It was a good night that broke bad for you in the last seconds. Can't feel too bad about it. A good opportunity to learn and improve. I am tallying my night too, prob down a little.
Sunday is going to be interesting because they're qualifying ~2 hours before the race. Similar to Xfinity and Trucks. Have to run all the models in that short time frame. It can create a lot of value based on how bad people qualify.
What's even more tilting is Hamlin had bad tires so he was going to get caught easily. Busch had damage. So Harvick and Kese probably would have easily moved into 1/2.
-Longest race of the year
-Increases emphasis on tire wear
-Notable Team is Joe Gibbs racing
-Truex Jr. most laps lead and fastest laps at Charlotte since 2016
-Hamlin, top 10 in last 14 of 16 races
-Bowman dominant on 1.5 mile tracks
-Buescher seems to over-perform here relative to other tracks. Good FD value.
I don't believe the Buescher hype. He's actually underperformed at Charlotte and large oval tracks relative to non large oval tracks.
There could be some recency bias as last year he ended up in 6th, but he only got that high in the last 10% of the race. He picked up a lot of places during all the cautions. He just managed to avoid every accident. Outside of that he's been pretty consistently below average. It depends a lot on where he qualifies. I wouldn't use him in FD since he would probably need a top 10, but DK will depends a lot on where he qualifies. Mid 20s? Sure. Top 15? Fade IMO.
I wouldn't look at just 1.5 mile tracks. There's a difference between tracks like Chicago and Kansas which are 1.5 miles and Charlotte which is a quad oval. Charlotte has two dog legs, high banked, and has more emphasis on corner turning. Chicago, Kansas, Kentucky, and Las Vegas (other 1.5 miles) are shaped like a D with long straightaways. Turning is important there but corner turning is a different skill. Comparable tracks are Texas and Atlanta which are 1.5 and similar to Charlotte in shape.
I have Bowman middle of the pack which would have been fine a couple years ago, but he's high priced now. He's been killing this year though.
I like Hamlin and Truex of course. Kyle Busch always kills here. Two years ago he led something crazy like 380/400 laps and put up 200+ DK points.
Value plays are guys like Suarez, Stenhouse (if he doesn't crash), Byron, Newman, Austin Dillon. Suarez did good last year until he got a penalty on pit road with 10 laps remaining after Keselowski's tire exploded and went a lap down. I really like Aric Almirola (depending on qualifying of course).
Really have to wait until qualifying though. Having it two hours before the race will create a bigger edge.
Last edited by fkjlhfdkjhkj.; 05-23-2020 at 10:16 AM.
one of the big touts brought up Almirola and Stenhouse so there goes our value
Other reason I'm not big on Beuscher is last year when he did good here he was with JTG Daughterty in the 37. Only time he's done good was in that car. Preece is in it now. Stenhouse is the only other JTG racer.
Ross Chastain +30000 to win looks nice. I'd put 1/10th of a unit on it since these bets are capped by how much you can win.
Buescher looks like he's going to start pretty high. I'd fade.
Harvick might be a fade too. Laps led is going to important here and he's starting mid-pack. He could still win, but the chance he gets laps led is small.
thoughts: HMS and Chevy super fast. Those bets we made earlier should be good.
Qualified too high to be useable IMO: Reddick, Kenseth, Dillon, Bell, Stenhouse, Buescher, Ty Dillon, Ross Chastain
Good value: Almirola, Suarez, DiBenedetto
Going to be interesting who is going to get the laps led early between Kurt Busch, JJ, and Chase. Need to run some models to see who are good dominators