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Old 05-17-2020, 06:44 PM   #126
CodythePATRIOT
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Imagine winning a DFS nascar donkament in a pandemic.
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Old 05-17-2020, 06:46 PM   #127
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Imagine Truex having a loose wheel and still driving.
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Old 05-17-2020, 07:08 PM   #128
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

lets do it 30 left

got harvick and bowman to win

top 2
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Old 05-17-2020, 07:22 PM   #129
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

heyo harvick, we did it. kinda wish bowman caught him but it's ok.

looks like +2k or so in fantasy. had buescher/reddick/nemechek all about the same and of course chose buescher for cash/single entry. what could have been.

scared to calculate h2h results with kenseth in 10th lol
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Old 05-17-2020, 07:40 PM   #130
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

To Wins

Bowman +1600 L -1
Bowman +300 vs. Elloit, Keselowski, Truex Jr. Win +3
Chase +300 vs. those guys L -1
Toyota wins Real Heroes 400 +175 LOSS -1
Kevin Harvick +700 WIN +7 (got some +800 before the race when kyle was out too so nice)
Keselowski Top 3 Finish +300 LOSS -1
Harvick +300 over Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Logano WIN +3
Jimmie Johnson +275 over Erik Jones, Blaney, Kurt Busch LOSS -1
Ty Dillon +275 over Preece, Nemechek, and McDowell LOSS -1
Winning car number is even -180 WIN +1
Chase Elliot not in Top 5 -140 LOSS -1.4
Martin Truex Jr not in top 5 -130 WIN +1
Joe Gibbs car doesn't win the race -140 WIN +1
6-7 +8.6u on 14.9u wagered

H2H

Kyle Busch > Hamlin -130 LOSS -1.3
Harvick > Hamlin +105 * WIN +1.05
Logano > Hamlin +125 LOSS -1
Harvick > Logano -140 WIN +1
Keselowski > Truex +100 * LOSS -1
Keselowski > Elliot +100 * LOSS -1
Bowman > Truex +115 WIN +1.15
Jimmie > Kurt Busch +115 * LOSS -1
Jimmie > Byron -120 * LOSS -1.2
Kurt Busch > Kenseth -160 WIN +1
Blaney > Byron -130 * WIN +1
Buescher > Custer -125 LOSS -1.25
Austin Dillon > Custer -120 WIN +1
Custer > Bell -115 ************************ WIN +1
Austin Dillon > Bell -130 *********************** WIN +1
Harvick > Elliot -120 WIN +1
Harvick > Truex -125 WIN +1
Harvick > Kyle Busch +120 WIN +1.2
Logano > Elliot -110 LOSS -1.1
Logano > Truex -115 LOSS -1.15
Logano > Erik Jones -150 LOSS -1.5
Keselowski > Hamlin +115 LOSS -1
Jimmie > Jones +100 LOSS -1
Blaney > Kurt Busch -115 LOSS -1.15
DiBenedetto > Kurt Busch +150 LOSS -1
Jimmie > Buescher -120 LOSS -1
DiBenedetto > Byron -115 WIN +1
Newman > Byron +110 WIN +1.1
Jimmie > Kenseth -175 LOSS -1.75
Bowyer > Kenseth -105 LOSS -1.05
Buescher > Kenseth -145 LOSS -1.45
DiBenedetto > Kenseth -150 LOSS -1.5
NEwman > Kenseth +100 LOSS -1
Tyler Reddick > Kenseth +100 WIN +1
14-20 -8.9u

-9.35u came from the bets I added on today lol. I somehow ended up +$11,742.10 on h2h/to wins so the key is to run really bad close to lock so you can only bet it once
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Old 05-17-2020, 08:03 PM   #131
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Betting:

H2H -26.42% ROI on a 36.65% win rate over 191 unique bets (70-121)
To Win +42.53% ROI
Total: +9.53% ROI

lol both extremes
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Old 05-18-2020, 12:29 AM   #132
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Its looking like Tuesday and Wednesday are going to be rained out.



So I started looking forward to Charlotte. Charlotte is a 1.5 mile track with two dog legs near the start line. High banks, high speed, corner turning important. Hard to pass. Low tire wear. Place differential is hard to get at Charlotte, but the last 2 years have trended upward with more passing. About 20% of this race will probably be under caution.

Lot of this depends on qualifying, but

Kyle Busch has been really dominate as Charlotte especially on restarts. When he won here in 2018 he led 377/400 laps, had 139 fastest laps, and put up 209.75 DK points with 0 place differential (Started on the pole). His overall oval is okay, but Charlotte really skews it high. Truex Jr. is good too at Charlotte.

Chase Elliot is another one and add in his insane speed this year, he should be good regardless of where he qualifies.

Good value plays: Stenhouse Jr. (if he doesn't wreck on lap 1, not that fast here, but gains a lot of position), Almirola (same), Suarez (decent speed at these type of tracks), Bowyer (passes).

Good on oval tracks just not a lot of success at Charlotte: Ryan Blaney (good on gaining places on restarts, ~17 average fastest laps over last 10), Byron (won the pole here last year)

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Old 05-18-2020, 02:28 AM   #133
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Sweating NASCAR is pretty fun. Had plenty of Harvick and some other good ones. Now I will start running some sims and see what I can find out about this.
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Old 05-18-2020, 02:29 AM   #134
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Toyota and your other projections seem to be oppositely correlated IE it increases VIG.
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Old 05-18-2020, 09:49 AM   #135
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

If it runs

To Win:
Xfinity Toyota 200 Darlington Raceway - Kyle Busch -120
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Old 05-18-2020, 07:08 PM   #136
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Other Xfininity

Daniel Hemric to win +2500 (1/2 a unit, lets not lose all our Kyle Busch winnings)

H2H:
Burton > Briscoe +135
Haley > Sieg +110 (this is my five star pick of the week, what are you waiting for)
Haley > Annet -115
Hemric > Herbst -115
Chastain > Cindric -115
Haley > Herbst +135
Gragson > Herbst -130
Chastain > Gragson -130
Chastain > Brandon Jones -110
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Old 05-18-2020, 09:38 PM   #137
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

if anyone wants a free shot at 50k

https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/87318127

risk free, 5 entry max.
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Old 05-18-2020, 09:58 PM   #138
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Here's my initial projections for Wednesday



Early thoughts: Kenseth is ruining my model, might have to manually adjust. Model still hates Byron. Going to be a tough week because all the usual value racers are gonna start high due to the inversion.

Good to know: My model assumes everyone is going to finish so FD scores trend much higher. Also I think Ross Chastain is replacing JJ Yeley tho DK/FD still have Yeley listed not Chastain. If Yeley is racing I'll adjust, but it won't really change much.

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Old 05-18-2020, 10:20 PM   #139
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

and here's 17 h2h losers for Wednesday

Kyle > Truex -115
Kese > Kyle +115
Kyle > Bowman -110
Harvick > Truex -120
Harvick > Hamlin -115
Harvick > Bowman -120
Kese > Truex +115
Kese > Bowman +100
Logano > Elliot +105
Elliot > Jimmie -115
Logano > Jimmie -115
Logano > Kurt -115
Logano > Erik Jones +100
Erik Jones > Jimmie -115
Erik > Byron -115
Kurt Busch > Byron -115
Cole Custer > Bell -115

To Win:
Harvick +450
Keselowski +1150
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Old 05-18-2020, 10:40 PM   #140
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

3 more to win

Kevin Harvick +215 vs. Kyle Busch, Hamlin, Truex Jr
Brad Keselowski +325 vs. Bowman, Kurt Bush, Elliott
Clint Bowyer +305 vs. Almirola, Dibenedetto, Reddick
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Old 05-18-2020, 10:47 PM   #141
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

One (last?) Xfinity. The race could be shortened so

Noah Gragson +1750 to lose 1/2 unit
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Old 05-18-2020, 11:58 PM   #142
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

One way to test your model for success is to compare the predicted vs. actual. For one race it doesn't matter too much, but lets track it all season and see what happens.

Here's for 5/17 The Real Heroes 400

Actual vs. Predicted finish



Actual DK vs. Predicted DK

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Old 05-19-2020, 01:09 PM   #143
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Insider knowledge about todays race: Landon Cassill is parking.

So if you see any H2H against him, fade. Don't use him in any lineups, etc.
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Old 05-19-2020, 05:18 PM   #144
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Let's do this? NASCAR dominance continues tonight? I have had more fun watching this than other sports.
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Old 05-19-2020, 06:19 PM   #145
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Probably rained out for the night. NASCAR is literally the nut low.

Imagine not driving a car in the rain.
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Old 05-19-2020, 07:20 PM   #146
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I've been better at xfinity h2h but limited sample

race might start at 2am tho.

It's more likely they'll race tonight due to tomorrows race being delayed until Thursday and uncertainty if they can get both in on one day due to COVID

rain has really ruined almost every race this year
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Old 05-19-2020, 08:15 PM   #147
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Looks like they're gonna try and do both on Thursday.
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Old 05-19-2020, 08:39 PM   #148
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

It's a tough day for NASCAR fans everywhere. I didn't know what xfinity was 24 hours ago but now it getting delayed for 42 hours is truly a heartbreaking ordeal.
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Old 05-19-2020, 08:54 PM   #149
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

minor league Nascar. Lot of the scrub people in regular NASCAR race in xfinity

Pros usually avoid except Kyle Busch. He's allowed to race 5x/year.

Same with trucks.
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Old 05-19-2020, 11:06 PM   #150
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

JJ Yeley is going into the 77, so he's actually going to the back now for switching cars. Same with Gaulding.

Here's some updated results.



Much better results for Byron, still seem high on Kenseth.

It's really hard to find cheap people so I pulled in some Xfinity Steep track data and it looks like Cole Custer has some value. About the same value as Suarez but I'd trust his car more.

This is going to be a tough slate.
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