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Old 03-27-2019, 07:18 AM   #26
jjkfor20
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Re: Newby question...basic stats but hey...

Thanks very much for the feedback guys, I really do appreciate it!
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Old 03-27-2019, 10:25 AM   #27
TomG
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Re: Newby question...basic stats but hey...

what should we name our official 2+2 sports betting book? sklansky has "getting the best of it" already but just a few chapters on sports betting. "super system" already taken.
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Old 03-28-2019, 11:23 AM   #28
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Re: Newby question...basic stats but hey...

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjkfor20 View Post
Thanks very much for the feedback guys, I really do appreciate it!
You seem like a nice enough fella and youre getting trolled here pretty bad. Im going to be honest with you. PLease dont bet actual money on this. You dont have it...im sorry to say but Ive been doing this on my own for like a decade now and I, along with literally any other successfull bettor on here will tell you the same thing.

The things youre talking about are asinine. Its level 00 stuff. You think you can just bet on dogs because noobs like to bet 50 bucks on the favorite? You dont think anyone else ever thought of that?

If youre doing this as a learning experience, please by all means keep going and keep asking questions. Ill try to answer some. But you are very, very far away from being able to make money at that and as long as you know that, have at it my friend
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Old 03-29-2019, 04:24 AM   #29
akkopower1
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Re: Newby question...basic stats but hey...

Its not the worst idea ever.

You're just trying to determine if past prices and volume indicators can be used to determine the future. Schools are built to teach identical concepts in financial markets. The big difference being the almost zero vig on most tradeable financial products.
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Old 03-29-2019, 09:24 PM   #30
jjkfor20
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Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 15
Re: Newby question...basic stats but hey...

Thanks very much for the feedback! I really appreciate it!
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Old 03-29-2019, 09:36 PM   #31
jjkfor20
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Posts: 15
Re: Newby question...basic stats but hey...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Like View Post
You seem like a nice enough fella and youre getting trolled here pretty bad. Im going to be honest with you. PLease dont bet actual money on this. You dont have it...im sorry to say but Ive been doing this on my own for like a decade now and I, along with literally any other successfull bettor on here will tell you the same thing.

The things youre talking about are asinine. Its level 00 stuff. You think you can just bet on dogs because noobs like to bet 50 bucks on the favorite? You dont think anyone else ever thought of that?

If youre doing this as a learning experience, please by all means keep going and keep asking questions. Ill try to answer some. But you are very, very far away from being able to make money at that and as long as you know that, have at it my friend
Thanks for the frank feedback as I needed to hear it...just so frustrating that a sample can be large, show nice confidence intervals at 95%, and still be worthless, I assume I'm cherry picking the games somehow without realizing it. Can you suggest areas to study that will help me get off level 00?
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Old 03-29-2019, 09:51 PM   #32
akkopower1
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Re: Newby question...basic stats but hey...

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjkfor20 View Post
Thanks for the frank feedback as I needed to hear it...just so frustrating that a sample can be large, show nice confidence intervals at 95%, and still be worthless, I assume I'm cherry picking the games somehow without realizing it. Can you suggest areas to study that will help me get off level 00?
You were cherry picking.

The data could tell you that picking teams that start with the letter A leads to a positive return over 1000's of games. There are 100's of ways you could choose to pick teams and quite a few of those ways would show a positive return over a very large sample.

Start playing poker, with small stakes and turn a profit. Thats a great way to get into the mindset for sports betting.

http://puzzles.nigelcoldwell.co.uk/ Do those riddles, great way to get your mind ticking.

Being able to show a big positive return over a long period of time is hard to do. You need to have lots of things working together for you. You need to be smart enough to figure out how to develop a profitable strategy and then be smart/disciplined enough to actually implement it. Its hard to bet in a way that produces positive bankroll growth over the long term. Google Kelly criteria, spend a year learning it. It may seem simple, but there is a lot to it.
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