NFL Survivor Picks - Page 7 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

Question for the strategists around here. I'm in two pools, one is down to 11 and the other 26, so they aren't massive, and they are one-strike-and-you're-out.

With that said, I've made it this far taking the same team in both pools. At some point should I diversify my picks? If so, should I have been doing that from the start?

Is winning both pools twice as good as winning one? Is there money/pride for places other than first? If so, do you care what place you get if you don't win?

Picking the best team for both leagues has the highest EV, but if your objective is to make sure you win at least one league, or get a certain place, it might be better to diversify.

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11-01-2009 , 04:24 PM

#153

accobra_kid

$tat$ King

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 15,308

The distribution of picks in my league this week was about:

SD 50%
CHI 25%
ARZ 8%
IND 7%
DAL 6%
NO 3%

So far, the Bears and Cowboys look to go through quite easily. IND is in a dogfight, while the Cards, Chargers (my pick this week) and Saints have yet to kick off. Go 49ers!

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11-01-2009 , 07:39 PM

#154

KLJ

20k hands/day

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 5,701

NO vs. CAR or ATL vs. WAS? I don't have GB @ TB, and picking bad teams over worse teams scares me (SEA vs. DET and SF vs. TEN). I guess IND vs. HOU maybe, but I don't like it to be honest.

I kind of want to save ATL for week 12 vs. TB.

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11-01-2009 , 08:00 PM

#155

True North

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 23,703

Glad to have SD out of the way, they are absolutely not to be trusted.

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11-01-2009 , 09:35 PM

#156

canabiz

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 228

Moving on here as well folks. Arizona and Detroit cleaned up a few stragglers but not much. A Falcons win tomorrow night is certainly welcoming. Every little bit helps at this stage of the game.

For Week 9, I am looking at Altanta vs. Washington (more so if the Falcons loses tomorrow night) and Seattle vs. Detroit (especially if Calvin Johnson doesn't play)

2 more candidates for Week 9 are Jacksonville (Larry Johnson is suspended?) and San Fran. Certainly need to look more into these games.

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11-02-2009 , 01:07 AM

#157

slickpoppa

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 7,575

Quote:

Originally Posted by True North

Glad to have SD out of the way, they are absolutely not to be trusted.

I was a little skeptical of the the huge spread and ML on San Diego but I picked em anyway.

Next week will be tough for those who have already picked GB.

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11-02-2009 , 09:50 AM

#158

accobra_kid

$tat$ King

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 15,308

Quote:

Originally Posted by slickpoppa

Next week will be tough for those who have already picked GB.

I disagree. Green Bay @ Tampa Bay is a solid choice, but there are a ton of great home options to choose from this week.

SF, IND, SEA, ATL, JAX, and even CHI (in some order) are good bets to win on home turf. Take your pick.

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11-02-2009 , 01:01 PM

#159

True North

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 23,703

Not to mention NO, for everyone who didn't take them in week 1.

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11-03-2009 , 07:31 AM

#160

canabiz

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 228

Quote:

Originally Posted by accobra_kid

Agreed.

Moneyline-wise, Pinny thinks Seattle and New England have better chances of winning than Green Bay, with quite a few games yet to have a line.

I don't know if a lot of folks still have New England though. I hope Calvin Johnson is not playing. This is also the Seahawks' best chance to win another game, save for when they host Tampa further down the road.

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11-03-2009 , 09:08 AM

#161

True North

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 23,703

Top lines right now:

Carolina @ New Orleans -14 (up to -15 at Planet Hollywood)
Miami @ New England -10.5
Washington @ Atlanta -10
Detroit @ Seattle -10
Green Bay -9.5 @ Tampa Bay

Honestly, that Seattle game looks really tempting. I've already used up GB and NE, and NO and Atl both have games that will be just as good down the road (both are still to host Tampa Bay).

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11-03-2009 , 10:02 AM

#162

slickpoppa

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 7,575

Quote:

Originally Posted by canabiz

NO and NE are good picks if you still have them, but I think most people have used one or both of those by now. I'm not touching Seattle. As bad as Detroit is, picking a team that has 2 rushing TDs all season just doesn't sit well with me.

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11-03-2009 , 01:49 PM

#163

KLJ

20k hands/day

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 5,701

If I had more people in my pool I would probably gamble with Seattle, but with only 4 left I'm going with New Orleans.

9: NO v CAR
10: MIN v DET
11: PIT @ KC
12: ATL v TB
13: DEN @ KC
14: BAL v DET

should all be huge favs and my pool will likely be done by then.

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11-05-2009 , 02:51 PM

#164

True North

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 23,703

The more I think about it, the more I think Seattle is a total stay-away. With no Tatupu and with Megatron probable for Sunday's game, I think it's just too much of a gamble.

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11-05-2009 , 03:13 PM

#165

mulebennett

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 1,886

Megatron is a game time decision.

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11-05-2009 , 04:14 PM

#166

Gandolfandiari

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 11,422

Lions will get trucked @ Seattle. The Seahawks seem to play decent at home and the LOLions are beyond bad on the road. I really wanna save ATL for week 11 at home against TB. Gonna roll the dice with Seattle this week.

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11-05-2009 , 05:31 PM

#167

27offsuit

actions have consequences!

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 38,516

Great work so far. Hey, just thought of a great use for tables:

_	Survivor 1	Survivor 2
1	NO	NE
2	Minn	Minn
3	PHI	BLT
4	Indy	HST
5	NYG	PHI
6	GB	PIT
7	NE	Indy
8	CHI	SD
9

Filling 2 with NO. Was going ATL on 1, but may consider switch to Sea with that Week 11 tip.

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11-05-2009 , 06:09 PM

#168

27offsuit

actions have consequences!

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 38,516

Nah. Just sticking with NO Atl

dontgettrickydontgettrickydontgettricky...

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11-05-2009 , 10:12 PM

#169

canabiz

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 228

Ranked in order of biggest moneyline this week. Take your picks

New Orleans -700

New England -580

Seattle -545

Atlanta -500

Green Bay -480

Indianapolis -390

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11-05-2009 , 10:44 PM

#170

070806

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 3

what are a few good picks this week?

edit:sry wrong forum

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11-07-2009 , 02:41 AM

#171

▬▬▬▬▬▬

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 5,007

I'm really liking seattle this week and taking them with all 3 of my picks (2 in a big money pool, 1 in a normal pool)

*there's still lots of people left in these pools

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11-08-2009 , 08:29 PM

#172

canabiz

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 228

Goddamn Lions made me sweat out a bit early on.

Packers loss cleaned up a few stragglers.

On to Week 10 where I will most likely be on Nawleans. May give Miami a second look, depending on the line.

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11-08-2009 , 08:36 PM

#173

Gandolfandiari

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 11,422

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gandolfandiari

yeah this was definately a sweat there at the end. Had Seattle in all 3 of my leagues. Luckily Stafford came through with his 5th pick of the game. LOLions

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11-09-2009 , 01:08 AM

#174

canabiz

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 228

Just realized I still have Minny in a couple of Pools. I will possibly split my picks between Minny and Nawleans and see how it goes.

On paper, Tampa should be no match for Miami but I don't know much about this kid Josh Freeman.

All of the Pools I am in now have less than 1/4 of the participants. Next couple of weeks can really whittle things down.

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11-09-2009 , 02:14 AM

#175

Sharkzilla1

adept

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 834

Sighhh F GB

I hate the packers to begin with and now I just get some more incentive to hate on them. I had ATL but then on Friday I decided to move on to GB instead.

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