Chiefs in game - 1 1/2 -140 line.

Just recapping my NFL betting this Sunday, I was 3-2 on those player props I posted a few days ago. I did hit 3/3 on the unders that I played. Also with Ken Walker's big game, 2 TDs, 100 yards and a win, all really helps to solidify his offensive rookie of the year campaign as of now. He is a top 5 RB and on a division leading team. The best odds I have on that bet are 3.25. They were down to 2.60 prior to today's games.

Going forward, I'm going to try to pick a few under plays every week and bet more on those. With the three I picked this week, I had my eyes on them initially, and they also matched with what I read on Rotowire. With player props, I'll bet smaller amounts until I'm able to win more consistently. I've also written down standard betting amounts for each type of bet that I'll be placing going forward, just to be more consistent and in control with my bets, and less impulsive.

MNF props

Melvon Duvernay over 39.5 rec yards
Geno stone over 4.5 tackles
Alvin Kalmara over 37.5 rec yards

Bad night tonight for me 0-3 shouldnt have went against my analytics and went with someone else i trusted to cap this game... But ill own it.. If it wasnt for my nba props had have had a really bad day.

Some player props came out last night. Did a quick look and here are some I am on to varying degrees:
Brady, Tua, Mahomes under 0.5 INT
Waddle over 68.5 rec
DPJ over 43.5 rec
Mooney over 41.5 rec

For games, I see SEA as 3 point underdogs to TB. It looks like the public is big on Brady and the Bucs turning things around after their win last week, but the Hawks are on a roll here at a neutral site. Not sure if there is something I'm really missing here, but I'm going with Seattle.

Josh Palmer over 54.5 rec yards looks very attainable, given Williams and Allen out and LAC being 7 point underdogs.

When I was red hot and calling myself "Mr. November" last month, it dawned on me that could be a problem when the calendar turns to December. 1-11 so far this month, including 0-for on Dr. Pepper championship weekend, which I usually own. Then today the one play I've been congratulating myself on all day, Jets, is nowhere to be found on my bets list, which means I didn't finalize the bet with the final click. A misclick. Leaving me 0-5 today. Funny it seems every misclick ever that didn't get on would have been a winner. Tennessee and Seattle really can't even win outright in those spots??

49ers versus Bengals 3.0 in Super ... different winner than the first two.

Tracked bets pulled from my excel spreadsheet in order of unit size and confidence.


Tom Brady Pass Attempts Over 40.5 Pass Attempts -125
DeShaun Watson Total Completions Over 17.5 -130
Dak Prescott Passing Yards Over 254.5 Passing Yards -115
Justin Herbert Pass Completions Over 27.5 100
Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards Over 69.5 -105
David Njoku Receiving Yards Over 39.5 -115
AJ Brown Receiving Yards Over 70.5 -115
Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Over 52.5 -115
Keenan Allen Receptions Over 4.5 110

This week we're getting some really good numbers and odds if you're willing to stomach betting on games with bad weather.

-115 Justin Fields Over 133.5 Passing Yards (likely big edge up until 150)
+100 Najee Harris Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (this had to be a mistake)
+100 DK Metcalf Over 75.5 Receiving Yards
+105 DeVante Adams Over 68.5 Receiving Yards
-115 Nick Chubb Over 74.5 Rushing Yards

These are my favorite plays of the week so far.

I missed on my big bets last week, but somehow was only down 0.5 units. I feel pretty good about my bets this week; many are low numbers with upside. Happy new years!

-115 Evan Engram Over 48.5 Receiving Yards
-115 Nick Chubb Rushing & Receiving Over 79.5
-115 Chubba Hubbard Rushing Yards Over 32.5
-120 JuJu Smith-Schuster Receptions Under 5.5

And now for the sort-of degen parlays:

Parlay: -142
-275 Patrick Mahomes 2 Pass TDs and Chiefs win
-400 Miami Dolphins & New England Patriots both teams score 10+ points

Parlay: +250
-115 Teddy Bridgewater Passing Yards Over 224.5
-115 Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Over 74.5

Parlay: +250
-115 Geno Smith Rushing Yards Over 14.5
-115 Deshaun Watson Rushing Yards Over 20.5

Any good bets this weekend guys? I am going pretty heavy with CIN, BUF and SF moneylines and doing parlays and combo parlays with these. You guys spot any good player props? I haven't researched it yet but will tonight.

Pumped that SF won today! Hoping for BUF and CIN to follow through, as I've parlayed these picks with UFC stuff that hit today. Looking for the nice payday to come through tomorrow.

Also for NFL futures bets, the main ones I am waiting to come through for me are Mahomes MVP, Ken Walker offensive rookie of the year, Sauce Gardner defensive rookie of the year and Jefferson offensive player of the year. I think Walker deserves to win, but just worried about some outsiders like G Wilson and Purdy sneaking in to take it.

Glad to say I smashed my NFL bets/parlays this weekend, although it wasn't easy. SEA lead vs SF at one point, before the 49ers got hot and put them away. The BUF and CIN wins were not easy by any means, and the wins weren't certain until late in the games.

Looking ahead to next weekend, I'm looking to take KC to win and willing to go fairly heavy with it. Looking to possibly go with NYG +14 or +21 as they seem to be a team that battles and won't get completely run over. BUF vs CIN could be a close one with both teams making mistakes and the offenses looking inept at times. I may stay away from that game.

-115 Philadelphia Eagles -2.5
-120 Isiah Pacheco Over 48.5 Rushing Yards
-105 Kadarius Toney Over 33.5 Receiving Yards
+100 Marquez Valdez-Scantling Over 26.5 Receiving Yards

+230 Joe Mixon Rushing Yards between 51-75
+292 Joe Mixon Rushing Yards between 26-50
*66% of Joe Mixon's 36 games the past 2 years are between 26-75 rushing yards. This is a much better value than paying -115 for Joe Mixon under 60 yards which has occured 50% the last 2 years.

+192 Parlay
DeVonta Smith over 5.5 Catches
DeVonta Smith over 65.6 Receiving Yards

+281 Parlay
Jalen Hurts Over 249.5 Passing Yards
Jalen Hurts Under 46.5 Rushing Yards