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Old 06-28-2020, 07:56 PM   #676
critiakx2
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

McDowell + Kyle killed all my gpp lineups. Winning most of the 5x and 10x cash right now too and don't have one tournament lineup that's better than it. Too bad we can confirm the field plays even worse than we do every week otherwise maybe we could find a way to quit paying 10-15% rake for this high-variance disaster.
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Old 06-28-2020, 08:29 PM   #677
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

yea i'm stupid with kyle. i had him ranked 5th but i know he does much better with practice so i gave his projection a bump because of that

should have projected it down because he's trash.

might win the $1500 grand marshall. hovering between 1st-3rd

probably 2nd because someone has hamlin/harvick vs my hamlin/blaney. wanted the first but it meant including quin hoff (which he has)
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Old 06-28-2020, 08:46 PM   #678
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

blaney messing his car up with KB hurt. only 2 point diff from 4th to 2nd ($3800 extra), but will take it. slightly up on the day now! eckes doesn't crash and we crush today

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Old 06-28-2020, 08:55 PM   #679
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

wow crushed FD too. always forget about there.

Rankings chart vs. Bookmaker

If I didn't adjust KB
9-3 +5.89

After Adjusting KB:
8-4 +3.84
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Old 06-28-2020, 08:56 PM   #680
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Nice win. I was able to scoop up a couple H2Hs based on the projections. I have absolutely crushed those. Got Bowyer > Logano +130 and Bowyer > Bowman -120
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Old 06-28-2020, 08:58 PM   #681
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Broke even on DK but won a little with H2H bets. I had no idea Mcdowell was doing so well this season until yesterday. Sorry for mushing him.
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Old 06-28-2020, 09:04 PM   #682
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I think I'm going to stop trucks until practice comes back

It seems to be a major leak in DFS and h2h betting. I don't think the model is bad but the big issue is there's 40 trucks now and some of them are so horrible. They're driving 10 mph slower than everyone and causing accidents. Most of these people wouldn't qualify if it was a real race.



McDowell was crushing post-covid and at super cheap salary. Under 6k every week.

Big thing for today was going Hamlin/Ty over Truex/Bowman. Initially had Hamlin/LaJoie which would have scored more, but no big difference in h2hs. Only 1.5 points between the LaJoie and Ty.
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Old 06-28-2020, 10:00 PM   #683
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Played McDowell on FD and lost there too. Though Bowman going to the back would matter which was a mistake for cash & gpps. Overweight Kyle starting @ 19th & 25% ownership isn't be a mistake imo but ended up killing me in gpps.

Alternative is to enter more cash/single entry. Cash lineup did 295pts on DK & outperformed all my gpp lineups.
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Old 06-28-2020, 10:15 PM   #684
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

So much rake in DFS. I ended up busting my first deposit on there, smh.
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Old 06-28-2020, 11:12 PM   #685
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Looking to next week. We are at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Aka a more boring version of Pocono. Same exact type of track (long and flat). The same exact people will be good here (Harvick, Hamlin, Keselowski, Blaney, Logano, KB, Truex are my top 7 sans starting position when I ran the model).

Only big difference between Pocono and IMS is it's harder to pass at IMS. There's about 12% less passes between the two and the trend at IMS has been less passing in the last couple of years.

There's more accidents at ISM due to the track not being as wide.

Same thing you saw tho with pitting and fuel mileage. Pit crews will be important here (and Harvick has the best one in NASCAR). Hamlin and Harvick really put themselves in a position to win both of these races with their pit strategy. You could see at the end Truex and Keselowski were just staying out hoping there would be a caution because they messed up when to pit.

XFinity one small change - there will be practice and qualifying. That should give us an advantage. Pre-Covid we did better with practice and my model doesn't have to rely heavily on track history which a lot of people in xfinity don't have. Practice is going to give a huge advantage to the top drivers as they have the money and funds to process and analyze the data to make changes to their cars. You're going to see a skill gap between the big sponsored drivers and others making it hard to find value.

No trucks luckily.
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Old 06-29-2020, 12:35 AM   #686
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I have IMS at 3rd overall for crashes last 5 years at 11 DNF/race behind only Talladega (12.3 before this year's debacle) and Daytona (14.1) vs. average of 5.4 DNF. Last 10 it's still 3rd overall but much closer to the pack at 7.6 vs. 6.6 avg. Skewed by 2017 when nearly half the field DNF.

Our favorite way to lose money Kyle Busch is coming off 2/3 DNF after b2b wins.
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Old 06-30-2020, 11:19 AM   #687
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

For Xfinity they're going to run the Indianapolis Road Course which is why they have practice. There's not many road course races in general. Lot of stopping and turning, etc. Kind of like a much slower formula 1.

If Allmendinger is in the entry list auto lock. He specializes in these types of courses.

Briscoe and Cindric have been really good on road courses too.

They might also bring in road course ringers like James Davison or Justin Marks could unretire just to race this track. There's a subset of guys who only come out for these courses.
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Old 06-30-2020, 12:52 PM   #688
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Allmendinger is in, Marks isn't. Mike Wallace is coming out of retirement to race at 60 tho which is crazy.

One thing to look out for - Myatt Snider and that #93 car used to be owned by RSS Racing. (Ryan Sieg owns it). Sieg has been doing bad this year so they gave the car to Reaume Brothers Racing to run it for the rest of the year. This is bad for Myatt. They're really underfunded and start and park a lot of races. I think they could be good but they just have no money. They focus on trucks and they're basically in last every race (Jesse Iwuji, Angela Ruch, Josh Bilicki are their main drivers).

He's been really good value all season and you could see a lot of people still on him without knowing this. I'm hoping some xfin lines will show up soon to fade him. Hard to tell if his downfall will be after this week tho.
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Old 07-01-2020, 05:56 PM   #689
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Road races are more fun to watch imo. Excited for F1 to return should be way more profitable without DFS.

Big news with Lajoie now running a Trump 2020 car. Wonder if he'll get a slight ownership bump on DK for it. Doesn't seem like the greatest guy to sponsor given he's more likely to crash than win most weeks, though I've been playing him for place diff a lot lately. Also maybe not a good sign for the Donald if he needs to remind Nascar fans to vote?
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Old 07-02-2020, 06:59 PM   #690
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

this draw is amazing

harvick 11
blaney 12
lajoie 31
jones 23
bell 35
hamlin 6
logano on the pole

line makes itself

took some logano 10/1 and harvick +650 to win
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Old 07-02-2020, 07:51 PM   #691
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Golf was so tilting I took a run at DK pts for Sunday even though pricing isn't out.

Have Harvick #1 in mid-40s. Then Blaney/Hamlin/Logano/Kesel high-30s. Jones/Chase/Bowyer/Bell mid-30s. Truex/Preece/autofade low-30s. Also think Lajoie/Custer/McDowell/Chastain could be place diff options from the back.
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Old 07-02-2020, 08:33 PM   #692
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

based on starting. this is just finishing place. doesn't include things like laps led/fastest.



there's still a golf day 2 don't worry. plenty of time for dechambeau and redman to hit -20
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Old 07-02-2020, 10:26 PM   #693
critiakx2
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Golf day 1 has been bad most weeks since the restart but day 2 & 3 have been solid. Hopefully that trend holds.

My placement ranks are pretty similar though I'm a bit higher on Bell & Chase and lower on Kyle & Kenseth
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Old 07-03-2020, 10:45 AM   #694
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I was looking thru the drivers in xfinity and three guys stand out to me

Brandon Gdovic
Preston Pardus
Jade Buford

all three are IMSA or SCAA racers and have a lot of experience on road courses. Gdovic should be good for cash starting last. Gonna have some of the other 2 in tournaments. More Buford.

I took Gdovic 150/1 and Field (which includes other 2) 50/1 on betonline.
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Old 07-03-2020, 02:22 PM   #695
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

myatt snider's career under reamule racing is going great. he's been in the shop for almost the entire practice 1 due to issues

Pardus is dominating practice 1. Might be chalk since he's 4.9k
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Old 07-03-2020, 04:47 PM   #696
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Finally some practice data to look at! Need to ground myself with some historical NXS practice results but surprised at first glance just how big the gap is between groups of drivers. Only the top 5 were within 1.5% of top speed which doesn't seem good for a 60 lap race. Go down another 1.5% (to 97% of top) and you're already down to Buford at 17. Not sure if this implieds >half the field is slow enough to get lapped multiple times.

Bilicki was 8th (though closer in speed to 12th than 7th) in practice, and starting 36, but he's on that Reaume team you called out earlier.

Pardus $4,900 & 10th in practice looks good starting at 19th. What do you think about Leicht? Seems like he's in that 21-26 pack in practice but has been running last pretty much all year. If he's positive place diff he should hit value but I'm worried starting at 28 that he could just run 35th again and put up a 0.
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Old 07-03-2020, 04:49 PM   #697
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

part of it is the road course. most of these guys have little to no experience on them.

cindric, allmendinger, and briscoe are good

clements has decent history over a good sample size

pardus seems like a trap at only 4.9k

gdovic starting last should be good

Leicht probably won't race. He rarely does. Usually starts + parks. There's rumors about his team pulling out of xfinity because they're broke
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Old 07-03-2020, 06:39 PM   #698
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Jimmie Johnson positive for COVID. Hope they take the golf approach and just ban him for a couple weeks and ignore any requests to shut down.
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Old 07-03-2020, 06:55 PM   #699
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Good to know on Leicht. Clements starting 21 & 6th in practice looks good for $8700.

Kind of difficult to fit the top 3 if you're not playing Pardus.

JJ out with covid for sunday now
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Old 07-03-2020, 07:16 PM   #700
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Actually it looks like Leicht got a late sponsor this week so he should race.

https://www.driveraverages.com/nasca...php?drv_id=163

he has decent finishes at road courses

the one race briscoe won was due to pitting so i'm thinking

Allmendinger/Cindric/Labbe/Clements/Pardus/Leicht ?
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