Quote:
Originally Posted by kdog
Suppose the rookies don't start? With McCarron hurt Balt def looks good but what if Bridgewater starts for the Jets? Still like Det instead of NO?
Disclaimer...I have done no future value checking at all.
I think there are times to make exceptions to the rule (for instance future value isn't close to an efficient market and if you're gonna use subjective reasoning then try doing it for that) but for the most part you want to just honor the stated win probability.
Given it is the Lions and not a Drew Brees/Aaron Rodgers team, their ownership % will be 1/2 to 1/3rd of those teams and thus people being unsure about taking them is basically factored into the ownership percentage. The Jets "feeling like a live dog" or whatever you want to call it is priced into the pick.