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Old 05-17-2020, 10:18 AM   #101
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I have Reddick coming in about 25th for ~30 points. Similar to a lot of guys in that price range

Dillon, Reddick, Stenhouse, Nemechek all about 30. Probably gonna put them all into a group and set a rule for max 1 of them.

Newman is cheaper and I have him doing better. Close to mid 30's in points.

Good thing I don't know about ownership prediction. Thought in the beginning of the week Kurt Busch was going to be under the radar and basically every DFS tout has mentioned him as a lock button person this week.

Probably going: Keselowski, Kurt Busch, Buescher, Ty Dillon, Ryan Newman, and Harvick or Kyle Busch for cash. I wanted to try and fit in Chase Elliott, but then I can only fit in Logano or need to rely on Suarez.

I think Jimmie Johnson is going to be a key decision for tournaments. Starting high and I have him finishing 7th or so, but if he can lead for some of it and get laps led he could break the slate. Most sites have his predicted ownership around 6-8%.
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Old 05-17-2020, 01:18 PM   #102
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I just added all of these. Please 0-35 this week

Harvick > Elliot -120
Harvick > Truex -125
Logano > Elliot -110
Logano > Truex -115
Logano > Erik Jones -150
Keselowski > Hamlin +115
Jimmie > Jones +100
Blaney > Kurt Busch -115
DiBenedetto > Kurt Busch +150
Jimmie > Buescher -120
DiBenedetto > Byron -115
Newman > Byron +110
Jimmie > Kenseth -175
Bowyer > Kenseth -105
Buescher > Kenseth -145
DiBenedetto > Kenseth -150
NEwman > Kenseth +100
Tyler Reddick > Kenseth +100
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Old 05-17-2020, 01:18 PM   #103
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Appreciate it--I had Reddick moving up to 17-20 which is what made him pop but going to pare him down as I'm sure your Nascar model is better than what I whipped together.

Any good sources for ownership predictions or just basing on tout recommendations? Everyone is talking up Kurt Busch as you mentioned. Could probably get a decent model for it using historical ownership, price, and win/T5 odds.
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Old 05-17-2020, 01:20 PM   #104
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

The guy at rotogrinders i forget his name usually has good ownership projections

Usually have some disagreements on points projections tho. His model seems to be big on Chase Elliot this week. I'm assuming it's favoring recent speed more than mine. I have Newman/Suarez projected for much more. He also likes Austin Dillon way more than me.

He's got Kese/Kurt Busch/Dillon highest aaround 35%

Jones/Nemechek/McDowell around 30
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Old 05-17-2020, 01:29 PM   #105
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

here's what i have for place diff. max pd is just qualify - median place diff based on 1,000 simulations. not sure why it says max. probably should change the header since max would be qual -1



negative



blaney and preece are two other drivers that a lot of touts seem to like but i don't.

suarez is super risky IMO. his car has been horrible all season but he's still managed to do great with it. Last race I think it was where he had something crazy like 40 fastest laps, but he went a lap down on the first lap due to a battery issue and could never get back on the lead lap. That's probably why my model loves him a lot since when he is actually driving great metrics. Just stupid stuff keeps happening to him
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Old 05-17-2020, 01:39 PM   #106
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Haven't subscribed to RG but maybe worth it if they have good ownership predictions. Crazy that they filled 115k entries 2 hours before lock. I think the $500K UFC contest yesterday filled like 12 hours before or something.
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Old 05-17-2020, 01:42 PM   #107
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

yea the $400 for nascar was filled when I woke up this morning. Glad I got it in last night.

They're doing a $600 next Sunday and another million. I'm guessing mid week they'll probably do 500k. Want to see what the xfinity will be since I've been crushing that.
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Old 05-17-2020, 01:58 PM   #108
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Kyle Busch median 2nd place? Is Kenseth dropping so much bc he's taking over for Larson?
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Old 05-17-2020, 02:19 PM   #109
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

It's a little rounding error. I have ranges for Kyle to be 2-8 with the distribution heavy towards 2.

Harvick 1-8 heavy towards 1. I'm guessing that Max PD is actually the max of my distribution not median. Haven't looked at it in 2 months whoops.

Kenseth part of is no data for 2 years, new equipment (tho the 42 car is good), no time on the equipment due to covid, he spend no time in the simulator, hasn't raced competitively in 2 years. He's been good on steep tracks in the past, but yea it's a tough one. I personally x'd him out in my 150 DK build hopefully that won't hurt. Might have a little of him on FD think 2%

but now drama kyle busch going to the back for failing inspection

value bet off that: Joe Gibbs car doesn't win the race -140
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Old 05-17-2020, 02:28 PM   #110
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

also for DFS this gives so much more value to harvick as he doesn't have to pass him anymore.
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Old 05-17-2020, 02:34 PM   #111
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Big news, Busch will count as starting 4th still for DFS I think. I'm fading Kenseth too, just him and Busch jumped out on your list but it not really being the median would make sense.
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Old 05-17-2020, 02:46 PM   #112
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

yep busch goes from 4th, so already -36. This happened I think last year too and he picked up a lot of spots early on, but ultimately scored only 10 points or so.

He should get a lot of fastest laps so on DK not totally dead, but went and X'd him out on FD.
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Old 05-17-2020, 03:56 PM   #113
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

lol stenhouse crashed on the 1st lap

classic him
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Old 05-17-2020, 04:38 PM   #114
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Bowman and Jimmie dominating. Hendricks motor sports is too good
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Old 05-17-2020, 04:50 PM   #115
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

and Bowman hits the wall racing in 1st

classic us
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Old 05-17-2020, 04:56 PM   #116
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

lol now JJ crashes in 1st with no one near him 300 feet from the end of the stage

we didn't model for all our drivers crashing in first
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Old 05-17-2020, 04:58 PM   #117
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Classic JJ, guy is a legend .
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Old 05-17-2020, 05:23 PM   #118
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

our projections are doing pretty good but JJ crashing is gonna lose like 8 units lol

top 3:
Harvick
Kurt
Bowman

all people we were big on

Kenseth down to 21st
Suarez does great and then spins out for no reason because the car is trash just like we thought.
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Old 05-17-2020, 05:37 PM   #119
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

The model is sound, there is just no way it could adjust for the incompetency of Jimmie Johnson.
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Old 05-17-2020, 05:45 PM   #120
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

critiakx2 needs to adjust his model to account for a piece of the wall breaking off, getting into hamlins grill, and then hamlin transferring it to reddick who was crushing with +20 place differential
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Old 05-17-2020, 05:50 PM   #121
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

lol then reddick gets a penalty in the pit for uncontrolled tire to go to the back

this sport everybody
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Old 05-17-2020, 05:52 PM   #122
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
critiakx2 needs to adjust his model to account for a piece of the wall breaking off, getting into hamlins grill, and then hamlin transferring it to reddick who was crushing with +20 place differential
By the time this model exists the singularity will have already happened.
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Old 05-17-2020, 06:02 PM   #123
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

air hose gets caught on Harvicks tire and he loses 8 spots

best pit spot space, kills every pit stop, and now this.
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Old 05-17-2020, 06:06 PM   #124
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Ahh, always seem to miss something obvious like the POWBOG factor. At least we've got 3 more races in the next week. Surely by then someone will have a machine learning module for nascar crashes and pit penalties.
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Old 05-17-2020, 06:08 PM   #125
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season



only 110 laps to go so this is a lock. we did it boys
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