newman accident too. rickroll and i combind to curse him

somehow my lineup is #1 in the $1500 single entry and a bunch of other single entry even with a 0 from preece.

winning every double up and h2h too.

gonna get better when bell eventually pits.

thank you logano

****ing jones is on fire

i knew i should have faded him

byron too. blows a tire on restart.

was super heavy on him in tournaments

this is amazing

blaney into the wall. jesus christ wtf is this race

I was actually back to even too with a couple decent gpp lineups before jones/blaney/byron. Back to getting destoyed again

Hamlin randomly into the wall?

this thing is hilarious

i think it was the right thing to fade logano. exactly what we said will happen happened. led 12 laps, someone stayed out, lost the lead and never got it back.

but then everyone crashes randomly, can't plan for that.

the FD lineup is killing. hope it kills enough to cancel out all this DK loss

LOL BELL IS PITTING DUE TO VIBRATION

i might kill on DK now even with 3 drivers

have no idea how we won money



h2h saved us on DK for a small loss. FD we crushed.

Harvick +650 to win. Lost Blaney/Logano. Scared to look at the h2h bets

whats the book im a bit of an f1 nerd.

https://leanpub.com/wranglingf1datawithr/

h2h on BM went 6-4 +1.17u

3 losses and -4.1u from hamlin crashing. one win because of it (which harvick could have passed him), so that hurt a lot.

harvick to win cancelled it out.

bet a bunch of groups too but not sure who they were against

one was kenseth +240 and another was harvick +225 so both those won

pretty sure the newman one lost

then i have one kurt busch +250 but no idea who it was against. probably should have written that down

that Kurt Busch was against Jones/Byron/Bowman and they all crashed so hey not bad.

the chart did pretty good considering all the wrecks

+1.17 on h2h, +4.5 on to win, +6.15u on groups

i won't be here for xfin because it's the middle of the week. should be back in time for another cup wtf is going on session

Nice, have a nice vacation. Nothing like a little fishing to take your mind off another clusterf*ck NASCAR race.

Lost pretty big on DK gpps but +2x on FD with very low volume. Almost recovered on DK when Hamlin crashed. Last couple months have done just awful, need to do some retooling here

damn dude, i always knew you were good but you nailed his 0% win chance here

how does sigs do it?

ha usually those games rarely win at tracks like this. it's not their fault but their equipment just isn't up to par.

They can fare better on non traditional oval tracks or ones with a lot of chaos (daytona and talladega)

Newman does have some skills at ovals just not the pocono/indianapolis kind. Next week at Kentucky he should be decent. I have him ranked 19th.

This is independent of starting position and I don't even have the entry list so I just used the top 40 in points. Here's how next week looks



Another Harvick week. I have him as a massive favorite to win. Kyle Busch avg predicted finishing place is 2 more than him. Largest gap all season.

Keselowski is 1/4th of points from KB for comparison. All of 2-9 is separated by less points than Harvick to KB.

Then about 2 point gap between Blaney and Jones. From Jones-Kenseth is another 2 points

1 point gap to AD, 18-21 close. Then it starts to spread out.

These should change based on starting position, but no matter where Harvick starts (since he's guaranteed top 12) I think he will still be the favorite.

Harvick is good, but he's also lucky. All his good track types are one after another due to covid. He's benefited the most from this schedule. He should be the favorite at Texas too.

Track preview for next week

Kentucky Speedway. Large oval with low tire wear. Hard to pass here. Similar to Charlotte we saw a couple months ago at this point (they had two races there at the end of May, one won by Keselowski other by Elliott)

People who are good here ranked by driver rating for last 5 races.

1) Martin Truex Jr.
2) Kyle Busch
3) Kevin Harvick
4) Erik Jones
5) Kurt Busch
6) Keselowski
7) Kenseth
8) Hamlin
9) Logano
10) Blaney

If you add in this years ratings Harvick becomes a massive favorite. Kyle Busch is dead this year. His biggest advantage was always practice and without it I would keep fading him.

Truex is the interesting one. First race at Charlotte he destroyed. Led 87 laps, 56 fastest laps, highest driver rating, but there was that Elliott pitting incident at the end which got him in 7th because he followed the pack.

The second race on wednesday he was a disaster using a back up car. The first race is more indicative of his skill here IMO.

Could be a good value play since people seem low on him after the last couple of weeks.

Same with Chase Elliott. Remember when he was the second coming of God during COVID and everyone was touting him? I don't think they mentioned his name once all race today. He could also be a good rebound guy. His history here is ok, but 2020 green flag speed is still amazing.

To see how crazy Kevin Harvick will be this month - in the last 5 Texas Races he's averaged 97.7 DK points, has 3 wins, 4 top 5's, and 5 top 10s. His lowest finish was 8.

He's averaged 59.2 fastest laps and 84.2 laps led. So yea just lock him at Texas.

Kentucky he has 0 wins and only 1 top 5 in 10 years. I'm assuming my model is over weighing him due to this years crazy performance, especially at similar tracks.

Whenevr lins are up gonna drop a win on truex, hopefully good odds

Circa opening lines

Harvick 4/1
Chase 5/1
Hamlin 5/1
Kyle 6.5/1
Keselowski, Logano 8/1
Truex 10/1
Blaney 12/1
Bowman 16/1
rest 25/1 or worse

I put some on Kurt Busch +2500, Truex +1000, Blaney +1200, Harvick 4/1

Wow DK sportsbook might actually be sharp here

Truex +500 and the favorite there.

Couple good to win bets

Trucks: Chandler Smith 12/1 (good to 9/1). Guy is amazing. He's allowed to race this track now that he's 18. In Kyle Busch 51 truck. Starting 10th.

XFin:
Michael Annett 150/1 (good to 70/1) - I have no idea why he's so high. Starting 4th
Gragson 7/1 - #1 xfin driver IMO. Chase Briscoe has a better pit crew, but I have him ranked #1 for skill.

rankings for xfin



i do these a little diff than nascar due to higher variance. so you'll see some ties

here's what i bet too

annett > hervst -115
herbst > alfredo -115
annett > alfredo -115
annett > jeb +100
noah > ross -120
brandon jones > jeb -150
brandon jones > haley -130
h. burton > ross +125
allgaier -115 > ross
herbst +125 > jeb
herbst > haley +150
jeb > haley +145

Bassett failed inspection twice but not being sent to the back. Shame too since I think he's gonna be chalk today.

I dunno, I'm kind of stuck between him or Little now. Both are horrible, but Bassett has the lower floor. My only thing is I don't think there's going to be a lot of crashes or passing. So little could finish top 20 and nab about 30 points whereas bassett should be lower 20s.

I'm going back and forth between

Briscoe/Cindric/Herbst/Brown/Graf Jr/Little

and team jam in the studs

Cindric/Gragson/Allgaier/Graf/Finchum/Little

I really like Herbst here so I prefer the top one, but this is a short race and finishing position will matter the most. Maybe I'll flip a coin.