Quote:
Originally Posted by splashpot
I use moneyline as the primary factor. I need a reason to overrule the moneyline if I'm not picking the team with the biggest moneyline. Favorable future schedule and separation are acceptable reasons. Being a road team is not an acceptable reason and has zero influence in my decision.
splash (or anyone else): Speaking of moneyline, is it simply the case that the bigger the moneyline is for a favorite, the more chances that team has to win the game (from the book's perspective).
Take your example of Chicago and Houston. I use Pinny which is widely regarded as one of the sharpest book in the biz. Right now, both favorites at home have a spread of -9.5 over the visiting teams but the moneyline on Chicago is -450 while that for Houston is -415.
Without getting in all the math, is it safe to say Pinny *thinks* Chicago has a better chance of winning the game than Houston? or it's not as cut-and-dried as it looks?
Let's take this example 1 step further: Come Sunday morning, you wake up and see that Chicago moneyline has dipped to -410 while Houston remains steady at -415. Is it a cause for concern for you and would you switch your pick to Houston?