Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-22-2020, 07:54 PM   #1026
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,488
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

i bet it +450. i really like the chase 9/1 if you can get it. I have fair now at +577.

bowman went down mostly because of harvick.

if there was practice i think harvick would be lewis hamilton type line. but with all the randomness now who knows
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-22-2020, 07:58 PM   #1027
donkey
adept
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 804
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Thanks, now trying to win grocery money limits on Harvick +475, Chase +900, Bowman +2500 and Blaney +1000
donkey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2020, 10:25 AM   #1028
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,488
Re: Nascar 2020 Season



rotodoc and fantasylabs in on alex bowman too
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2020, 03:02 PM   #1029
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,488
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Super Start Batteries 400

H2H From BM, fair line in []:

Kyle > Hamlin -125 [-142]
Harvick > Hamlin -165 [-211]
Truex > Chase +116 [-101]
Keselowski > aric -137 [-140]
Logano > Aric -120 [-138]
Bowman > Jones +112 [-149]

To Win:

Bowman 28/1
Chase 9/1
Truex 9/1
JJ 38/1

I really like Hendrick here minus Byron. Think I'm going JJ and Bowman in cash. Super bad idea but

Harvick/JJ/Bowman/Reddick/Ty/McDowell seems good. Much better for SE. Need another dom for cash. Preece is gonna pass all those back cars but I dunno. I don't trust him.
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2020, 03:55 PM   #1030
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,488
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I think we have destroyed the Alex Bowman USA market.

All the euro books still have him 30/1 and underdogs in h2h.

USA down to 16/1 and




this everywhere

Gonna be amazing when he does nothing
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2020, 07:50 PM   #1031
critiakx2
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 324
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Mostly went Harvick/Chase/Bowman/Ty/Mcdowell/Preece in SE. Looks like everyone's off Bowman this week.
critiakx2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2020, 11:48 PM   #1032
CodythePATRIOT
adept
 
CodythePATRIOT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 832
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Tough race. I lost about 7u, so close to being good. I have been burned so much on Even #, thought I was getting a good deal at -210.
CodythePATRIOT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-02-2020, 09:31 AM   #1033
erroneous
adept
 
erroneous's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,141
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I'm on:

Almirola>Kurt -125
Harvick>Hamlin -125
Blaney>Kese -105

Harvick +475
erroneous is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2020, 02:46 AM   #1034
CodythePATRIOT
adept
 
CodythePATRIOT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 832
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Pretty sure I just saw the tractor trailer that carries Austin Dillion's car on the 64 East. Not sure what value this provides other than I thought it was cool since I am a true NASCAR fan now.
CodythePATRIOT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2020, 02:58 PM   #1035
Floparabbit
banned
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Posts: 132
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Hardvick was like Mercedes in f1 last two races unbeatable unless they make a mistake or get caught up in something on track. Still won't back next time out as surely he can't outclass the field 3 races in a row. Klye Bush if he priced over 10/1. Car seems to be gett3 better race by race.
Floparabbit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2020, 12:53 PM   #1036
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,488
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Harvick isn't a good road course driver IMO, so he should struggle here. Chase/Truex/Blaney/McDowell are the best IMO.

Here's my XFin/Trucks notes

Daytona Road Course XFinity and Trucks preview

Both series have never raced on this course before and they're not allowed to practice for some reason so this will be a cluster****. Daytona is one of the easier road courses, so hopefully it won't be too hard for them to figure out. The hard thing is how you use your tires. I can see a lot of the less experienced drivers burning their tires up too quick. With stages pit strategy is always in effect.

For XFinity model I didn't have any Daytona history so I used road course history in general and gave some drivers boosts if they have experience in the track outside of this series. AJ Allmendinger has raced here a lot. I'm going to go back to the well with Haley. He was great last week and not pitting ended up screwing him. The normal pit rules are in effect this week so he should be okay. I'm also just gonna take a chance on some of the road course guys with big odds. Lally has 8 wins at this course. Pardus races here almost every week in a Miata.

Haley +2200 to win
Pardus +11000 to win
Lally + 4500 to win
Earl Bamber +4500

H2H:
Clements -115 over Annett [-139]
Haley -115 over Hemric [-144]
Haley -115 over Chastain [-122]
Allgaier -115 over Gragson [-129]

Trucks is a bigger concern. Most of the trucks racers are younger (18-19) with little to no road course experience. Even the veteran truck drivers only race on a road course once a year (Canada's mosport). People like Zane Smith, Tyler Ankrum, and Christian Eckes have simulators and iRacing rigs to work on, but I'm not going to trust it. My models won't even work for this race because of all the missing data, so these bets are more feel type bets.

Some notes:
- Ankrum finished 9th at Mosport last year and won the pole at Watkins Glen for a K&N Pro Series event. He switched truck chassis to one that finished fourth at mosport last year.
- Kris Wright is one of those road course ringers, but he has never raced in trucks. He finished 2nd here in the Rolex 24 LMP2 class and has a lot of experience on the Daytona Road Course. I personally have no idea how hard it is to race trucks, but his experience could be an advantage.
- Alex Tagliani is the other ringer. He's in a KMB truck and has 2 top 5s in 5 starts. He only races the road course in trucks and xfinity.
- Brett Moffitt, Todd Gililiand, and Sheldon Creed are good road course truck racers. Moffit has 1 win and 2 top 5's and he's running the same chassis as his 2019 win. Creed is using the 2018 winning chassis. Gililand has run good but has had some bad luck. In 2018 he was leading going into the final turn until his teammate, Gragson, crashed him.
- Derek Kraus has some trucks road course experience in the K&N Pro Series West at Sonoma. He also won the Trans Am Series there in 2019.

I'm going to take

To Win:
Kris Wright +1750
Todd Gililand +2700
Matt Crafton +2200

and one H2H: Todd Gililand over Tyler Ankrum -115.
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2020, 12:59 PM   #1037
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,488
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I bet these too

Pardus +140 over Bamber
B. Jones +135 over H. Burton
Haley +110 over Gragson
Haley +115 over Allgaier

This race should be a disaster. Can't wait.

For DFS pricing is pretty good on xfinity. Gdovic, Bamber, Buford are the PD road ringers.

Allgaier/Hemric probably need one of them. Allgaier has crashed 7 times in the last 10% of the race.

Myatt Snider spent a year in Europe racing road courses. Was good last race until he crashed at the end.

I like Heckert but it seems no one else does.
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2020, 02:30 PM   #1038
iceman9870
newbie
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 30
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Nice to see you post on the nascar thread sigs. Putting some loose change on the to win long shots. best of luck
iceman9870 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2020, 05:37 PM   #1039
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,488
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

lol haley runs up the curb and destroys his car
sorry i tried to save you guys from my nascar curse but i couldn't help myself today
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2020, 05:50 PM   #1040
CodythePATRIOT
adept
 
CodythePATRIOT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 832
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Nothing like the good old times. HALEY FTL. At least we can commiserate together.
CodythePATRIOT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2020, 05:55 PM   #1041
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,488
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

couldn't even win haley > chastain even tho chastain broke his car first

since neither finished the lap it reverts to who was in the lead the lap before
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2020, 09:08 PM   #1042
TiltedDonkey
veteran
 
TiltedDonkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 2,973
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Rsigs back?
TiltedDonkey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2020, 01:29 PM   #1043
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,488
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

big king of the speedway this weekend

anyone have bristol locks?
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2020, 04:34 PM   #1044
CodythePATRIOT
adept
 
CodythePATRIOT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 832
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Model likes Busch brothers- both traditionally crush here, maybe Kenseth as a value play depending how salaries stack up. Mixing in some Truex, Harvick, and Hamlin accordingly. Considering Bell and Custer for value and also going to see any price fluctuations on the #3 car.
CodythePATRIOT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2020, 04:39 PM   #1045
critiakx2
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 324
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Between baseball, football and US open this week don't think I'll be on Nascar but GL in the big contest. I'm sure TheChart + tout-fade knowledge is still the right way to play it.
critiakx2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2020, 11:54 PM   #1046
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,488
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I think Im going to punt on Suarez starting 29th.

I've been using the chart on twitter and we went on some crazy 55-20 run over a couple of weeks. Also nailed 4 winners at huge odds. Almost undoes all the horrible stuff that went on early in this thread lol

Gotta have Brad too.

Chase is the toss up. Do we trust Kyle? Blaney is great here until he hits a wall.

PReece should be good too but worried he's starting so far forward (22nd).

Nemechek should be good too starting 31st. Newman 25th, but him and Buescher are really struggling recently. The team sucks.

We won our seat at Bristol with Bubba and he's done nothing since.

JJ 24th should be a lock but maybe fade him for leverage? I know I'm going to overanalyze this **** and end up in last leveling myself
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2020, 09:18 PM   #1047
critiakx2
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 324
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

What's your twitter handle? I just lurk but happy to get you another follower

I don't trust Kyle, no practice narrative post-restart seems to be significant. Blaney's been a solid performer for the syndicate this year, imo
critiakx2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2020, 09:54 PM   #1048
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,488
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

https://twitter.com/AbnormallyDist

i have something that auto deletes tweets every monday that i forgot to turn off, but been running insane.

apparently fading blaney at bristol is a hot bed topic
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-19-2020, 10:22 PM   #1049
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,488
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

we self sabotaged ourselves

was going logano/kyle/bowyer/jimmie/buescher/nemechek

all week

about 10 mins before the race i switched to team leverage

with stenhouse, truex, jj yeley

it was such a horrible decision. stenhouse crashes on lap 20. truex is horrible like he always is at bristol. i didn't want to win apparently. i literally have no idea why i did it. was just sitting there waiting for it to start and i clicked it and started changing. not even looking at my notes or projections. just clicking random names

original lineup would have gotten top 3. think we got dead last lol
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-19-2020, 11:41 PM   #1050
CodythePATRIOT
adept
 
CodythePATRIOT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 832
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Hopefully Harvick ships us this championship.
CodythePATRIOT is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:40 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online