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Old 03-01-2020, 08:32 PM   #76
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

looks like they did grade Larson > Blaney since official results changed

so actually

5-8 -3.8 on h2h

and H2H YTD is 27-54 -20.05

we did it guys
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Old 03-07-2020, 03:39 PM   #77
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

can't quit until we broke

To Win LS Tractor 200, Kyle Busch -140

Noah Gragson -115 over Brandon Jones
Hemric +150 over Ross Chastain
Ross Chastain -130 over Austin Cindric
Chase Briscoe +170 over Allgaier
Hemric +140 over Harrison Burton
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Old 03-07-2020, 03:55 PM   #78
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Another to win: Justin Allgaier +900

He's done good here in the past.

Allgaier +130 over Keselowski
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Old 03-07-2020, 04:08 PM   #79
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

last 2

Chastain -115 over BRandon Jones
Snider +140 over Sieg
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Old 03-07-2020, 07:31 PM   #80
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

To Win LS Tractor 200, Kyle Busch -140 LOSS -1.4
Justin Allgaier +900 LOSS -1

To Win: 0-2 -2.4u on 2.4u risked

Noah Gragson -115 over Brandon Jones L -1.15
Hemric +150 over Ross Chastain L -1
Ross Chastain -130 over Austin Cindric L -1.3 (hit the wall with 2 laps to go!)
Chase Briscoe +170 over Allgaier WIN +1.7
Hemric +140 over Harrison Burton L -1
Allgaier +130 over Keselowski L-1
Chastain -115 over BRandon Jones L-1.15
Snider +140 over Sieg L-1

1-7 -5.9u on 8.6u risked

lol we should just bet the opposite
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Old 04-18-2020, 05:38 PM   #81
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

These aren't fixed, so we should lose them all

Hamlin +110 over Kligerman
Busch +155 over Preece
Bowyer +105 over Chastain
Hill -155 over Nemechek
Kligerman -110 over Preece
DiBenedetto +200 over Preece
Smithley +100 over Nemechek

To Win:
Timmy Hill +575
Hamlin +1500
Smithley +1800

Byron is good but too much hype on him IMO
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Old 04-19-2020, 11:57 AM   #82
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I've been looking at Kyle Buschs iRacing data and the dude has been grinding 60 hours a week and getting much better.

Lets bet on him to win at +4000
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Old 04-19-2020, 02:18 PM   #83
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

So Preece spun out DiBenedetto, DiBenedetto waited for him and intentionally drove directly into him. Can't really model for that. Hopefully that bet will push.

They both got black flagged so at least other fade preece bets will win
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Old 04-19-2020, 02:26 PM   #84
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

is this streaming anywhere?
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Old 04-19-2020, 02:33 PM   #85
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

https://www.twitch.tv/geo879/

or on Fox

christopher bell just got catapulted through the air, flipped, and crashed 9 times
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Old 05-11-2020, 10:51 AM   #86
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Rsig, you like anything at Darlington?
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Old 05-11-2020, 12:38 PM   #87
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Been working on updating the model the past week, maybe we will actually win. They haven't released the people who are racing yet (at least as of this morning), so gonna wait for that. Just based on the type of track (with no practice or qualifying data) people like Jimmie Johnson should be good at long odds. Hamlin and Harvick are also good at these type of tracks. For DFS Kurt Busch should be a low owned person to target.

I've been looking through my predicted finish this year vs. actual finish and the R^2 is actually pretty high (which means we've been good at predicting). We've just been getting crushed in H2H. DFS and "To Win" have been doing great.

I'm working on a Did Not Finish prediction using track data + individual data. Hopefully that will fix all the crash issues. My model will probably keep running like everyone finishes, but it could give insight on spots to avoid or races altogether to avoid.
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Old 05-12-2020, 06:16 PM   #88
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

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Old 05-12-2020, 06:19 PM   #89
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I heard no practice too...cluster f might be an understatement. I imagine 2 months off real racing + no practice or qualifying would increase the DNF%? Unprecedented times we're in.
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Old 05-12-2020, 07:10 PM   #90
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

No practice, competition caution Lap 30 for Cup, 15 for xfinity.

The only strategy I can see is historical driver/team data on darlington and similar tracks

Homestead-Miami is the only track really similar to Darlington. Both are steep tracks made of asphalt. Sun is a big factor here as it causes changes on the track. Wednesday could be at night which is actually gonna be a different setup than day. So Sundays data could be useless for Wed (and might create opportunities for Wed if people are like it's the same thing as Sunday so and so did good and locks them in)

Bristol and Dover are steep tracks but they're made of concrete so there's a different grip.

In general on steep tracks you want to focus on drivers who do good in loose cars and like to drive at the top of the track. The inside has shorter distances, but you can get a lot of speed on the outside so people prefer that, but it's risky because you can hit the wall.
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Old 05-12-2020, 08:07 PM   #91
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I went back and looked at the last 5 years for Darlington and Homestead

Homestead: 3 wins for Toyota, 1 Ford, 1 Chevrolet

Darlington: 4 wins for Toyota, 1 for Ford

Toyotas really seem to dominant this race.

Toyota drivers: Truex, Kyle Busch, Hamlin, Suarez, Erik Jones, Christopher Bell

Xfinity: Brandon Jones, Harrison Burton, Riley Herbst

Kurt Busch also has a really high driver rating at these type of tracks, so depending on where he starts I think he will be really good value. JJ was good but last year was horrible. Most Nascar drivers peak in the early 40s, he's 44 so that might explain it.
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Old 05-13-2020, 11:23 AM   #92
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Appreciate the response. I'll def be checking in here until the race planning to follow you lol
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Old 05-14-2020, 07:44 PM   #93
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season



Starting positions. Looking through my model and the biggest predictor at Darlington has been practice speed over a large amount of laps. So that's great because we don't have that.

Also we only have five races data this year, but two of them were at super speedways. And only two of the non super speedways were at tracks > 1 mile. So basically this is going to be hard and probably lose tons or win tons on accident.
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Old 05-14-2020, 07:56 PM   #94
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Just off the positions and rough run of the model, Alex Bowman at +1600 looks like an insanely good price and I'm surprised it's available. He's had great speed all year.

He's averaging 22.5 fastest laps per race this year. 3rd behind Chase (29.8) and Harvick (22.8)

Also Bowman +300 vs. Elloit, Keselowski, Truex Jr.
Chase is also +300 against those guys. I'd take both. Bowman or Chase is favored against the other 2.
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Old 05-15-2020, 02:25 PM   #95
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Interesting information on the biggest predictor for this race. I jumped on the Bowman bet to win, seeing it at around +1400 now. I'll be checking on sites to try to find those other bets as the race gets closer

Tytyty. Lets go Bowman. Ready to buy my Bowman gear if he can pull the race out.
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Old 05-15-2020, 08:59 PM   #96
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Toyota wins Real Heroes 400 +175

I have fair as +122
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Old 05-16-2020, 10:51 AM   #97
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Here's what I got. Lets fade them and make $$

Kevin Harvick +700 to win
Keselowski Top 3 Finish +300
Harvick +300 over Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Logano
Jimmie Johnson +275 over Erik Jones, Blaney, Kurt Busch
Ty Dillon +275 over Preece, Nemechek, and McDowell
Winning car number is even -180 (I have 7 of the top 8 projected spots to be even numbers. Only non even is Hamlin in the 11 - Harvick, Kyle, Kese, Logano, Hamlin, Bowman, Jimmie, Blaney)

and there way too many h2h. I put * next to the ones I feel have the bigger edge

Kyle Busch > Hamlin -130
Harvick > Hamlin +105 *
Logano > Hamlin +125
Harvick > Logano -140
Keselowski > Truex +100 *
Keselowski > Elliot +100 *
Bowman > Truex +115
Jimmie > Kurt Busch +115 *
Jimmie > Byron -120 *
Kurt Busch > Kenseth -160
Blaney > Byron -130 *
Buescher > Custer -125
Austin Dillon > Custer -120
Custer > Bell -115 ************************
Austin Dillon > Bell -130 ***********************

Ultraplay started offering Nascar which is nice. More ways to lose.

Last edited by DefNotRsigley; 05-16-2020 at 10:57 AM.
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Old 05-16-2020, 11:03 AM   #98
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Here's who I'm targeting for DFS, any ideas?

Cash: Kurt Busch, Ty Dillon, Keselowski, Buescher then swap in two people who will get a lot of laps led/fastest laps/finish high. Maybe Kyle Busch and Harvick?

Tournament: Build around those guys but swap in some Newman, McDowell, Truex, Nemechek

Buescher and Ty Dillon are my core value plays.

Ty is probably the best. He's starting 33rd and I have him finishing ~21

Ryan Newman is one I'm not sure on. He's starting 21 and model predicts him to finish around 15th which would be some decent points for his price but he did almost die last month. Legendary racer Cole Trickle struggled after a major crash in his first race back. Will Newman do the same?

Suarez is another that most people will probably target. Have him moving ~13 spots but he always seems to disappoint and end up a lap down before the race even starts.

Last edited by DefNotRsigley; 05-16-2020 at 11:13 AM.
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Old 05-16-2020, 11:49 AM   #99
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

2 more

Chase Elliot not in Top 5 -140
Martin Truex Jr not in top 5 -130

Have them in 9-13 range of finishing.
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Old 05-17-2020, 02:02 AM   #100
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
Here's who I'm targeting for DFS, any ideas?

Cash: Kurt Busch, Ty Dillon, Keselowski, Buescher then swap in two people who will get a lot of laps led/fastest laps/finish high. Maybe Kyle Busch and Harvick?

Tournament: Build around those guys but swap in some Newman, McDowell, Truex, Nemechek

Buescher and Ty Dillon are my core value plays.

Ty is probably the best. He's starting 33rd and I have him finishing ~21

Ryan Newman is one I'm not sure on. He's starting 21 and model predicts him to finish around 15th which would be some decent points for his price but he did almost die last month. Legendary racer Cole Trickle struggled after a major crash in his first race back. Will Newman do the same?

Suarez is another that most people will probably target. Have him moving ~13 spots but he always seems to disappoint and end up a lap down before the race even starts.
Haven't done much Nascar DFS in the past but on a lot of the same names. Like Truex/Kurt Busch/Buescher/Bell for cash. Fading Suarez entirely--don't he's a good enough play for cash and have Dillon/Nemechek/McDowell all close enough that I'd rather just leave extra salary on the table and split with fewer entries.

Any thoughts on Reddick for DFS?
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