Decent slate, I ended up ~2x played too much of the chalk lineup should've stuck with yours and won all the H2Hs instead of chopping them. Fun race too

that lineup got super lucky because pardus stayed out. only won by 1.5 point. it also came down to belicki's pit strat. no idea why they pitted at the end. they weren't going to win.

gdovick > labbe and we easily crush it by 9.5 and move up a bunch in some single entries. probably cost ~3k? I know gdovick would get some points but crazy that he ended up almost in the top 10. I don't think anyone predicted that.

if i went weatherman > leicht in that tourney would have gotten 1st. whoops. had 4 combos of that lineup with different cheap guys. 0 weatherman

bets 0-3 lets see what happens

allgaier pit penalty at the end
herbst car breaks a frame with 4 laps to go when he was a lap up on alfredo
ross just beats clements so that one was ok.

run good.

For tomorrow my first was Harvick/Hamlin/Blaney/Jones/Preece/Lajoie. Think I might want Logano/Mcdowell > Lajoie/Blaney for SE but will see where they're predicting ownership to go. Custer & Ryan Newman also look like decent options for low salary.

Not sure I want to pay up for Bell even in gpps. Basically needs ~15th for 4x and ~5th for 6x.

need to look at data, but i think gonna ride with Logano/Harvick. Logano screws me every time I play him, but he's gonna be out front (until I bet he gets passed on lap 1). If he can keep the lead early could easily get tons of dom points.

His pitting strat has been good too, just stupid things keep happening to him. He's 4th in YTD driver ratings (harvick, large gap, keselowski, elliot, logano), just hasn't finished anything post covid.

Bell is super cheap on FD so I'd play him there. Preece is better option on DK.

The biggest PD projected guys I have are:

(1) Harvick [10]
(2) Bowyer and Preece [8]
(3) Jones, Blaney, and Byron [6]
(4) Kenseth, Keselowski [5]
(5) Bell, Custer, Hamlin, McDowell, Ty Dillon [4]

Probably gonna try to get some Bowyer too. Not sure if for cash or not. Custers been pretty bad since we rode him into the ground last month when we were playing him for the track history, so maybe use McDowell? $600 cheaper too.

There's a bunch of people who just play the rotogrinders optimal. I made a list of them and just play their h2h if I think the optimal isn't optimal. Feel like it's an advantage if you know what the person is playing and you got a different lineup.

One of the DFS bread & butter plays imo. Bonus points if you can get two of them in a 3-man and get 2.7x return 60% of the time instead of 1.8x.

here's a breakdown of point distribution in the optimal lineup at indianapolis



Most of the points come from the finishing position. FL pts and LL very low relative.

This track is the most like Pocono (even tho there's four corners not 3). Here's what happens there

I've been looking at what % of the maximum points in a given category you need to win. i.e., if you had the top 6 drivers you'd get 246 fpts, if you led every lap & had every fast lap w/ no cautions you'd get 90 fpts @ a 160 lap track.

Depending on if you include Pocono the winning score has averaged 350-360 or ~7x. Since ~2/3 are coming from finish pts that implies 230-235 finishing pts or 93-95% of the max. Even if we use 90% that's only 25 spots off the optimal finishing position we can afford to give up. Only 10-15% of optimal fpts are coming from dominator categories or 35-50 on average (again depending on Pocono inclusion). So need less than half the dominator pts here in the optimal typically. See a shift between dominator pts & finishing pts required based on race length

Comp caution after lap 12 & Hamlin's got the 1 stall. Even given all that I'll still end up playing a ton of Logano I think.

I need to think about Harvick or Hamlin. I have Harvick as more points, but only ~3 or so different. Hamlin is $900 cheaper and opens more options. With Harvick I'm basically stuck with Corey LaJoie in my team which isn't bad. Hamlin lets me get up to Custer or McDowell.

I'm guessing the chalk lineup will be: Logano/Harvick/Erik Jones/Bowyer/Custer/Preece

I'm leaning towards

(1) Preece/Custer or McDowell/Bowyer/Blaney/Hamlin/Logano
(2) PReece/LaJoie/Bowyer/Blaney/Harvick/Logano

Harvick/LaJoie vs. Hamlin/Custer or McDowell

FD I like Harvick more. LL there are worth less. Jones is better there IMO.

I think this might be another super chalky lineup

Hamlin/Harvick/Jones/Logano/McDowell/Preece

Not sure if having all three of Logano/Harvick/Hamlin is smart. Not enough laps led that they all get there.

I really think Blaney has a chance to win this. Took some of him at 11/1. Thought the same thing last week and it didn't pan out, but I'm sure this time will be different and not the same exact thing.

This is my top to win bet

Newman > Custer, Beuscher, Stenhouse +235 Group F/6 depending on site

Newman is good at these strategy tracks.

dropped a buck each on newman to win 110:1 and top3 25:1 in solidarity

Newman probably has 0% chance to win (i have 0.8% but i'm optimistic) but accidents could help him!

Competition caution is at lap 12. It's a weird spot. If people pit there they will have enough fuel to get to the end of the stage, so you should see a lot of people pit. What I'm worried about is Hamlin has shown he won't pit when everyone else does. If he stays out then Logano is useless for DFS. 12 laps led is only 3 points.

Add in that I have Logano as 14th best driver in the last 5 races (12th in last 10) and 13th on flat this year, I'm think I'm going to make the brave stand and fade the projected chalkiest driver in cash and tournaments.

Logano's been bad at Pocono too if that's our best comp. Saw the caution @ 12 last night & laps led aren't that important to begin with. If he's really gonna be 50%+ owned I'll be fading him in tournaments at least.

F1 was pretty crazy today, lots of car issues and a penalty at the end cost Hamilton a podium. Mercedes was much faster than everyone and would've had a massive 1-2 lead if not for cautions. Ferrari was pretty slow & Le Clerc was very fortunate to get second imo.

f1 is fun. someone published a book on how they analyzed f1 data. it's 400+ pages tho, maybe one day i'll read it and try it. there's a lot more data released to the public with f1 than nascar.

I'm thinking of doing the Preece/Custer/Bowyer/Blaney/Hamlin/Logano
for cash

and Harvick/Blaney/Jones/Bowyer/Custer/Preece for single entry. I wish the competition caution didn't exist or was much later. That's the main thing giving me pause.

Fading Jones in cash? My first was the chalky Hamlin/Harvick/Jones/Logano/McDowell/Preece, but might swap Logano for Bowyer in a lot of spots.

yea my obsession with Blaney is gonna screw me. Just switched every cash to my SE lineup with Harvick/Jones.

FD is pretty easy IMO

Harvick/Jones/Bowyer/Bell/Custer

I think a lot of people will go that Harvick/Hamlin too. Probably will win but I dunno. I feel like either Harvick or Hamlin gets the points. I thought the same thing on Sunday and cost myself a lot of money. Cashed, but could have cashed way more. Big difference is just less PD for both compared to Sunday.

I feel like there's also negative correlation with Hamlin/Logano vs. Harvick/Logano where both can succeed.

I think I have 80% blaney in DK gpps. Sunday was crazy with the inversion putting them at 19/20. Could see both of them getting there again but the combo will still probably be overowned in gpps even if I avoid adding Logano which will be extra popular & negatively correlated. It was my top lineup by average points w/o correlation but there's several that are very close.

Not playing much on FD today though somehow the golf there has turned around from -100% on day1 to +30% or so currently. Guess it helps to have Bryson in cash and not multi-enter GPPs

I'm surprised at all the Denny wins this easily talk. His to win odds have passed harvicks in the last hour yet harvicks h2h line is -135. I'm thinking hamlin's ownership is going to be ridiculous

I ended up full fade of.hamlin, Logano, bell on dk.

Looks like DK moved lock again at last second? Gonna be no overlay in the $400 now I think. Had no logano/bell in my top 20 but ended up throwing another 30 in the $12 and have some there.

Think Hamlin will be >40% owned? I have some but should be underweight trying to avoid too many dupes.

wtf is harvick doing

lol 7 cars involved in an accident on pit road

of course preece is one of them

some pit guy may have died there

it looks like blaneys pit guy who almost died.

and blaneys car gets hit of course.

i wonder how they're going to re-order people

custer involved too

Accident on pit road takes out 50% of my cash team lol

Pit road accident what a disaster. Was originally off truex and pivoted some to him for ownership. 60% of my uniques had 1-2 of Preece/Lajoie/Truex