You have $750,000 to your name and a group of you are in Vegas. This $750,000 is your life savings.

One of your party is hammering frantically on your hotel room door at 1a.m and when you open it he says "I need $500,000, I am out of money in the casino but am playing a game downstairs where I have a 7-in-8 chance of turning the $500,000 into $1m"

Would you lend him the cash?

He has no means of paying you back if he loses.

This is a philosophy problem, and an economics problem (marginal utility), and a sociology problem. It's not a sports betting problem. So ask it in a different forum.

Yes! Good chances

What did you do??

How much of the million are you going to get?

lol, no

I bet (a) you're a real charmer with the ladies, eh?

Or rather (b), you live at home with "mom" and have never had a girlfriend?

I'll wager the deeds to my house it's (b) but please prove me wrong?

Why would you loan him the money? Best case scenario is he wins, pays you back and you’re even. Worst case scenario is he loses and you’re out 2/3 of your net worth (and very possibly, a friend, if he is one). These are the only 2 scenarios.

The only reason to even consider this is if you get a percentage of the win. A super large percentage if you’re putting up all the money. And you go down with him and verify first. A loan doesn’t make any sense.

And is this game somehow specific to him? Can you not just walk downstairs and do it yourself? I’d say still give him a percentage as a finder fee if you win (especially if you’re friends).

You should be getting like 90% of the win, at least. This is assuming it’s just 7/8 random chance. If it’s based on some skill of his that you can’t do, then adjust.