Horrible 1st quarter for the over, great 2nd and another horrible 1/4 in the 3rd....

Right now I'm chanting lets go OT, lets go OT

Let's go double OT!

Broke even tonight. Interesting game to say the least. Hope everyone did well.

BTW, when does Miami +3.5 payout?

Where was this prop?

Miami to win by 5.5 points or less?
yes +300
no -350

Local bet that I got last evening. Placed a big bet on the 'no' for good measure.

Won on Miami -4.5 tonight, lost a little tho since I stacked the over a little more....

Woot woot to the fading touters thread lol

Lines changed quite a bit, now, it's at
yes +400
no -460

Still good bet?

The Heats dictated the tempo in game 1, we should see the same in 2. As in my analysis matrix, its understood that we have 2nd rank defensive team vs a top 5 in Dallas, and the Mavs has yet to taste East coast's defensive style & there it is. Also, at home the Heats had won average 7 to 8 points included Boston series.
Obviously the Mavs will adjust in the the coming game but it won't make much different until return back home in game 3, and 4. The Heats' bench can't do no worst since the Sixers' series but upside since Heslem's returned. Also it's important to note minutes production from Bosh, Wade and Bron are each average 44 mins per game.

Take Miami -4.5
Take under 185.5

I forgot to check this thread the last few days, I'm surprised to see the total so far Off from the projected total. It looks like the public bet a lot on the over as well ( 70% ish it looks like) and I remember someone saying when the public heavily sides one way they are usually wrong for whatever reason.

Now that we've seen the outcome of game one you are switching to the under. Does it seem obvious now that the under was a good bet or was it just something that was too unpredictable ?

yes in game 1 the public was on over, & they have hit it now and then. the bottomline is the booker is in business to make money & they will set the line for public to choose, in ideal situation for them is to set a 50/50 proposition for gambler to choose. The perception is smart money is on the booker's side, & astute bettor do monitor the line moment & make deduction accordingly where the public is siding, but be warned that it had been know that the booker themselves do inflated the line moment to confuse people in general, & yes they're the winner in the long run.
Ability to side with the booker is just a factor, the other important one is to pick the winner with in depth of understanding the game through capping using information of key match up, game data etc, look for favorable spot > 60% probability of success factor, but even with the very best proven capper, the rate of success is >50% & 60% <, bases per season record.

Why it is so off, the explanation i can think of is:
seeing Dal came of a decent shooting against LA, Mem & OKC. Also seeing Miami put >188 pt at home against stingy PA Boston & would expect a slight below regular scoring game but not a super low like this one,
but it turned out in game 1, it's very rare to see both teams shots below 40% FG in 1st game of any opening series, also understandable that this is 2nd rank shooting defensive team vs a top 5 defense team with excellent jump shooting ability.

I think I made ~-420 fair value for game 1. Game 2 should be around the same.

Canucks roll tonight

'no' is going for -440 right now, not a good bet I guess.

LBJ u26.5 at +104 seems like pretty good value.
Dallas has done a good job keeping him off the paint and forcing tough jumpers. Also, if his past performance against Dallas is Poissonian, then fair value should be -300...

upgraded
Take Miami -4.5
Take under 186.5
I am on tweet now wit same user name: kobstopa , looks great on ipad - make sure you use wifi.

C'mon, gogogo Heat!! Bosh FTW.

I'm on board, go us

WNBA Lynx at LA Sparks - both are excellent teams, but LA should be dominant at home
Take Sparks -3.5

gl all

lol "Bosh had a dream that he was guarded by Stojakovic"

lol, followed the over game 1...33 points in the first quarter. took the under game 2...56 points in the first quarter...

Uh oh, the under!

Not looking good

Mavs playing really well right now, Heat are kinda struggling...,but they have Dwade.

If heat can defend in the next two quarters like they did in the last 3mins of 2nd then the under is still possible... im hoping

Wow...

i keep adding 95+93 hoping that it'll come out to 187 one of these times...terry's defensive lapse that let chalmers hit that 3 basically ****ed us all over