NFL Survivor Picks - Page 189 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

Yeah, pretty much all the 6+ pt favorites this week are really strong teams. Gonna be an interesting one.

I was heavier on JAX this week than I'd originally planned for which sucks, but I'm still gonna come out way ahead with about 40% of my money advancing (I'm guessing a good 75% were eliminated this week).

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09-24-2018 , 02:15 PM

#4703

Gallagher_

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 176

Anyone have insight on how to think about double-elimination pools?

I'm pretty sure pick percentage is relatively less important, at least early on, since your opponents only get weakened with a bad pick instead of killed.

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09-24-2018 , 04:09 PM

#4704

BraveJayhawk

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Gallagher_

Anyone have insight on how to think about double-elimination pools?.

At this stage, I’d play more conservatively with entries with 0 losses

If you have a loss, I’d steer away from the obvious selections

Will get a lot more strategic when there’s less weeks to play and you can deduce who is likely to be picked by each entry each week

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09-24-2018 , 06:38 PM

#4705

BraveJayhawk

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Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Quote:

Originally Posted by EddyB66

I'm probably going Oakland on 50% of my entries this week.

Dare I ask why

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09-24-2018 , 06:48 PM

#4706

EddyB66

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk

Dare I ask why

Cleveland should be emotionally spent after winning their first game in 3 years. Raiders have played well, and if they stay a 3 point fav or better I’ll take them. If the line swings the other way, I’ll stay away most likely.

I know my rationale is lol probably, but I just hate following the masses.

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09-25-2018 , 12:26 PM

#4707

Derek123

adept

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 1,059

crazy how much of the big buyin nitrogen pools came from just a couple users...

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09-25-2018 , 12:49 PM

#4708

Gallagher_

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 176

Quote:

Originally Posted by Derek123

crazy how much of the big buyin nitrogen pools came from just a couple users...

Most of those entries came between the early Monday game and the late Monday game in Week 1.

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09-25-2018 , 01:13 PM

#4709

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,668

Quote:

Originally Posted by Derek123

crazy how much of the big buyin nitrogen pools came from just a couple users...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gallagher_

Most of those entries came between the early Monday game and the late Monday game in Week 1.

yup it was all late entries. flawed system, but i'm still in, so can't complain.

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09-25-2018 , 01:36 PM

#4710

BraveJayhawk

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Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

I'm probably going chalk this week. Will be picking between Chargers, Jaguars & Packers for all my non rebuy / double elimination pools.

Saving Patriots & Rams for later. All teams after that is a big dip in Win % and they're teams you want to have for later too (Falcons, Chiefs)

If you're going to take a flier this week, I think Steelers are a good one. Their best play remaining (8 vs Cleveland) is a likely fade spot anyway - lot of people will be on them that week)

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09-25-2018 , 04:23 PM

#4711

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,668

Quote:

Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk

I'm probably going chalk this week. Will be picking between Chargers, Jaguars & Packers for all my non rebuy / double elimination pools.

Prob going Jax, Pack and throw in some atl/pit/no

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09-28-2018 , 01:40 PM

#4712

EddyB66

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Does anyone have any early % for this week? My guess is it goes something like:

GB
Chargers
Jax

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09-28-2018 , 02:56 PM

#4713

Gallagher_

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 176

Quote:

Originally Posted by EddyB66

Does anyone have any early % for this week? My guess is it goes something like:

GB
Chargers
Jax

Order is pretty interchangeable I think, but those are the clear 3.

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09-28-2018 , 04:19 PM

#4714

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,668

https://www.survivorgrid.com/

Seems to be LAC, GB, JAX

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09-28-2018 , 04:56 PM

#4715

EddyB66

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I’m wondering if Jax is the play simply because there arent many matchups the rest of the season where I would be comfortable taking them. Luck could get it together and their defense is decent. Washington would be the only other spot.

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09-29-2018 , 11:14 AM

#4716

BraveJayhawk

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Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Who's still in the Nitrogen .06 & .02 pools?

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09-29-2018 , 12:27 PM

#4717

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,668

Quote:

Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk

Who's still in the Nitrogen .06 & .02 pools?

Not sure if I'm in the 02 but I know I'm still in the 06 and 25

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09-30-2018 , 08:08 AM

#4718

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

Quote:

Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk

Who's still in the Nitrogen .06 & .02 pools?

I have:
1 still alive in the 0.25
2 still alive in the 0.06
2 still alive in the 0.02
3 still alive in the 0.01
7 still alive in each of the two smaller ones

Quote

09-30-2018 , 08:19 AM

#4719

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

In regular pools that start week 1, no rebuy, single picks each week: I have 25 entries left across 7 pools. This week I took:

12 Chargers
3 Jaguars
3 Seahawks
2 Patriots
2 Cowboys
1 Packers
1 Rams
1 Raiders

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09-30-2018 , 09:41 AM

#4720

BraveJayhawk

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Quote:

Originally Posted by PropPlayer

In regular pools that start week 1, no rebuy, single picks each week

I have 2 entries or more in 7/8 pools that I'm still in that fit this criteria. Going with the 3 chalk teams this week across the board.

Allin on Oakland in my rebuy pools

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09-30-2018 , 10:07 AM

#4721

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,668

Quote:

Originally Posted by PropPlayer

I have:
1 still alive in the 0.25
2 still alive in the 0.06

same and then 4 in the smaller ones. out of the freeroll.

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09-30-2018 , 11:02 AM

#4722

EddyB66

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Oakland/Jags for me this week.

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09-30-2018 , 11:08 AM

#4723

BraveJayhawk

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I've been eliminated from this pool, but here's the breakdown. Picks are due Saturday. Double picks in 5 & 10

1 Chargers 37.3% 137
2 Jaguars 24.3% 89
3 Packers 17.4% 64
4 Seahawks 4.6% 17
5 Rams (W) 4.1% 15
6 Patriots 3.3% 12
7 Falcons 2.7% 10
8 Eagles 2.5% 9
9 Raiders 1.4% 5
10 Bears 0.8% 3
11 Cowboys 0.5% 2
12 Saints 0.3% 1
13 Colts 0.3% 1
14 Steelers 0.3% 1
15 Chiefs 0.3% 1