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NCAAB Hedging Question

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04-03-2019 , 03:38 PM

dawade

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 12,999

Entered two pools ($20, $5 -- big bank, I know) and I picked Virginia to win both.

If Virginia wins both games, I scoop both pools for $360 and $110, respectively. If Virginia loses to Michigan State, I get nothing. If they lose to Texas Tech, I still win the $360.

I am curious about hedging.

Obviously, the easy hedge is to ride Virginia one more game and then bet Michigan State, but I am curious if Auburn being there at +700 doesn't present some sort of hedging value that I'm not seeing?

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04-04-2019 , 12:16 AM

Yoshi63

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 1,940

If you truly wanted to hedge you'd do the following:

$132 on Auburn at +215 moneyline
$88 on a 2-team parlay MSU ml / Virginia ml at +110

If Auburn makes the finals, you have nothing left to hedge.

If Virginia makes the finals:
facing MSU, Bet $240 to win ~$228 on MSU
facing Tech, bet $55 to win ~$55 on Tech

All outcomes would yield you roughly $195. Your EV currently is about $217 if you simply let it ride. The hedging has an EV of about 10% less due to the vig paid.

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04-05-2019 , 04:56 PM

banned

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 1,307

Dude... let it ride. Unless you can get a +EV wager on the hedge, hedging out of a position like that with a couple hundred dollars on the line is like getting a hooker and only making out with her. not only is there no point, but its gross.

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