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Old 04-22-2020, 10:43 AM   #1
CousinGreg
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NFL draft 2020

O1.5 rbs in 1R +600

Probably none until mid20s but if swift goes before kc at 32, they could go rb w last pick

Anyone got strong plays?
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Old 04-22-2020, 05:00 PM   #2
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Re: NFL draft 2020

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Originally Posted by CousinGreg View Post
O1.5 rbs in 1R +600

Probably none until mid20s but if swift goes before kc at 32, they could go rb w last pick

Anyone got strong plays?
Have Under 1.5 RBs -600 1R as really strong. Meet at Matchbook?
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Old 04-22-2020, 05:13 PM   #3
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Re: NFL draft 2020

Sorry already played
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Old 04-22-2020, 05:56 PM   #4
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Re: NFL draft 2020

Good luck. 0 seems like more likely than 2 but who ****ing knows this year. I've already bet way too much based on the same mocks and group think as everyone else. Will post thoughts after I finish betting tomorrow AM.
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Old 04-22-2020, 06:08 PM   #5
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Re: NFL draft 2020

I'm thinking this year is horrible for props because of the social distancing thing. No leaks from scouts or random people.

I legit can't think of one RB that would go in the first round.

One I like is Cowboys draft an offensive player first. Lot of news that they're interested in center Cesar Ruiz from Michigan and they're looking to get rid of Travis Frederick. I got the line at +350 earlier today, but I think it should be good at any + odds.

Also I think there might be value in Arizona drafts D first at +225 if Okudah falls to 8th. Could be a better bet if the line stays up when the draft is live.

Smaller plus odds value:
Titans OFF +110
SEA OFF +130
Saints OFF +125
Packers DEF +165

Last edited by DefNotRsigley; 04-22-2020 at 06:13 PM.
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Old 04-22-2020, 06:19 PM   #6
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Re: NFL draft 2020

I think there’s gonna be a lot of chaos this year due to the social distancing and electronic way this is done, and has been done lately
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Old 04-22-2020, 06:34 PM   #7
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Re: NFL draft 2020

Even better Travis Frederick retired, so Dallas needs a center. In my experience the best time is to bet the draft live. Once some picks are made a lot of them become obvious. or more news leaks and the books are slow to respond
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Old 04-23-2020, 10:42 AM   #8
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Re: NFL draft 2020

A.Thomas first offensive lineman drafted +1095

if the dolphins trade up to 3 we good
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Old 04-23-2020, 11:23 AM   #9
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Re: NFL draft 2020

I like that. He’s most nfl ready
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Old 04-23-2020, 12:29 PM   #10
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Re: NFL draft 2020

Dolphins are either geniuses putting out all theses smoke screens so they can take Tua without moving up or about to sink to new depths. Since it's the Dolphins you prob in good Sigs.
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Old 04-23-2020, 12:42 PM   #11
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Re: NFL draft 2020

Under 4.5 QBs is the nuts even at as high as -1000 imo. There just aren't enough good QBs and QB needy teams this year. Burrow/TUA/Herbert are locks sure, but Love isn't, and who would the 5th guy even be and who is taking him?
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Old 04-23-2020, 12:43 PM   #12
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Re: NFL draft 2020

Also considering someone gonna get Trevor Lawrence next year
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Old 04-23-2020, 01:09 PM   #13
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Re: NFL draft 2020

Some NYG beat writers are now saying the Giants are thinking about taking Thomas over Wirfs. Thomas hype is too much. Can't wait to lose the bet and then he goes in the 4th round.
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Old 04-23-2020, 01:35 PM   #14
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Re: NFL draft 2020

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Originally Posted by Iowa! View Post
Under 4.5 QBs is the nuts even at as high as -1000 imo. There just aren't enough good QBs and QB needy teams this year. Burrow/TUA/Herbert are locks sure, but Love isn't, and who would the 5th guy even be and who is taking him?
It is quite a QB-needy league. And Love is about 99% lock for the 1st round. I personally am not a fan, but NFL teams saw what happened last year when they let a supremely gifted arm talent with decent athleticism to boot and flashes on tape fall to the 2nd round (Drew Lock, 4-1 as a starter with only loss to Kansas City in a blizzard).

Jalen Hurts and Jacob Eason have a slim chance to go R1 as well. The late 1st is filled with teams who could potentially go that way (assuming all the other 4 are gone by 19 at the latest):
- Jaguars (only have Minshew but they seem to be tanking for Lawrence in 2021
- Vikings (pair of 1st, maybe one is a succession plan to Cousins, albeit doubtful but not impossible)
- New England (obvious reasons)
- New Orleans (Brees last season)
- Green Bay (Packers have looked heavily into Hurts from all reports. A-Rod isn't exactly young)
- San Francisco (Jimmy G showed warts last year, they could contemplate)

And then you have a few teams early 2nd who could try and trade up to get that 5th-year option to delay paying a QB a year early like the Cowboys with Dak:
- Colts
- Steelers
- Chargers (if they go OT at 6, could move up for Hurts who I've heard they love)
- Bears (two 2nd rounders. Another slim chance, but it's not like Foles & Trubisky are good)

That's 10 teams I could easily see nabbing that 5th Round 1 QB if they absolutely loved somebody and wanted that 5th year option.

-1000 on U4.5 is just awful value when there is about 30% of teams I could see making that move to take 5th one.
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Old 04-23-2020, 01:55 PM   #15
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Re: NFL draft 2020

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It is quite a QB-needy league. And Love is about 99% lock for the 1st round. I personally am not a fan, but NFL teams saw what happened last year when they let a supremely gifted arm talent with decent athleticism to boot and flashes on tape fall to the 2nd round (Drew Lock, 4-1 as a starter with only loss to Kansas City in a blizzard).
For the sims I run I pull 25 of the top performing mocks of the last 5 years. Love is currently only going in the 1st in about 2/3 of them. That's light. I put it at 80-85%. How'd you come up with 99%?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckMe View Post

Jalen Hurts and Jacob Eason have a slim chance to go R1 as well. The late 1st is filled with teams who could potentially go that way (assuming all the other 4 are gone by 19 at the latest):
- Jaguars (only have Minshew but they seem to be tanking for Lawrence in 2021
- Vikings (pair of 1st, maybe one is a succession plan to Cousins, albeit doubtful but not impossible)
- New England (obvious reasons)
- New Orleans (Brees last season)
- Green Bay (Packers have looked heavily into Hurts from all reports. A-Rod isn't exactly young)
- San Francisco (Jimmy G showed warts last year, they could contemplate)

And then you have a few teams early 2nd who could try and trade up to get that 5th-year option to delay paying a QB a year early like the Cowboys with Dak:
- Colts
- Steelers
- Chargers (if they go OT at 6, could move up for Hurts who I've heard they love)
- Bears (two 2nd rounders. Another slim chance, but it's not like Foles & Trubisky are good)

That's 10 teams I could easily see nabbing that 5th Round 1 QB if they absolutely loved somebody and wanted that 5th year option.

-1000 on U4.5 is just awful value when there is about 30% of teams I could see making that move to take 5th one.
Lot of rhetoric but what % are you putting on "slim" for the 5th QB? I say it's about 5%.
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Old 04-23-2020, 02:05 PM   #16
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Re: NFL draft 2020

I dunno much about drafts, just degen'ing it up but I think u4.5 is as lock city as o5.5 OL drafted (and o6.5). If Love goes in the 1st round he would go to one of those teams.

If you think Love is R1 lock then just bet o4 QBs at +200. It will be a free roll.
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Old 04-23-2020, 02:28 PM   #17
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Re: NFL draft 2020

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Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
I dunno much about drafts, just degen'ing it up but I think u4.5 is as lock city as o5.5 OL drafted (and o6.5). If Love goes in the 1st round he would go to one of those teams.

If you think Love is R1 lock then just bet o4 QBs at +200. It will be a free roll.
I already did O4 QBs before because of that. Also had taken O2 Oklahoma players for the same reason because at least when props first came out CeeDee & Kenneth both seemed like locks. Murray isn't exactly 100% anymore but we'll see.

I would say about 15% chance to see a 5th QB, likely Hurts if it happens, or 85% chance that we see U4.5. -1000 is 90+% implied odds. To each their own, but 5% difference and at that price, I can't touch.
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Old 04-23-2020, 02:32 PM   #18
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Re: NFL draft 2020

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Originally Posted by Iowa! View Post
For the sims I run I pull 25 of the top performing mocks of the last 5 years. Love is currently only going in the 1st in about 2/3 of them. That's light. I put it at 80-85%. How'd you come up with 99%?
I follow the Draft quite intently for some time. Love is the type of QB some GM's will break there back over because they can "mold them."

I personally don't like Love. That's the error of using other people's mocks in an attempt to extract data to bet on; there is an extremely small amount of them putting personal bias' completely aside and just trying to do team fits/needs based on what those teams actually show a history of.

Example; I saw some dude just yesterday putting Tua to the Redskins at #2 in his mock because HE believes it would be the best pick. And that's despite reports the Redskins are completely locked in on Chase Young barring a massive offer.

Mocks should be about trying to correctly match players to teams, not personal opinions on what they should do.
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Old 04-23-2020, 02:43 PM   #19
DefNotRsigley
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Re: NFL draft 2020

I've only been following the guys from here

https://www.mockdraftdatabase.com/nfl-mock-drafts

No idea if they're good but they did register a domain which seems good. In the past I only really did Live Draft betting since following the draft has to be almost as lame as doing legacy fantasy football. but this is the world we live in now

Last edited by DefNotRsigley; 04-23-2020 at 02:54 PM.
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:00 PM   #20
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Re: NFL draft 2020

Reasonable minds certainly can differ on a lot of these. What do we think of this TE R1 YES steam? I keep betting Under .5 and it keeps getting hit back. Is anyone friends with Cole Kmet?
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:30 PM   #21
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Re: NFL draft 2020

Quote:
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Reasonable minds certainly can differ on a lot of these. What do we think of this TE R1 YES steam? I keep betting Under .5 and it keeps getting hit back. Is anyone friends with Cole Kmet?
Kmet had a solid year, had a solid Combine, dude is solid all-around. Does that get him into the 1st? Doubtful, but I did take it when it was +725 because I thought it was worth the risk.

He likely goes early-mid 2nd. In Bob McGinn's annual article where they quote anonymous scouts and GM's, they basically all said he was a solid #2. Another scout said when talking about Claypool that their QB sucked, so maybe Kmet gets some credit for playing with what they perceive is a bad QB.

Hayden Hurst went 1st round and he was like 27 years old and not even that athletic. I still doubt Kmet goes 1st, but I wouldn't want to take the juiced up odds that he doesn't.
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Old 04-23-2020, 03:32 PM   #22
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Re: NFL draft 2020

i can only bet this once and it's still there. could bomb if burrow/young aren't 1/2 but seems unlikely

not 1st burrow / 2nd young / 3rd okudah -140
3rd draft pick okudah +200

lock up that $100/9% profit and get yourself a nice dinner
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Old 04-23-2020, 04:54 PM   #23
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Re: NFL draft 2020

What do you draft day boiler room sharps think about this P. Queen draft position?

I hit o25.5 at +105 a couple weeks ago and thought it was good then. Since then it's dropped to o24.5 +200 but I don't see anything that his draft position has improved

Am I missing something or should I just keep betting over and then hope for a bail out? Is this just hoping that the Patriots take him 23rd? or that the Pats trade their picks to the Ravens who take him 23rd?
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Old 04-23-2020, 05:12 PM   #24
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Re: NFL draft 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
What do you draft day boiler room sharps think about this P. Queen draft position?

I hit o25.5 at +105 a couple weeks ago and thought it was good then. Since then it's dropped to o24.5 +200 but I don't see anything that his draft position has improved

Am I missing something or should I just keep betting over and then hope for a bail out? Is this just hoping that the Patriots take him 23rd? or that the Pats trade their picks to the Ravens who take him 23rd?
A few rumors that the Broncos will take him at 15 if Lamb isn't there, no idea what to make of that but yea he got bombed under today, same him o/u 19.5 -120 at one skin
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Old 04-23-2020, 05:20 PM   #25
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Re: NFL draft 2020

I've been betting Queen overs too. I'll keep going and we'll see if the Crowdsource Syndicate has more $ than the Illuminati.
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