Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa!
Under 4.5 QBs is the nuts even at as high as -1000 imo. There just aren't enough good QBs and QB needy teams this year. Burrow/TUA/Herbert are locks sure, but Love isn't, and who would the 5th guy even be and who is taking him?
It is quite a QB-needy league. And Love is about 99% lock for the 1st round. I personally am not a fan, but NFL teams saw what happened last year when they let a supremely gifted arm talent with decent athleticism to boot and flashes on tape fall to the 2nd round (Drew Lock, 4-1 as a starter with only loss to Kansas City in a blizzard).
Jalen Hurts and Jacob Eason have a slim chance to go R1 as well. The late 1st is filled with teams who could potentially go that way (assuming all the other 4 are gone by 19 at the latest):
- Jaguars (only have Minshew but they seem to be tanking for Lawrence in 2021
- Vikings (pair of 1st, maybe one is a succession plan to Cousins, albeit doubtful but not impossible)
- New England (obvious reasons)
- New Orleans (Brees last season)
- Green Bay (Packers have looked heavily into Hurts from all reports. A-Rod isn't exactly young)
- San Francisco (Jimmy G showed warts last year, they could contemplate)
And then you have a few teams early 2nd who could try and trade up to get that 5th-year option to delay paying a QB a year early like the Cowboys with Dak:
- Colts
- Steelers
- Chargers (if they go OT at 6, could move up for Hurts who I've heard they love)
- Bears (two 2nd rounders. Another slim chance, but it's not like Foles & Trubisky are good)
That's 10 teams I could easily see nabbing that 5th Round 1 QB if they absolutely loved somebody and wanted that 5th year option.
-1000 on U4.5 is just awful value when there is about 30% of teams I could see making that move to take 5th one.