NFL Survivor Picks - Page 172 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

Lost 2 is my 5 left. I tried to diversify with pit and car. In hindsight with a smaller pool I didn't need too maybe, NE losing would of about handed me the win

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Quote

09-25-2017 , 05:22 PM

#4278

Bagliani

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 93

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zimmer4141

solid advice!

Quote

09-25-2017 , 11:28 PM

#4279

WaKtickets

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 679

Well now I'm down to 1 entry. Looking for a few LL late starts if anyone has any?

Quote

09-26-2017 , 01:04 PM

#4280

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

1. Slamming Arizona this week.

2. Seattle

I really like the idea of having Seattle in 9. There'll be a lot of people on Houston & NYG that week. Nearly everyone will have both those teams available and they're currently the biggest favorites that week. Seattle will probably be favored by probably the same amount as them, but they'll have been picked by ~75% of people by then.

3. Atlanta / Kansas City

Saving New England, Green Bay & Dallas for later

Quote

09-26-2017 , 01:37 PM

#4281

Gallagher_

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 176

Hard for me to justify going anywhere but Seattle or Arizona this week.

Quote

09-26-2017 , 02:07 PM

#4282

Dizzyqtp

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 7,382

when are people looking to use GB?

Quote

09-26-2017 , 02:20 PM

#4283

Crazy Joe Davola

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 2,165

Saving the Seahawks seems like a bad idea. They're a poor team right now and could be completely awful in six weeks.

Quote

09-26-2017 , 03:20 PM

#4284

sheetsworld

veteran

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 2,811

Psycho mad scientist idea----

For those of us who saved Pitt for week 5, where they are clearly best, and very mediocre options below them:

Get nice and wasted, and go 50% Cle and 50% Jets----The zero FV special, sacrificing 1/2 your entries for the cause, but ensure advancement, and then root for Jacksonville and all those other terrible week 5 options and save Pitt for even later like week 11 when REALLY no one will have them.

So stupid it just might work-----especially when 13-13 ties happen and both advance

Quote

09-26-2017 , 04:02 PM

#4285

JonnyLift

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 164

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onlydo2days

Do you mean Carolina?

Saints would be awful

hey?

Quote

09-26-2017 , 04:21 PM

#4286

Kurn, son of Mogh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 16,232

Quote:

Originally Posted by sheetsworld

especially when 13-13 ties happen and both advance

In the pool I'm in, a tie is a loss.

Quote

09-26-2017 , 05:50 PM

#4287

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,301

Quote:

Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk

Agree on Arizona, no FV, low ownership and good EV.

Seattle will be decently high owned in 9 though. Luck should be back for Indy by then and they won't be any kind of big dogs to Houston. The grid is pricing Indy as if Luck is out for the year.

Another thing I've noticed is the grid underrates LAC because they have no homefield so the oddsmakers ding them at home, it's extrapolating that to road games when it shouldn't be.

Agree on saving NE/GB for later but Dal's FV doesn't seem much better than KC's or ATL's. It actually seems worse.

Quote

09-26-2017 , 05:51 PM

#4288

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,301

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonnyLift

hey?

You took the Saints in a pick a team to win survivor? I mean it's a horrible play regardless of result.

Quote

09-26-2017 , 05:52 PM

#4289

Bagliani

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 93

thoughts on taking the jags this week?

Quote

09-26-2017 , 05:56 PM

#4290

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,301

Think you gotta specify your exact format/situation when asking something like that.

I'd lean no but depends on your format.

Quote

09-26-2017 , 06:07 PM

#4291

nyc999

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 18,661

Thinking of switching off Dallas to Atlanta. Somehow didn't have ATL slated throughout the entire season (on HOU in week 6 and PHI in week 8).

Seems logical to change?

Quote

09-26-2017 , 06:11 PM

#4292

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,301

I feel like this week you either go chalk with Seattle at 87% win rate or you go Zona at low ownership and 74% win rate.

Iif you're take a team in the NE/GB/ATL/Dallas range I think it is Dallas. They have a tough schedule, ATL just has better FV.

Quote

09-26-2017 , 06:12 PM

#4293

sheetsworld

veteran

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 2,811

Quote:

Originally Posted by nyc999

Thinking of switching off Dallas to Atlanta. Somehow didn't have ATL slated throughout the entire season (on HOU in week 6 and PHI in week 8).

Seems logical to change?

So funny you say that----I was doing some mapping a week ago and I ended up not using Atlanta for the whole season also. Crazy to think that's possible.

Quote

09-26-2017 , 06:16 PM

#4294

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,301

I think this is when you add football analysis with a situation like ATL. Nothing on mapping sticks out with them but after 3 weeks they have as much of a claim to being the best team in the NFL as anyone and their QB never misses games. There is probably going to be a spot in the next 3 months you wanna use them.

Quote

09-26-2017 , 06:43 PM

#4295

qazikm2000

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 5,677

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onlydo2days

I tend to agree with this. There are like 4-5 future games where ATL would be in your top 3 pick choices and could comfortable be swapped in if your currently mapped pick runs into injuries/ bad play etc. You could really only see Dallas being in a top 3 future pick week in week 7 or 12 (maybe 13 if Washington stops playing well), and with the uncertainty of Zeke missing games in the future, maybe this would be a decent week to burn Dallas as their future value could drop.

Quote

09-26-2017 , 06:45 PM

#4296

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,301

Didn't even think of the Zeke angle, yeah. That's true too.

He doesn't affect equity huge but .5pts per week is a decent dent to FV.

Quote

09-26-2017 , 06:46 PM

#4297

Gallagher_

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 176

I don't really see any spots in the future where Seattle looks super compelling. Week 12 is solid, but teams like Cin and Phi look about as valuable and there aren't a lot of other spots I'm itching to use either of those teams.

Quote

09-26-2017 , 06:55 PM

#4298

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,301

Good chance they aren't double digit favs again this year.

Also Wilson has to have like 2-3x the injury equity of other top QB's given how poor their OL is and how much he runs around.

Week 9 is very thin though. I'd probably rather use GB than them that week but tough to say. SG seems to have GB rated lower every week the rest of the year based on them going from 10.5 to 7 vs Chi this week. Which is likely wrong.

Quote

09-26-2017 , 08:37 PM

#4299

Bagliani

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 93

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onlydo2days

Think you gotta specify your exact format/situation when asking something like that.

I'd lean no but depends on your format.

my bad will specify.

1100 entries to start with re entries for 1.5 x entry fee allowed until week 6. Double picks start week 10 if more then 200 people left and will continue if half the pool isn't eliminated. If over 100 people get knocked out it will go back to 1 pick for week 11. I have taken Rams, Raiders, Cowboys so far and do really like Jags this week. I am trying to save Lions and Bucs for week 10. Any thoughts? Thanks

Quote

09-26-2017 , 11:51 PM

#4300

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,301

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bagliani

I just started diving into this stuff from a game theory perspective. Seems like you wanna make some gambles before week 6 since you can re-buy in if they lose. But maybe others can answer.

I have a general question for others about SG. Where do they get the future lines? It seems like the future lines are just based on the present lines/power rankings for this week and nothing more.

I know the Westgate offers advanced lines on every game at the beginning of the year (not sure if they do it throughout the season) but the SG lines don't appear to be from that.

Quote

Page 172 of 274

First

72 122 152 162 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 182 192 222 272

Last

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 172 of 274

First

72 122 152 162 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 182 192 222 272

Last