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Old 08-06-2018, 09:45 PM   #4576
BraveJayhawk
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I’d love to get into a double picks in 5,10 & 15 pool. Someone help me out!


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Old 08-15-2018, 11:34 AM   #4577
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

are there any $100 + (ideally $500+) surviors being run out there??
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Old 08-15-2018, 11:52 AM   #4578
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

hit me up for any big pools. will be on nitrogen but would prefer some bigger, deeper ones.
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Old 08-17-2018, 10:33 AM   #4579
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Baltimore & Detroit are slam dunks in 1. Detroit is far and away the best pick on the board
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Old 08-19-2018, 09:57 AM   #4580
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk View Post
Baltimore & Detroit are slam dunks in 1. Detroit is far and away the best pick on the board
Suppose the rookies don't start? With McCarron hurt Balt def looks good but what if Bridgewater starts for the Jets? Still like Det instead of NO?

Disclaimer...I have done no future value checking at all.
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Old 08-19-2018, 06:41 PM   #4581
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Saints to 2 other great spots early in the season (2 & 5). This is the Lions best game all year (as things stand right now)


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Old 08-20-2018, 12:58 PM   #4582
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by Frotl818 View Post
are there any $100 + (ideally $500+) surviors being run out there??
Cappers Mall has a $500 one. It doesn't use software, picks just get entered in a forum thread each week. 21 people last year (9 already in this year and is still very early).

NitrogenSports has many options including higher than that but is all in bitcoin
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Old 08-22-2018, 02:25 PM   #4583
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

yeah clearly ravens/lions week 1..I'll probably do a 50/50 split on those 2. Maybe 60/40 to Lions.

My pool should be around 900 people, I got 10 entries in it.

Hopefully most take GB/NO. That's what survivorgrid says so far.
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Old 08-22-2018, 03:10 PM   #4584
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Cappers Mall has a $500 one. It doesn't use software, picks just get entered in a forum thread each week. 21 people last year (9 already in this year and is still very early).

NitrogenSports has many options including higher than that but is all in bitcoin
How are the Nitrogen pools?

I feel like they would be sharper than normal since your getting more people well versed in math, probability, game theroy in the crypto world but could be wrong.
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Old 08-22-2018, 03:18 PM   #4585
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by kdog View Post
Suppose the rookies don't start? With McCarron hurt Balt def looks good but what if Bridgewater starts for the Jets? Still like Det instead of NO?

Disclaimer...I have done no future value checking at all.
I think there are times to make exceptions to the rule (for instance future value isn't close to an efficient market and if you're gonna use subjective reasoning then try doing it for that) but for the most part you want to just honor the stated win probability.

Given it is the Lions and not a Drew Brees/Aaron Rodgers team, their ownership % will be 1/2 to 1/3rd of those teams and thus people being unsure about taking them is basically factored into the ownership percentage. The Jets "feeling like a live dog" or whatever you want to call it is priced into the pick.
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Old 08-22-2018, 05:28 PM   #4586
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by Onlydo2days View Post
How are the Nitrogen pools?

I feel like they would be sharper than normal since your getting more people well versed in math, probability, game theroy in the crypto world but could be wrong.
disagree with this. in fact if anything it's crypto rich ppl throwing away money. lots of people forget to make picks.
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Old 08-22-2018, 06:07 PM   #4587
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I've never played them, was just a guess.

Just figured it was more of like a poker/sports betting/understanding of game theory crowd as opposed to your sisters boyfriends pool with 300 people.
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Old 08-24-2018, 11:47 AM   #4588
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

anyone else notice that Zathras site is down? Says they're "too old for this sht"

Used to be one of the biggest and well run survivor pools year in year out. Anyone have any info?
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Old 08-25-2018, 01:31 AM   #4589
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

2 or 3 seasons ago someone joined a bunch of the mid stake nitrogen pools doing something like 32 entries and the first week picked every team (both sides of every game). Obviously that person didn't really think it out well and donated a bunch the the prize pool.
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Old 08-28-2018, 10:03 PM   #4590
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Know of a couple pools if anyone is interested pm me for details.

1. Is $100 entry gets over 6k+ entrants. If your in the north east you may already play in it it's run by someone with intitals SS.

2. Is $500 entry and got over 120 entries last year.



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Old 09-03-2018, 11:37 PM   #4591
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Considering going Lions with all entries week 1. The Pederman starting for BIlls news is gonna push them way up. His 1 start was legendary last year.

Lions currently have no FV and will probably only be like 1/2 the ownership % of Ravens.
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Old 09-04-2018, 11:41 AM   #4592
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I will be going with the Lions as well week 1. Balti has a few back end home games that should be very favorable too
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Old 09-04-2018, 05:09 PM   #4593
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Well I have 8 entries, not sure if I wanna go all Lions.

Maybe 6/2 Lions/Ravens
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Old 09-04-2018, 07:13 PM   #4594
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I envision Stafford making a few ill advised throws that go the other way and Buffalo pulls the upset. I have 10 entries and I'm probably unloading on Philly.


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Old 09-04-2018, 07:30 PM   #4595
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

You're unloading on a team that is -2.5 that has future value?
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Old 09-04-2018, 07:32 PM   #4596
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Love Baltimore this week. Lions are scary and don’t normally trust them but the first 6 weeks they usually play good and get everyone excited then choke. Plus darnold starting his first game On the road Monday night against this new Matt Patricia defense. Seems like a good spot.
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Old 09-05-2018, 02:58 AM   #4597
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Grid has it 2/1 ratio in favor of Ravens right now, and likely climbing

At similar WP%'s, just hard to want to allocate any shares to B'More.


I think you see pools purge faster this year than last year. Browns are better and there just aren't a whole lot of terrible teams in the NFL right now. Doubt QB injuries are as brutal as last year as well.
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Old 09-05-2018, 10:13 AM   #4598
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I'm taking the Saints. One mistake I've made a lot in previous years is taking a team in the bottom 1/2 of the NFL to win in Week 1, when things are less clear and they end up not being as good as people think. Saints are a consensus top team and Cardinals are a consensus bottom team.

Their next best value game for the Saints appears to be next week and I'll be taking the Rams then over the Cardinals. Week 5 they are a presumed TD favorite over Redskins, but there's still some good options that week
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Old 09-05-2018, 12:07 PM   #4599
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Other than being the opposite, is there any difference in strategy for an anti-survivor league where you have to pick losers each week?
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Old 09-05-2018, 03:25 PM   #4600
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

The Saints were 21-27 from 2014-2016 before last year. They lost to Tampa in week 17 despite 3 INT's from Jameis.

Not sure how that is perennially good.
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