oh **** i was gonna switch the bottom line to single entry and top to cash and accidentally set the bottom to everything and they locked

lets get it

I went Briscoe/Gragson/Herbst/Hill/Graf/Howard. Second was Brown/Little in for Graf/Howard since I wasn't sure I could trust Howard. Felt much better about the high-end then the low-end

lol accident on lap 1.

brandon jones dead which is great because i had a bunch of him

i wonder who wins our brandon jones over jeb burton bet

Jones is officially out, Jeb isn't

nothing like losing 3 bets in the first lap

brandon jones > jeb -150
brandon jones > haley -130
jeb > haley +145


L L L

Main cash lineup is the top dupe in the $8 -- srn entered it 150x, gg to that one

tommy joe on pit road like clockwork

i dunno why srn does that. saw him win once with all 150 tho so guess when it works it works

Looks like there's a couple people who intentionally run the lineup trains, pretty weird. Cash lineup looking strong so far, was tied for 1st for a little in the $8 with only a 2-way dupe but now don't have anything outperforming my cash line currently just like usual.

Colby Howard into the wall, there goes my cash lineup too

that was so random too. i was big on howard in gpp whomp whomp

4th in the $180 spotter. only way i win is if something bad happens to herbst

oh wait bad can happen to bassett too but that would hurt you

I fully faded Basset which is why he's safe. That second lineup you posted is crushing it, good time to make the mistake of overwriting all cash with it imo

sitting at 327 now, but who knows with this restart.

bassett please. need 14 points and my ceiling is kind of hit. little and finchum can't gain enough.

herbst would be the best but we got a lot of h2h with him so need that double money

lol both allgaier and gragson into the wall

and ross passes both of them so we lose all the h2hs

20k swing

jesus christ

i went from up 17k in dfs and winning almost every h2h

to barely breaking even and probably losing all h2h on a restart because some idiot in 17th can't keep his car from going into the wall

and then two idiots ran into each other on the restart

Ended up winning a little (+30%) but that end was more tilting than losing everything with some Kyle Busch mistake. Was in first after stage 2 with a small chop but still +24k, then +11k before Colby, +2k before OT and now +300.

Inversion with preset pricing again for DFS tomorrow. Might just stick to cash and 3-max instead of mme.

annett > hervst -115 LOSS -1.15
herbst > alfredo -115 WIN +1
annett > alfredo -115 WIN +1
annett > jeb +100 WIN +1
noah > ross -120 LOSS -1.2 (CRASH)
brandon jones > jeb -150 LOSS -1.5 (CRASH)
brandon jones > haley -130 LOSS -1.3 (CRASH)
h. burton > ross +125 LOSS -1 (CRASH)
allgaier -115 > ross LOSS -1.15 (CRASH)
herbst +125 > jeb WIN +1.25 (CRASH)
herbst > haley +150 WIN +1.5
jeb > haley +145 LOSS -1 (CRASH)

5-7 -2.55u

that crash at the end was a 6.6u swing on h2h and ~17k in dfs.

still won $2033.18 for 57.91% roi in dfs but **** man. how many times do we get screwed at the final restart. this is at least 5 this year.

add in our guy leading 1st with no one near him and crashing into a wall due to a blown tire and it's over 10

Wonder if Jeb Burton's accident will impact Hemric for tomorrow, think they were supposed to be running the same car with different drivers for the two races

yea i was gonna lock in hemric and jones tomorrow but need to look at things now.

no practice is ruining everything.

mills and smithley had no brakes

accident at start

alfredo's steering wheel didn't work

williams had issues

all these tires issues

Allgaier is in the hospital now too due to that accident. Probably will be out tomorrow.

here are my trucks projections. i tend to avoid betting anything in the same tier unless there's some big +. I run simulations for every h2h. These tiers are basically drivers that grouped together in all of them (i.e., when I run h2h with these guys they tend to be 50/50 and also have about the same chance to win)

PSA: I'm not betting any trucks h2hs - maybe some more to wins (already did Chandler smith). Its been a disaster all year for me. So I wouldn't bet anything. Just see if it would have won and then hate yourself if it wins, feel good if it loses



Probably play DFS even tho all I do is lose at trucks.

Top 5 for DFS:
Eckes
Mofitt
Gray
Smith
Hill


Hidden value: Trey Hutchens, Codie Rohrbaugh

Mid tier value: Grey, Enfinger, Poole, Majeski

lied to myself

bet

Rhodes > Sauter +100
Chandler > Zane -110
Chandler > Gilliland -115
Chandler > Rhodes -115
Enfinger > Crafton -115
Truex > Lessard -115
Kraus > Purdy -115
Kraus > Kligerman -115
Majeski > Kligerman -115
Enfinger > Creed +100
Enfinger > Gilliland +115
Enfinger > Ankrum -115
Creed > Ankrum -115
Rhodes > Zane -115

have Chandler to win from before (Down to 7/1!)
bet Eckes +650

My first for trucks dfs was Smith/Eckes/Gray/TyHill/Kligerman/Davis but only spent 5 mins on it after pricing came out. Also my favorite esport call of duty comes back tomorrow with some $50 limit derivative opportunities just posted and small prize-pool dfs available. Should be a fun weekend

i haven't played CoD since CoD2, so i can't win there

if Allgaier doesn't come out of the hospital Jimmie Johnson might race his car. Put Hemric in the 8, JJ in the 7. Wonder if they'll add him to the pool.

This would be interesting and always Hemric wouldn't be super chalk since he would be starting 20th not last.

I think DK has a rule where if you select a guy and someone else races his car you get the points but that might only be if it happens mid-race, might need to look that up

haven't seen any kentucky 2 lines, but here's rankings for finish position (h2h/to win betting not dfs)



cash is probably going to be super chalky since salaries were out pre invert.

Need to check up on backup cars. If Colby has one then he's going to be massive value.

Going to go back to the Cindric/Gragson well. I like Brandon Jones too for only $9800.

Hemric should be a lock unless his scoring is weird.

Smithley looks interesting. His master cylinder went bad early and he had no brakes the entire race. They should be able to fix everything and he's starting far back.

might do: Gragson, Cindric, Hemric, Howard, Jones, Smithley

waiting to hear about Allgaier and backup cars first

and cup update based on standing position

Key changes: Harvicks not as big of a favorite. Before it was ~2 median finish difference between him and KB, now its about 1. Then 1 from KB to Keselowski.

Logano moved up starting 2nd. Hamlin got hurt some but that Truex-Kurt range are all separated by less than 0.6 points

then 1 point gap to blaney, 1 to aric, 1 to bowman, 1 to jones, 1 to bowyer, JJ/Matt/Kenseth/Byron separated by combined 0.2

For cash I think Newman is the ultimate value this week (lets get it rickroll). McDowell, or Nemechek are great too. There's so much value this week IMO.

I really like Kurt Busch for only $7600.

Top tier: Bell, Hamlin, Blaney, Byron, Harvick

Mid tier: Kurt, Reddick, Jones, Keselowski, Truex

Avoid: Chase, Logano, Bowyer

Probably gonna play him but get screwed: Kyle. Similar situation to Logano last week.

I forgot they changed the package in 2019 for Kentucky cup, so pit strat actually is important here. Not as much as last two races but it will be a factor. Xfin runs a different package where they're basically forced to take 4 tires. You saw what happened to Haley and Clements yesterday when they only took 2.

Hamlin has one of the worst pit stop crews in terms of time, but they're smart strategically.

Top 5 pit crews in terms of time

1) Chase
2) Harvick
3) Truex
4) Logano
5) Kyle

Top in strategy (qualitative)

1) Harvick
2) Hamlin
3) Newman