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Old 06-21-2020, 02:39 PM   #576
cockandbull
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Went RB, CE, BG, DH, TH and DS for tournaments.

Looks like a split
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Old 06-21-2020, 02:46 PM   #577
critiakx2
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Fading Kyle/Harvick/Truex? I was high on Custer & Bubba from the middle, should probably pare them down
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Old 06-21-2020, 02:48 PM   #578
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

yea. i usually love truex but not here. now he will probably lead 200 laps. Harvick SSS is bad. Kyle I'm done with him after last week. Something is wrong with his car.

Here's the settings I used for FD. Cared less about it there.

Aric, Kurt, Blaney, Logano, Elliott < Top (1-2)
Bell, Stenhouse, Austin Dillon, Newman, Preece << Middle (0-2)
Gase, Yeley, Gaughan, Suarez, LaJoie, BH, Gaulding, Timmy, Poole (3-4)

ended up with this dist there

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Old 06-21-2020, 03:11 PM   #579
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

high stakes cash is so much easier than low stakes

all my $20 and under are basically 1v1 on FD. My Gase vs. Hill

Here's the type of h2hs i get in $250 and $100





can't wait to lose these when no one crashes
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Old 06-21-2020, 03:14 PM   #580
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

how am i going to dodge this

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Old 06-21-2020, 03:23 PM   #581
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

134/150 uniques in the 250k to first.

lets get it boys
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Old 06-21-2020, 03:41 PM   #582
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Have a $500 H2H with a 4v4: Bell/Suarez/Ty/JJ vs. Chase/Logano/Blaney/Aric. Wish I had known would've played Chase/Logano & two guys from back for less variance I think. I'm high on all those guys in tournaments so they probably won't crash and shake out in a way I lose the H2H and all tourneys.

In the $20 have 41/50 unique $20 w/ top one duped 8 times. Maybe should've used chalkier lineups for 5-10k entry gpps? Looks like ~1/2 the field is duped or blank so that's pretty good. 15% is duped >10x hopefully we avoid one of those trains hitting. Seems like the expected ROI would be much higher here than golf if you can avoid the dupe trains
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Old 06-21-2020, 03:58 PM   #583
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

90% unique in a tournament with 50% dupes is pretty savage. I'm sure the 50% of the field that is unique has a lot of bad construction/plays in there too.

I think my favorite is this 6-man WTA. One name I recognize and we're both on Bell/Gaughan/Suarez/Dillon/JJ; I have Gase vs. his Preece which I had very close. We're the only two who played any of those 7 drivers though, everyone else in the field is on Kyle/Harvick/Truex/Hamlin/Reddick, etc.
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Old 06-21-2020, 05:36 PM   #584
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Sounds like it's gonna get postponed until tomorrow so could be some good secondary slates too
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Old 06-22-2020, 02:53 AM   #585
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
high stakes cash is so much easier than low stakes

all my $20 and under are basically 1v1 on FD. My Gase vs. Hill

Here's the type of h2hs i get in $250 and $100





can't wait to lose these when no one crashes
don't do nascar dfs because don't know enough enough other than cars go brr

but something i found in all sports is the lower stakes are the true grinders who put in time and effort and so long as you avoid the professionals (and they avoid you) the higher you go up the stake ladder the more button clicking degens you run into

My win rate in the $1-$10 range is about break even at 58%
my win rate in the $25-$50 range about 62%
my win rate for $100+ h2hs is 73% (not a typo)
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Old 06-22-2020, 09:23 AM   #586
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

That's really interesting, rickroll. On Twitter people have been complaining about a user inviting everyone to Nascar H2Hs -- I took his invite last week and we played the exact same lineup. Assuming everyone who's decent quits him after one week he's only left over with degenerate volume I guess. But <$5 maybe he runs into more of the "semi pro" grinders who don't care/don't understand that they're just paying rake.
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Old 06-22-2020, 10:23 AM   #587
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

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Originally Posted by critiakx2 View Post
That's really interesting, rickroll. On Twitter people have been complaining about a user inviting everyone to Nascar H2Hs -- I took his invite last week and we played the exact same lineup. Assuming everyone who's decent quits him after one week he's only left over with degenerate volume I guess. But <$5 maybe he runs into more of the "semi pro" grinders who don't care/don't understand that they're just paying rake.
yeah, that's the primary reason why i'm afraid to expand to other sites i've built my street rep on the yahoo streets and my name "Adam" is taken at other sites so only degens take my action these days and if i started posting h2hs at other sites they'd be scooped by good players and you can't beat the rake against competent people

i used to regularly sit Alex Baker for $10 h2hs for the lols to "beat the best" and he finally blocked me, shocked the "best in the world" would care about a $10 hit but it did allow for a fun screenshot

not saying he's not good at dfs, he is, he's just not a great cash game player on yahoo

frankly, the only reason why i still offer the lower h2hs is because i don't want the people who have a good shot at beating me sitting me for higher amounts

not a single h2h taker last pga match but again for further evidence

Last edited by rickroll; 06-22-2020 at 10:31 AM.
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Old 06-22-2020, 03:15 PM   #588
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I saw an analysis on one site (could be stale data usually is) that the field wasn't even beating DK pricing for fantasy golf, and low stakes contests had higher scores on average than high stakes contests. Definitely is not the case for football/baseball/basketball. Still probably adverse selection for H2H.

Haven't played much H2H on Yahoo but have done well in the general cash games and won the NFL 'Yahoo Cup' full-year freeroll last year. Noticed a handful of other names in the top 10-20 but guess in general most aren't spending the time on Yahoo. For golf the min salary is lower than other sites (10% of cap vs. 12%) which usually leads me to take more of the top-end guys, but haven't done as well on Yahoo golf relative to the other sports.
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Old 06-22-2020, 03:27 PM   #589
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

bell +15 spots in 3 laps

wtf is he doing

9th (+26 spots) after 5 laps
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Old 06-22-2020, 03:43 PM   #590
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Have a bad feeling it's gonna run clean for a while then get shortened by rain and we're gonna lose to the guys who played everyone from the front & mid. Suarez/Gaughan/Yeley/Gase pretty far back at the start.
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Old 06-22-2020, 03:55 PM   #591
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Quote:
Originally Posted by critiakx2 View Post
I saw an analysis on one site (could be stale data usually is) that the field wasn't even beating DK pricing for fantasy golf, and low stakes contests had higher scores on average than high stakes contests. Definitely is not the case for football/baseball/basketball. Still probably adverse selection for H2H.

Haven't played much H2H on Yahoo but have done well in the general cash games and won the NFL 'Yahoo Cup' full-year freeroll last year. Noticed a handful of other names in the top 10-20 but guess in general most aren't spending the time on Yahoo. For golf the min salary is lower than other sites (10% of cap vs. 12%) which usually leads me to take more of the top-end guys, but haven't done as well on Yahoo golf relative to the other sports.
oh sick, nice score, i finished 352
was #1 in basketball last year until the final week where I guessed the wrong min priced g leaguer to get 40 minutes today and fell to a pretty demoralizing 7th or so which is like $10k to $100 so not an insignificant drop, 31st in bball this year if it resumes and also top 50 in soccer too so hoping to finally win one after a bunch of close finishes

it was actually these cups that convinced me to start modeling for dfs, i was doing horribly just picking plays i thought were good and that didn't sit well with me because I've always viewed my fantasy/sports knowledge as fairly upper tier so i began to do some rudimentary things in excel to really start getting a good concept and things just expanded from there after i both saw success and really enjoyed it

100% agree the more predictable sports in basketball/baseball/football higher dollar 50/50s are definitely more competive because you're mostly going up against moklovin and crew and for that reason i strictly avoid those contests in those sports unless there's some overlay to be had

but having said that moklovin isn't dumb enough to sit you in h2h if he doesn't view you as a fish so in h2hs you get a much weaker field if you've earned the respect or can block all the top guys (another neat yahoo feature that surely helped me move up but now definitely hurts me in booking action)

but things like golf/soccer/hockey where a lot of the top pros don't venture have much weaker fields to begin with, which is why i suspect my win rate in the higher dollar 50/50s is more like my h2hs in scaling

also, fwiw, yahoo's smaller and lower stakes pools means there isn't much volume, on any night I'm lucky to have more than 3 h2hs at $109 or higher and often go unclicked so it's wholly possible it's just a smaller sample size variance

/non nascar derail
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Old 06-22-2020, 04:18 PM   #592
CodythePATRIOT
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Hamlin done
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Old 06-22-2020, 04:19 PM   #593
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

rain and jj yeley for the garage for mechanical issues

good game

hamlin's fine. just a popped tire he can get back on the lead lap tomorrow when it restarts
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Old 06-22-2020, 04:59 PM   #594
critiakx2
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

At least the rain happened at lap 57 instead of 99 or whenever it becomes official. Sounds like they could restart 12 ET tomorrow.
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Old 06-22-2020, 06:36 PM   #595
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

yeley's back. big one coming in stage 3. lets get this

if blaney stays out of it and one of my other top guys could be good.

taking out bell/preece would be optimal
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Old 06-22-2020, 06:49 PM   #596
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

welp there goes chase and austin

still got blaney, logano, kurt, keselowski, and hamlin left!

cash looking better after taking chase out. he was ~30% owned
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Old 06-22-2020, 07:00 PM   #597
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

doesn't help when the back guys wreck

gase and brennan poole
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Old 06-22-2020, 07:06 PM   #598
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Losing Gase hurts, Yeley like 11 laps back but guess still being in it will make a little difference. Don't think anyone had much of Kenseth
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Old 06-22-2020, 07:26 PM   #599
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Big penalty for Bell, he's a lap down now. Bubba grabbed the lead before needing to refuel, sounds like a lot of others are a few laps short on fuel though too
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Old 06-22-2020, 07:36 PM   #600
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

preece 4 laps short of gas
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