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Old 10-14-2018, 08:02 PM   #101
Gonefishingmlb
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

KC +3.5, KC +170
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Old 10-14-2018, 11:43 PM   #102
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

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Originally Posted by haTTTrick View Post
panthers +1
bears -3

go mow lawns, rake the yards, look in the crouch, scounge as many dollars as you can.

this is a freeroll, no chance both lose.
Now I gotta wait for rain to so I can cut more lawns and build my bankroll back up.
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Old 10-15-2018, 12:02 AM   #103
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

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$3200 parlay loses by 1 and 2 points, erdheTJfdgffffffffff///
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Old 10-15-2018, 10:00 PM   #104
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

won some money on the chiefs/pats game, my buddy was generous to give me the pats straight up. I had a different guy offer me the same in the playoffs last year, jags vs pats. lol.
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Old 10-15-2018, 10:00 PM   #105
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

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won some money on the chiefs/pats game, my buddy was generous to give me the pats straight up. I had a different guy offer me the same in the playoffs last year, jags vs pats. lol.
people not in the loop are blinded by records
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Old 10-17-2018, 03:43 AM   #106
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

Wanted to get the thoughts of people smarter than me about potential hedging.

I currently have a $500 bet on Mahomes to win MVP at 67-1 odds, obviously I'm pretty happy to have that kind of value on the frontrunner. Should I start thinking about hedging with Brees and/or Gurley at this point or still too early and too much variance in NFL with 10 weeks left to go?
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Old 10-17-2018, 03:54 PM   #107
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

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Wanted to get the thoughts of people smarter than me about potential hedging.

I currently have a $500 bet on Mahomes to win MVP at 67-1 odds, obviously I'm pretty happy to have that kind of value on the frontrunner. Should I start thinking about hedging with Brees and/or Gurley at this point or still too early and too much variance in NFL with 10 weeks left to go?
way too early
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Old 10-17-2018, 05:37 PM   #108
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

I'd look into selling off a little bit of it or even try offering him at like 5 to 1 to win (Bovada is at 3:1) to get action - and it's probably best to do that now as his odds may never get this low as his hype may be peaking now. Seems like the easiest way to hedge instead of betting other guys so early. Haven't used it but could look at PropSwap to see what you can do as well.
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Old 10-18-2018, 03:18 AM   #109
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

Interesting, hadn't heard of Proswap. I'll check that one out.
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Old 10-18-2018, 12:14 PM   #110
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

Leaning the under tonight. Total line has gone up 2.5 since open despite most money being on the over.

man, what happened to the promise from the NFL in the preseason about TNF being "really good again"? There was a whole campaign they did about how people would be shocked at how good the games will be. I love football but DEN @ ARI isn't exactly a marquee matchup.
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Old 10-18-2018, 03:58 PM   #111
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

Denver because it landed on heads, crap games needs money make it watchable.
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Old 10-18-2018, 11:05 PM   #112
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

Keep that coin


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Old 10-21-2018, 12:42 PM   #113
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pats

allin
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Old 10-21-2018, 03:00 PM   #114
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

Bet titans +6.5 think I will put winnings on Dallas

No idea why .
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Old 10-22-2018, 06:14 AM   #115
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

Obv. the game could've landed wherever with Romo outcoaching both baffoons on the sidelines from the booth, but I have no idea why anyone thought Dallas was the clear better team going into that as the line said.

Next week's card is the worst I've seen. Not a single game to like.
Guess I'll ride this "undefeated fading Trubisky" streak provided there's 7+'s.
Maybe some Minnesota too; tough to sweep consecutive tough road games & I only like revenge games when the prior loser is home.

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Old 10-22-2018, 07:10 AM   #116
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

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Obv. the game could've landed wherever with Romo outcoaching both baffoons on the sidelines from the booth, but I have no idea why anyone thought Dallas was the clear better team going into that as the line said.

Next week's card is the worst I've seen. Not a single game to like.
Guess I'll ride this "undefeated fading Trubisky" streak provided there's 7+'s.
Maybe some Minnesota too; tough to sweep consecutive tough road games & I only like revenge games when the prior loser is home.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk
Bengals -1 v Bucs and Eagles -3 on neutral field both seem low.

Chiefs -whatever at home v Broncos free money. broncos away or at home so vastly different.

Also like Rams-9 v Packers, Saints +1,5 and probably put my whole BR on pats -6,5 and over teaser v Bills.
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Old 10-22-2018, 11:37 AM   #117
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

Falcons -4
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Old 10-22-2018, 12:45 PM   #118
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

tricky weekend, hope MNF can start the new week off right. Lotsa injuries on the falcons, so I'll go NYG in the "oh man am I betting on Eli Manning?!" game of the week.
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Old 10-22-2018, 03:23 PM   #119
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

Yeah I'm in the 'fade Eli camp' tonight.
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Old 10-22-2018, 04:23 PM   #120
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

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Originally Posted by Mike_McDee View Post
Yeah I'm in the 'fade Eli camp' tonight.
generally a good place to live but the public money (72%) being driven a half point away from Falcons by "sharp" money is noteworthy
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Old 10-22-2018, 04:41 PM   #121
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

Haha you're funny rainmaker. What about during the week, "sharp" money pushed the line to -6? Don't want to start an argument here, just funny that you only consider late line movement.
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Old 10-22-2018, 11:18 PM   #122
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

Bow down to rainmaker, good call man!
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Old 10-23-2018, 03:21 AM   #123
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

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Haha you're funny rainmaker. What about during the week, "sharp" money pushed the line to -6? Don't want to start an argument here, just funny that you only consider late line movement.
lots of books that take actual large bets up their limits around thursday, lots of local type shops move in response those books blindly.
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Old 10-23-2018, 04:34 AM   #124
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

Thanks but that's not always the case though. I've seen both ways. Like the Colts for example line moved from -7.5 to -9 very early then when it's game time dropped back to -7.
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Old 10-23-2018, 04:35 AM   #125
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Re: NFL 20181 season picks, discussion, etc.

Does it apply to one game like TNF or MNF only?
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