Lost entries on Arizona & Tampa Bay

Took Baltimore & Washington in 2x with 1x in 17.

Last 3 weeks have been torture

I saw that 10 people chopped a large pool I was in after the week 16 games ended. 9 of the 10 had the Raiders against the Jets week 13 when the Gregg Williams zero blitz was called.

That basically sums these things up. You can map out picks, talk about separation from the pool, etc but at the end of the day there is a massive amount of luck in this.

Someone who can't name the Raiders or Jets qb or head coach likely won a massive amount of money just mashing buttons and knowing the Jets were 0-12. "They stink so let's just pick against them."

In fact in reviewing some of the winners picks they basically picked the incorrect teams each week. They rode a team like the Bears this past week. They faded the Jets and Jaguars and blew good teams like the Buccaneers, Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs up front.

It didn't matter though.

Yes, it is going to take some luck to win a pool with 500+ entries (or any number, really).

Anyone here still left in the .03?

Rams butt rammed me week 15

I really regret wasting my time reading replying to one of your posts earlier this year.

Have the colts left and nobody else does, so locking them in. We have 15ppl left and for the playoffs tms reset...what strategy would you use for the playoffs obviously there’s a concern about running out of tms, but not 100% how to navigate that

Don’t take Tampa Bay in 1st round if they’re the 5

One my pools end at the conclusion of regular season and there are 10 people left, I took the Browns and 5 people are on the saints. In my other pool, I am taking the Ravens and only a couple people have them left (8 left there) but it goes through the playoffs.

Why? What did I say incorrectly? You think the people that took down the Survivor pool did so skillfully and were more deserving than other people that went deep?

Fact is that 9 out of 10 people that won had the Raiders in week 13. They needed a miracle cover 0 play. The fact that they took the Raiders in general proved they didn't know what they were doing and pure luck got them to the end.

1.The fact that the Raiders won in that fashion does not, in and of itself, make them a bad play. This result, and the fact that it occurred the same week that Minn barely hung on as chalk, became a very tilt point for a lot of players I guess. They may have been a bad play, but the manner in which they won does not impact that assessment.

2.On that note, LV/Minn from that week, and several other plays like them (NYG v Cin for example), were classic survivor pool theory decisions weighing IEV and FV/slotting etc. From a pure EV perspective, they were mathematically terrible. From a FV/slotting perspective, they were extremely strong. The appropriate weighting and balancing of those sometimes contrasting considerations is NOT solved, and one of the things (the only thing really lol) that makes this format interesting, and a cool thing to figure out.

Congrats to those who won----and will see you next season!

I would argue that taking a shaky road favorite with the majority of the pool just because they were playing the Jets and you wouldn't use them again is terrible. More so that the majority of the pool was on them.

You are skipping the fact that the reason these people used the Raiders is because they blew all their good teams the first 12 weeks. They played the Raiders and Vikings because they didn't know who to turn to.

The Dolphins were a pick that week (big favorite, low %). Same with the Seahawks (who lost), or Chiefs/Ravens (who you could make a case could have been saved for 15/16). They used those teams right out of the gate though.

I am giving zero credit to someone who took the Raiders. They backed themselves into a corner when the picks became double picks, closed their eyes fading the Jets, got a miracle Hail Mary, and then went back to the well with a team like the Bears in week 16 because they were playing the Jaguars.

If they planned this out, made good picks, and had strong teams saved for week 14-16 I would tip my cap and say they did a hell of a job.

However they won based on stone cold dumb luck. Nobody can tell me that it was orchestrated sophisticated analysis that got them to the end. They didn't deserve it, they got lucky. I may say congratulations but if I met one of those people I'd likely say, "enjoy the money, you should also play the lottery. What you did is equivalent to winning it"

Saints or Bills this week? Pool is Chicago based so saints may be under owned

Also, apparently if you don’t have a team left for the Super Bowl then the pit gets split, so no need to hold off on tms necessarily (kinda strange)

I’m leaning saints, but not sure how important they are to keep for later I.e nfc championship if the packers don’t make it or something

What is the availability of the saints and bills (and the other major wild card weekend favorites) in your pool? What other playoff teams do you have left? I would lean Bills due to more people probably having used them, but the decision is easily influenced by the availability stats.

They all reset for the playoffs...I’m pretty sure the rules get made up as we go along in this pool.

Every team is available

If you have any pools that are open to new players, please dm me. I'll share ones that I have if I enter the one you send.

I'm looking for pools with with prize pools $50,000+, preferably 25-100 buyin and double pick weeks

Nitrogen FREEROLL

Here's the email I got...

"The prize pool is set at 0.03 BTC. To be clear again, you'll be competing with other communities in the Community Survivor Pool, you won't be having your own 'private' pool like last year. Thought I'd put an emphasis on this for clarity's sake."


Please post your Nitrogen ID below to be entered into FREEROLL. You MUST have a reg date prior to August 1, 2021 to qualify.


..........

I'm looking for 1 or 2 large entry pools with $100 or less buyin that has 2x picks sprinkled in throughout the season. Let me know if you can assist. Tytyty

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Is there a good read anywhere on general Survivor Pick strategy. Not looking for a deep dive, or anyones secrets, just a general starting point on how to think about the season as a whole.

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Thank you.

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Thanks! 5207137

I'm doing a video with Sheets on Tuesday - not sure what day it'll be posted - on general Survivor strategy and looking at the season ahead

I'll post it on my Twitter when it's released