Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 06-18-2020, 06:59 PM   #551
critiakx2
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 315
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Truex on the pole @ Talladega. Logano 9th, Chase 11th. I'm sure DK will price up Bell @ 35th again.
critiakx2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2020, 09:40 PM   #552
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,394
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

yea he's $9700 crazy

bj super cheap
gaughan 7.6k is annoying
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-18-2020, 10:49 PM   #553
critiakx2
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 315
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

BJ priced like he's 40% to DNF. Could be accurate given recent performance.

My initial DNF research shows Talladega pretty close to Daytona, but some recent years that have run cleaner than Daytona ever does + 40hp and drag reduction in package probably decreases it. Seems like the optimals here recent years have looked like the Daytona lineup you posted earlier.

Since 2010, average # who DNF:
Total: 6.6, Daytona: 12.2, Talladega: 11.0

Since 2016, average DNF:
Total: 5.4, Daytona: 14.1, Talladega: 12.3

Skewed by a 26 DNF in 2017 @ Talladega
critiakx2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2020, 03:55 PM   #554
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,394
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

here's the same chart for xfin last ten years



not sure how much to put into this without qualifying

pole here has a high median but look at how much its skewed down. really boom or bust
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2020, 04:18 PM   #555
critiakx2
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 315
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

For xfinity I was thinking all guys from the back or maybe one of Briscoe/Allgaier/Cindric and guys from the back
critiakx2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2020, 05:43 PM   #556
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,394
Re: Nascar 2020 Season



everyone is too sharp. $10 gpp

i'm big on Annett in the GPP so lets do it
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2020, 07:32 PM   #557
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,394
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

gotta love it when the accident involves all the guys in the back
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2020, 07:39 PM   #558
critiakx2
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 315
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I'm fully dead now with Garrett down. Only played 5 lineups at least I guess
critiakx2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2020, 07:56 PM   #559
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,394
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

lol i'm down to 2 guys after that

c'mon massey and allmindinger

that last accident took out 90% of the field
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2020, 08:12 PM   #560
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,394
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

i faded snider and cashing everything in cash now with 3 cars not crashed.

hill somehow survived.

they should just make this race 20 laps instead of 113. first 90 so boring
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2020, 08:20 PM   #561
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,394
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

won a whole $79. the accident at the end put me out of the money by 0.75 points in the $1060. swing city

lol @ pole sitter winning. should have trusted my chart and went for the high variance
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2020, 11:23 PM   #562
critiakx2
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 315
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Only lost $60 which is much better than the -100% ($400) on this trash UFC card I shouldn't have played.
critiakx2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2020, 01:05 AM   #563
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,394
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I was looking at some super speedway data and one thing I found interesting: mid-race position is actually a better predictor of DK points than starting position.

people at the front in the mid-race are more likely to score less points. So when we are considering starting position for tomorrow we should also consider who tends to move up from the back a lot.

I looked historically through SS and other types of tracks and I'm a little worried about these guys:

Christopher Bell. Everyone is going to play him in cash but he tends to try and get to the front fast. I'd play him in cash just because everyone will so game theory, but he could be a good tournament fade/under weight options.

Michael McDowell - same. He likes racing in the front and tries to move up.

Ricky Stenhouse - I'm personally going to have a lot of him in tournaments, but he's always moving up.

Bubba Wallace

William Byron

are two others
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2020, 01:47 AM   #564
critiakx2
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 315
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Bell/Gaughan/Ty/Preece looked good to me for cash options. Not exactly sure where I wanna go from there though. For tournaments going to try and gauge ownership tomorrow morning and pivot to other guys in the back. If we're chasing PD points from crashes a couple starting pts or slightly better car shouldn't matter too much -- closer to a bi-modal distribution for player points.

Seems like the touts are on Truex to crash tomorrow but haven't seen the prop anywhere. Will prob play him in some tournaments hoping for another Hayley-esque performance
critiakx2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2020, 09:31 AM   #565
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,394
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2020, 09:50 AM   #566
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,394
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

btw one negative with truex is he's horrible at talladega. he's crashed every time.

it's kind of weird because he's ok at daytona and talladega is a wider track.

last time he was on the pole here ended up 40th
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2020, 12:08 PM   #567
erroneous
adept
 
erroneous's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,134
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Quote:
Originally Posted by critiakx2 View Post
Bell/Gaughan/Ty/Preece looked good to me for cash options.
That's where I'm leaning as well. Do you guys have a preference in the Gase/Smithley/Yeley/Houff/Hill area or am I best off closing my eyes and randomly picking one?
erroneous is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2020, 12:24 PM   #568
critiakx2
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 315
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Think I may end up with Chase/DiBene/Gaughan/Suarez/Ty/Bell for cash but you probably want to fade me, most things I post turn to mush it seems . I think I prefer Smithley and Hill if you're going for all guys from the back
critiakx2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2020, 12:58 PM   #569
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,394
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I think Hill will be higher owned and at worst he gets 40th which I think is still positive? Maybe 1 point.

Smithley has a higher floor but I think Hill has a better chance to avoid wrecks (after he crashed yesterday). Either one is fine IMO. They're both just going to ride around in the back. Personally I'm going Smithley and Hill. Smithley's main issue is his car. It could break before the "big one".

Talladega is more of a strategy race. You should be losing most of the race and then when the accidents happen you'll be in a good place. XFinity yesterday was different. All the back guys started riding in the middle and then when the big accident happened they all got destroyed.

CUP there's a big differential in equipment and skill between those 30-40 guys and everyone else. The 30-40 guys can't compete and that's actually what we want. People just riding around on the bottom of the track laps down. They'll pick up insane place differential when everyone crashes.

For tournaments probably want 1-2 guys up front who can win but cash all back guys and leave tons of salary on the table.
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2020, 01:08 PM   #570
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,394
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

one thing that worries me with smithleys car

he's in the 78. usually bj mcleod drives the 78 and gives the 77 to other drivers (he owns both).

the last time the 78 raced was atlanta and the clutch blew on the first lap. Instead of going back to his usual car, BJ decided to drive the 77 instead. Makes me think they got a sponsor for the 78, know its ****, and just putting someone in there to get the sponsor money. BJ McLeod is super cheap and it seems like something he would do.
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2020, 01:11 PM   #571
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,394
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

on second thought i'm not going smithley lol talked myself out of it

thinking on

Gase/Yeley/Suarez/Bell/Ty Dill/Gaughan for cash.

Might swap Hill for Dillon
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2020, 01:32 PM   #572
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,394
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

also one thing to look out for is denny hamlin.

he's starting high, but I looked through the Talladega data and by midrace he's almost always in the 30s. He intentionally drops to the back early on and makes his moves late. Could be a good candidate to avoid a wreck.
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2020, 01:53 PM   #573
critiakx2
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 315
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

How many guys from the middle 12-25 is too many? Seem to pivot there a lot for ownership but maybe a lot of them will be in the pack for a crash and need them to hang back.
critiakx2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2020, 02:00 PM   #574
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,394
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

probably 1-2 would be good.

i 150'd both FD and DK and what I did is I took 6 drivers, made combos of 2 (15 combos) and made 10 lineups with each with 3-4 back guys and 0-1 middle guys. set max ownership for those groups at 30% except gaughan put it at 50

middle good guys: stenhouse, newman, dillon, jones, aric
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2020, 02:32 PM   #575
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,394
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Tournament distribution



lets win that 250k. The ownership numbers were interesting yesterday. All back guys super owned vs. Daytona when it was the opposite. Daytona's more casual. I don't think a lot of people are getting hype for Talladega. So I went to try and build a lot of uniques. Probably crash and lose 3k (I had 53 tickets tho! That I got for only $321 investment). Had 62/100 uniques yesterday but only could get a couple in top 500.

One time.
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:33 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online