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Old 05-20-2020, 11:07 PM   #176
CodythePATRIOT
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

It was a good night that broke bad for you in the last seconds. Can't feel too bad about it. A good opportunity to learn and improve. I am tallying my night too, prob down a little.
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Old 05-20-2020, 11:10 PM   #177
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

sucks during the first rain i was tied for 1st for 70k

2nd big rain i was tied for first for 21k

then before elliott crash i was solo 6th where if he got 2nd would have put me into first

then poole exploding during caution wiped out almost all cash profits

we will get there bros
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Old 05-20-2020, 11:37 PM   #178
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

It is tough but a good learning lesson. Also you still have your cats, which is a plus.

Tally:

Risk: $1250
Return: $1397

Small win after all for me. 11.7% return not too bad. I am going to read up for this Sunday and post the info I find.
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Old 05-20-2020, 11:52 PM   #179
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Sunday is going to be interesting because they're qualifying ~2 hours before the race. Similar to Xfinity and Trucks. Have to run all the models in that short time frame. It can create a lot of value based on how bad people qualify.

What's even more tilting is Hamlin had bad tires so he was going to get caught easily. Busch had damage. So Harvick and Kese probably would have easily moved into 1/2.
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Old 05-21-2020, 10:37 AM   #180
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Was a little bummed, but looked at pred vs. actual and just gotta trust the process.





Lets get this Xfinity today
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Old 05-21-2020, 10:47 AM   #181
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I went through the top nascar tout and their r^2 last night was 0.44, so we there. Just need better construction
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Old 05-21-2020, 04:41 PM   #182
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

KB 6th after 9 laps lol. started 26th
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Old 05-21-2020, 05:45 PM   #183
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

KB sent to the back for speeding with 50 laps to go and now it's raining lol
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Old 05-21-2020, 05:47 PM   #184
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Kyle Busch to the back. Brutal.
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Old 05-21-2020, 06:07 PM   #185
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

he got a shot now with the caution

xfinity caution with < 20 laps is standard
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Old 05-21-2020, 06:25 PM   #186
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

crazy finish. dunno how brisco saved it when he went into the wall at the end

Win
0-2 -2u

H2H:
Burton > Briscoe +135 LOSS -1
Haley > Sieg +110 LOSS -1
Haley > Annet -115 WIN +1
Hemric > Herbst -115 WIN +1
Chastain > Cindric -115 LOSS -1.15
Haley > Herbst +135 WIN +1.35
Gragson > Herbst -130 WIN +1
Chastain > Gragson -130 LOSS -1.3
Chastain > Brandon Jones -110 WIN +1
5-4 +0.9u
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Old 05-23-2020, 06:34 AM   #187
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Listened to a podcast on the race.

First glance notes:

-Longest race of the year
-Increases emphasis on tire wear
-Notable Team is Joe Gibbs racing
-Truex Jr. most laps lead and fastest laps at Charlotte since 2016
-Hamlin, top 10 in last 14 of 16 races
-Bowman dominant on 1.5 mile tracks
-Buescher seems to over-perform here relative to other tracks. Good FD value.
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Old 05-23-2020, 10:09 AM   #188
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I don't believe the Buescher hype. He's actually underperformed at Charlotte and large oval tracks relative to non large oval tracks.

There could be some recency bias as last year he ended up in 6th, but he only got that high in the last 10% of the race. He picked up a lot of places during all the cautions. He just managed to avoid every accident. Outside of that he's been pretty consistently below average. It depends a lot on where he qualifies. I wouldn't use him in FD since he would probably need a top 10, but DK will depends a lot on where he qualifies. Mid 20s? Sure. Top 15? Fade IMO.

I wouldn't look at just 1.5 mile tracks. There's a difference between tracks like Chicago and Kansas which are 1.5 miles and Charlotte which is a quad oval. Charlotte has two dog legs, high banked, and has more emphasis on corner turning. Chicago, Kansas, Kentucky, and Las Vegas (other 1.5 miles) are shaped like a D with long straightaways. Turning is important there but corner turning is a different skill. Comparable tracks are Texas and Atlanta which are 1.5 and similar to Charlotte in shape.

I have Bowman middle of the pack which would have been fine a couple years ago, but he's high priced now. He's been killing this year though.

I like Hamlin and Truex of course. Kyle Busch always kills here. Two years ago he led something crazy like 380/400 laps and put up 200+ DK points.

Value plays are guys like Suarez, Stenhouse (if he doesn't crash), Byron, Newman, Austin Dillon. Suarez did good last year until he got a penalty on pit road with 10 laps remaining after Keselowski's tire exploded and went a lap down. I really like Aric Almirola (depending on qualifying of course).

Really have to wait until qualifying though. Having it two hours before the race will create a bigger edge.

Last edited by DefNotRsigley; 05-23-2020 at 10:16 AM.
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Old 05-23-2020, 04:42 PM   #189
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

one of the big touts brought up Almirola and Stenhouse so there goes our value

Other reason I'm not big on Beuscher is last year when he did good here he was with JTG Daughterty in the 37. Only time he's done good was in that car. Preece is in it now. Stenhouse is the only other JTG racer.
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Old 05-23-2020, 09:47 PM   #190
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Here's what I'm on for tomorrow. I don't think starting position will change these much.

To Win:

Truex +600
Elliot +850
Hamlin +1100
Harvick +650
Chevy +200
Hendricks MS +225
Odd +200
Truex > Kyle, Elliot, Harvick +300
Hamlin > Bowman, Kese, Logano +350

H2H:
Almirola > Tyler Reddick -115 **
Kyle Busch > Elliot -115
Truex > Elliot -115
Logano > Kese -115
Hamlin > Logano -105 **
Logano > Blaney -115
Kurt Busch > Byron -115
Custer > Bell -115
Truex > Bowman -115
Hamlin > Keselowski -105 **
Hamlin > Blaney -115
Kurt Busch > Erik Jones -115
Bowyer > Tyler Reddick -115 **

** most edge
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Old 05-23-2020, 10:52 PM   #191
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Nice, scooped some of these up and I am looking forward to this race tomorrow.

Sweating in this thread is probably the most fun I've had in the pandemic.
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Old 05-24-2020, 03:01 AM   #192
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

all lines moved in your favor in all but hamlin, nicely done
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Old 05-24-2020, 03:02 AM   #193
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

0-27 incoming can't wait
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Old 05-24-2020, 08:54 AM   #194
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

ya i tailed where i could on the sites where the lines were still ok compared to the market

gl guys
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Old 05-24-2020, 02:07 PM   #195
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

heads up - we are down a million units in Nascar - should probably fade

Qualifying on now. Lets get this data
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Old 05-24-2020, 02:11 PM   #196
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Byron got some tire rub which could be bad. It looks small but just a FYI

If he qualifies high and needs to change his tires he will go to the rear, meaning lot of negative place differential.

Yeley's rub was so much worse. He popped a tire. His qualifying was bad anyway.
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Old 05-24-2020, 02:32 PM   #197
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Ross Chastain +30000 to win looks nice. I'd put 1/10th of a unit on it since these bets are capped by how much you can win.

Buescher looks like he's going to start pretty high. I'd fade.

Harvick might be a fade too. Laps led is going to important here and he's starting mid-pack. He could still win, but the chance he gets laps led is small.
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Old 05-24-2020, 02:35 PM   #198
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Matt DiBenedetto hits the wall in practice. Has to go to a backup car (probably the car he used on Wed) and will go to the back.
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Old 05-24-2020, 02:50 PM   #199
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

lol Almirola spins on his warm up and qualifies last

Lock button SZN
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Old 05-24-2020, 03:00 PM   #200
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

qualifying done

thoughts: HMS and Chevy super fast. Those bets we made earlier should be good.

Qualified too high to be useable IMO: Reddick, Kenseth, Dillon, Bell, Stenhouse, Buescher, Ty Dillon, Ross Chastain

Good value: Almirola, Suarez, DiBenedetto

Going to be interesting who is going to get the laps led early between Kurt Busch, JJ, and Chase. Need to run some models to see who are good dominators
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