Quote:
Originally Posted by EddyB66
Chargers is who I’m targeting that week.
Here’s a question: if you knew 90% of the pool was taking a team, would you fade even if it’s a free square basically?
Eddy I think this is a good exercise for you----
Lets say there are 10 people left out of 100 entrants. Lets say it was $100 entry with winner take all. (As if now your equity is $1,000)
The slate for this week has 2 games:
Giants vs Jets
Cowboys vs Redskins
The Giants are 80% likely to win
The Cowboys are 60% likely to win
You know that the other 9 entrants are taking the Giants.
Who should you take?
The answer is: The Jets, which would give you $2000 in average resulting equity, followed by the Cowboys which would give you an average of $1760 in equity. Picking the Giants would give you exactly $1000 in equity and is a distant 3rd choice despite them being 80% likely to win.
It is somewhat important to know the math behind the answer, but more important to understand the concepts underlying it.
Do you see why this is the case?