Yea man ive always made a decent living player poker but one of my biggest leaks was sports betting but since 2018 ive been in the black every year sportsbetting so its been a world of difference for my bankroll. Biggest thing I learned is that im not good enough to pick winner PREGAME when it comes to game lines the only pregame bets im profitable at are player props however I learned that im also a winner in game live betting spreads. I have a few rules I try to follow. 1. Dont bet pregame lines unless its with a local who has his line off compared to what online shops are offering. 2. Dont bet totals I cannot beat them dunno how some do. 3. Dont play too many parlays as they are mostly sucker bets the only ones I will play are SGP's.

ADD to MNF bets

Peoples Jones over 42.5 rec yards

NBA

Jrue Holiday under 2.5 3's made
Buddy Hield under 26.5 PRA
Deaaron Fox over 5.5 assists (this pick wasnt mine but a friend of mine whos advice I really respect)
john collins over 13.5 points

Ya I always try to live bet games that I actually have on the screen myself when I have it on TV. I bet both the moneylines and over unders. I can't say for sure whether I am a winner long term at it though. I can say that with sports betting overall the past 3 years that I am tracking I am a small winner, but it has been so much up and down. Where as with poker, I am a winning player every year; but I view those winnings much differently since they feel more like work.

Completely agree with you on parlays, but they are more fun. I have heard that online books want bettors to parlay because they don't cash so much of the time. And that is the reason they always offer parlay bonuses. But when I do parlay, I am usually doing it I combinations of 2 or 3 so they have a higher chance of hitting.

For MNF, the DPJ line looks good, I'll probably bet that. What do you think of lines for Boyd or Higgins? I saw Hursts line is in the 30s or 40s this week which was a few yards higher than 26.5 which I've seen for him in the past.

As far as live betting, I'll try to focus in on the game more tonight and see if I can time a good over/under on ML bet. I did manage to time a live betting over/under on the DEN vs JAX game. Might have been after the second TD, the line went to 43.5 and I bet the under, and that ended up cashing. Time went by and there wasn't much scoring and the line went to 36.5 and I bet under on that again, but a smaller amount. That bet lost though.

The problem I have with Boyd/Higgins is the same problem the sportsbooks have is how much to adjust there line for the main receiver being out. I didnt see much value in either of them for tonight id like to get one more week of watching them play and seeing there stats without Chase.

MNF ADD

Amari cooper over 54.5 rec yards

NBA ADD

Mike Conely over 14.5 pts rebounds (this and john collins my fav 2)
Reggie Jackson under 5.5 assists

MNF ADD

Mixon to score a TD

MNF in game live bet

Bengals -3.5

Great call on DPJ so far. Higgins also has no yards so far after 1 quarter, so great fade there.

I live bet under at 40.5 so that is looking good as it is 34.5 right now.

Yea bengals bet not looking good however i did get Burrow over 40 1/2 pass attempts so as long as there down he probably keeps throwing as long as he doesnt get hurt.

At the half now, CLE up 11-0, but I'll see how the game plays out a bit more before betting either side. Line is at 33.5 for over/under and I'll wait to see if I make another bet there.

didnt get home in time to post my nba picks for ya sorry hit 5 outta 6 of my bets lost on devontez walker over 66.5 yards in college football prop there leading receiver and hes got like 1 catch thru 4 quarters lol. Not sure if you are interested in me clogging up this thread with nba picks?

Hey man, lets keep this thread more on topic with NFL picks. I'm a casual NBA bettor, but if I do get more into it, we can always start a separate thread with just those picks. I'm a pretty casual NCAA football bettor as well. I'm definitely a regular NFL bettor, and bet every week and every primetime game that I am watching.

As far as TNF, I haven't bet anything too hardcore. Just dabbled in a lot of small bets. PHI moneyline. PHI -3.5 at half. Biggest bet was Hurts under 0.5 INTs. HOU under 26.5 points.

Just curious man, do you play online poker at Pokerstars at all? There is a monthly bonus to clear there, and I noticed that one way to get bonus points, is using their sports book and it rewards you more for parlays. This weekend, I am going to do some two ticket parlays with some picks that are high likely to win, with out much consideration for the return. I bet some NCAAF, with Michigan, USC and Fresno State to win. I'm a Michigan fan, but don't know too much about those other two teams. They were just home favorites by 20+ points. Hopefully this is a safe way to clear the bonus points, but I'll mainly do that by playing poker. These bets are just an extra way to clear them faster. It's my first month trying this, so hopefully there are no major upsets to mess me up. I saw Michigan plays some weaker teams a few times this month so I will end up betting them with some other safe bets.

TNF:
Hurts under 0.5 INTs
Betting mainly under the totals for the half and game and buying points on it just incase. Both teams should run alot to burn clock.

Some recent futures bets:
-Covered both Henry and Chubb to lead in reg season rushing. Both paid 3.75 so I should come out ahead as it should be one of them to win.
-Covered Pickett and Stafford to lead league in INTs. Smallest odds was Pickett at 5.50. PIT should be throwing alot and Pickett won't get pulled from games.
-Covered Gardner and Woolen to win defensive rookie of the year. Woolen just won rookie of the month for October.
-Small dabble on Geno to win comeback player of the year at 3.00. He just won NFC offensive player of the month and SEA is leading their division. Saquon is in NY, so I'm sure he gets alot of media coverage.
-Bet a little more on KWIII to win OROY. He just won NFC rookie of the month for October. Olave has the #1 WR role in NO, with Thomas out for the season, so I'll keep an eye on how he does there.

Unrelated to football, I'm making my largest single bet in years, possibly ever, on a UFC fight this month. Weili Zhang to win. Parlayed it with alot of NFL too.

I'll review player props tomorrow night, for the Sunday games. Good luck in Week 9!

Just did some week 9 player props. Looks like alot are out, but some aren't. Not super crazy confident about any of these, but this is what I've bet so far:
-A Jones, over 64.5 rush
-Etienne over 77.5 rush
-Waddle over 68.5 rec
-Cook over 13.5 rec
-Walker over 71.5 rush

Heres my CFB player props for tomorrow..

Anthony Richardson FLA over 38.5 rush yards (prob my fav play of the day also look into his alt yards i think over 70 was like +400)
Josh Downs UNC over 79.5 rec yards
Mitchell Tinsley penn state over 48.5 rec yards
Dorian Thompson ucla over 38.5 rush yards
Trenton Bourquet arizona state under 260.5 passing yards (second fav pick)
jayden ott cal over 59.5 rush yards
Beaux Collins clemson over 31.5 rec yards
Brock Bowers georgia over 58.5 rec yards (3rd fav)
Chase Brown illinois over 135.5 rush yards


2 parlays

Anthony Richardson over 70 ALT Yards
Devon Achane over 125 alt yards
Josh Downs over 100 alt yards

45-1 odds

2nd parlay...

Anthony Richardson over 70 alt yards
Devon achane over 125 alt yards
Marvin Mims over 110 alt yards
Connor Bazleak over 250 alt yards

230-1 odds

CFB ADD:

Caleb Williams over 2.5 td passes
Caleb Williams over 305.5 pass yards

Good day on NCAAF Props hope you guys tailed with me.. Heres my NFL so far..

NFL 1PM games

Tyreek hill over 87.5 rec yards
Parris Cambell over 28.5 rec yards
justin jefferson over 87.5 rec yards (love this one)
Josh Jacobs under 18.5 carries if you can get this at + money take it thats why i did
Kyle pitts over rec 40.5 yards
robert tonyan over 31.5 rec yards
Diggs over 80.5 rec yards
Alec Pierce over 31.5 rec yards

Killing it today LOL

Hey Sirbustalotz, just watching the CAL vs USC game right now and I see Caleb Williams smashing and hitting your props! Good stuff man!

You've been hot so I did some bets to tail your NFL picks. Also, did some reading on Rotowire, and I'll probably bet unders on BUF vs NYJ, IND vs NE and LAR vs TB. I'll buy points on those totals as well just incase.

thanks man wouldnt suggest blindly tailing anyone and to do your own research but hope we both kill it today. Ill be back to post my 4pm picks later.

4pm

Zach ertz over 38.5 rec yards
Allen Robinson over 37.5 rec yards
Donald to record a sack +100 odds

SNF bets

Mahomes over 280.5 yards
Bud Dupree to have a sack got 3-1 odds on bovada
Valded Scanting over 38.5 rec yards
Helaire over 26.5 rush yards
Mahomes over 24.5 completions

Should add fanduel has a good boost tonight i like Mahomes over 300 yards passing and KC to win both halves for +400.