers. It's a lock.
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Old 09-11-2009, 08:20 PM   #5
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Take the Steelers. It's a lock.
it wouldn't let me pick them in yahoo for some reason....anyone know why are they too good
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Old 09-11-2009, 10:38 PM   #6
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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it wouldn't let me pick them in yahoo for some reason....anyone know why are they too good
because the game already happened?
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Old 09-11-2009, 11:08 PM   #7
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

lulz...got one to bite
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Old 09-11-2009, 11:41 PM   #8
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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I feel like BAL is more likely to win, but NO doesn't have any other easy games this season, whereas BAL plays CLE (x2), CIN (x2), and OAK. I think I'm going with NO here even though everyone else is too.
Yah this is what I said in the SE forum a couple weeks ago. I look at the Saints schedule and see that their next 2 easiest home games are the Bucs and Jets. I don't trust them vs. mediocre teams like that so I'll take them now.
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Old 09-12-2009, 06:47 PM   #9
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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lulz...got one to bite
nice level bro :P
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Old 09-12-2009, 06:53 PM   #10
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

are you just picking winners or is the spread involved in your selection?
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Old 09-12-2009, 07:30 PM   #11
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

thought the best picks were no, balt, and sea

sea is gonna get to play stl again later in season so rather keep them and see if they are actually back to being a contender before i take them

balt still has cincy twice

no has a tough division, has the biggest spread, and is playing the worst team in the nfl so i chose them
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Old 09-15-2009, 06:55 PM   #12
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

In week 2, I'm thinking of taking the Skins as 10 point favorites at home against the Rams. The other 10 point spreads are the Vikings on the road against the Lions and the GB Packers at home against the Bengals.

GB has games against the Rams, Lions, and Browns in weeks 3, 6, and 7 so I figure it might be worth it to save them.

The Vikings have the Rams in week 5 and the Lions in week 10, and overall seem pretty solid so I'm holding off on them as well.

One consideration is that everyone in the pool is from VA and may be hard on the Skins. That's still prob not enough to swing it, right?
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Old 09-15-2009, 10:07 PM   #13
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

skins could be a good play. i generally try and stay away from road teams in a competition like this. saving the vikings for week 10 sounds reasonable. you've also got to consider the health of the vikes though. favre is old and said he may not even play every week (i.e. maybe sit out the lowly lions in week 10?) and AD has been somewhat injury prone. so maybe jump on them while they're healthy.

with all that said i dont see the vikes or skins losing but i just cant seem to trust the skins enough to take them this early in the game. ill take a good team @ a bad team over a mediocre team vs. a bad team.
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Old 09-16-2009, 01:16 AM   #14
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I have looked at the games also and can agree with you that the only games that I am considering are the Skins vs. Rams, the Vikings @ Detroit, and Packers vs Bengals.

With that said I think the Bengals looked terribad last week but got a little too much talent for me to risk them when I can take the Pack at home against Detroit later.

As a Lions fan myself I can tell you that @ home the Lions ALWAYS play the Vikings tough and this game will be no walk in the park for them. I fully except ADP to run all over them but eventually the Lions will put 8 in the box and make Favre beat them. I expect the Vikings to win but not my favorite game.

With that said I myself will be taking the Skins @ home against the Rams. Stop SJax and you will have no problem beating the Rams at home.

Not the most clear cut week imo but this is my pick

EDIT: another main reason is obv the NFC east is a beast and don't like the Skins against any of those 3 in a pick'em leauge. A steal to use them this week.

Last edited by Gandolfandiari; 09-16-2009 at 01:22 AM.
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Old 09-16-2009, 01:34 AM   #15
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

packers and vikings should be saved for their home game vs lions where they'll be roughly -13.
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Old 09-16-2009, 02:03 AM   #16
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Washington seems like the best pick this week seeing as their at home vs. a team who got shutout last week against SEA. With Haynesworth Washington should be very tough against the run this season.
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Old 09-18-2009, 01:31 AM   #17
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by Scruffs Mcguff View Post
skins could be a good play. i generally try and stay away from road teams in a competition like this.
Avoiding road teams makes no sense. A 10 point spread already factors in home field. There is no logical reason to want to avoid a road team. A 10 point home underdog is just as likely to upset as a 10 point road underdog.
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Old 09-18-2009, 03:34 AM   #18
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Avoiding road teams makes no sense. A 10 point spread already factors in home field. There is no logical reason to want to avoid a road team. A 10 point home underdog is just as likely to upset as a 10 point road underdog.
public tends to overbet road favs mmaking home dogs viable.
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Old 09-18-2009, 04:56 PM   #19
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

the broncos will beat the browns, but i don't know much about football
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Old 09-21-2009, 06:48 PM   #20
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Is Baltimore the overwhelming pick this week (playing Cle at home)?
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Old 09-21-2009, 10:36 PM   #21
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

^^^^Be hard to find a safer one.
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Old 09-22-2009, 01:33 AM   #22
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Is Baltimore the overwhelming pick this week (playing Cle at home)?
I was going to ask the same thing.

I guess it would be nice to save the Ravens for later but I really can't see myself picking anyone else this week.
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Old 09-22-2009, 03:25 AM   #23
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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I was going to ask the same thing.

I guess it would be nice to save the Ravens for later but I really can't see myself picking anyone else this week.
The way I see it, there are 4 truly awful teams in the league; Cleveland, Detroit, KC, and StL with Tampa and Jacksonville being pretty bad as well. This week, these teams are playing:

Cle @ Bal
Det vs Was
KC @ Phi
Stl vs GB
Tam vs NYG
Jax vs Ten

I have already used Washington so I cant go against Det, and even if I wanted to, I could see a potential upset here given Washington's ineptness at QB. I am tempted to go with Phi over KC, however, they play tampa at home in week 5 after coming off of a bye week which should give enough time for either McNabb to heal or Garcia to re-acquaint himself with the offense. Green bay has 2 games with Detroit, as well as games at both Cleveland and Tampa. The Giants over Tampa is very close too, but I prefer them next week at KC. I like tennessee to win in Jacksonville, but think the safer play for them is in week 8 or 14 at home against Jacksonville and St Louis respectively.
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Old 09-22-2009, 03:40 AM   #24
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Yeah Baltimore is the play this week, which is also why saving them Week 1 was a good idea. I would hate to choose a different team than BAL this week.
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Old 09-24-2009, 12:35 PM   #25
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Yeah Baltimore is the play this week, which is also why saving them Week 1 was a good idea. I would hate to choose a different team than BAL this week.
Well i'm going to have to find another one. I used Balt week 1 and initially had Philly for this week. I swear if the Eagles can't beat KC even with Kolb then thats pretty terrible. Only other game I am considering is NYG.

So there's got to be others out there who used Balt.

Advice for this week? Philly? NYG? Others?
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