No idea why no one is passing. Somehow this Hamlin lineup is crushing. Mostly because Truex/Kes are in the back.

If Hamlin can get back on the lead lap soon this might be good.

Not a good one overall. -75% DK heavy on Kyle/Hamlin. +500% on FD but only played one lineup and much lower volume there. Looks like FD might have some overlay on PGA at least

Took a quick first pass for Sunday. Initially getting Harvick/Chase/Custer/McDowell with either Kesel/Jones or JJ/ADillon. Kesel and Jones both haven't been great here at first glance.

Only 267 laps looks like there's usually been 3+ leaders.

After tilting Wednesday I didn't look at Nascar for three days, but now I'm back for more punishment.

It's weird that chose Miami for this weekend. Usually it's the last race of the year because of the heat. In the past all the optimal lineups had 3 dominators, but there were no cup racers in them. It probably will be 2 this time. There's a max of 125.25 points over 167 laps (Cautions don't generate fastest laps).

Miami is a steep track with intemediate length similar to Darlington and Vegas. The track destroys tires like last week too.

I really don't like the xfinity slate and prices.

Myatt Snider is in the #93 like last week where he tricked us that he's in a worse car and then he ends up crushing.

For cash I want to use Dale Earnhardt Jr but he's really expensive. If I play him the only lineup I like has Finchum and Bacarella in it. Not worth the risk since I also want Briscoe. So I'm probably going to build around Briscoe/Clements/Alfredo/Gragson. Briscoe dominates these type of tracks, Clements is expensive but I think he has good place diff points, and Alfredo is in the car that I like when Myatt is in it. Gragson should get some fastest laps and I think he passes Burton early.

Colin Garrett is the scary option. He's starting last, so he's a great place differential play. His team (Hunt-Garrett Racing) doesn't race a lot. They save their money and put their car in races where they think they have a chance.

https://www.racing-reference.info/driver/Colin_Garrett

He seems to like this type of track. Last year he did Miami and Richmond (finishing 26/21) and this year he did Darlington finishing 37th after parking halfway through the race. I had him there and tilted bad.

Looks like last two might be Colin and BJ McLeod? or Caesar Bacarella. Bacarella crashes a lot so maybe not him. Doesn't really seems good but what can you do.


Another option is Haley with McLeod/Bacarella for the last 2. I think I might go that route just because Colin scares me. But if Haley has an issue you're pretty much dead whereas if Colin parks he'll just get a 0. Maybe I'll go Colin now. I have them both predicted for ~33 points.

Trucks. Same track, so same issues. 134 laps means 100.5 dominator points max. Slate is ruined again because the pro drivers want to show how great they are.

it's great too because you can actually fit in both Kyle and Chase in cash! Elliot is starting 16th and Kyle 2nd. So I'm sure they'll be 1/2 until Kyle gets a speeding penalty. Then Kyle will get back up to 1st and get another speeding penalty. You can pair them with Tate Fogleman who is only 4.7k and starting 29th.

Good people to round out the rest: Tanner Gray. I liked him last week too and he did good. Spencer Boyd and Austin Wayne Self. Both good truck racers. I'm guessing this is going to be a heavily duped lineup. If you want a little riskier go Ty Majeski over Self. This is another Rorhbaugh vs. Hill situation IMO. Majeski's starting 21st vs. 31st, so lower floor.

Cash is boring here. I really like tournaments. Going to build a lot of lineups fading Chase and/or Kyle and focusing on Austin Hill, Moffitt, Saunders, etc. The people I liked at Darlington who burned me when KB led 900 laps.

and cup rankings

maybe i'll actually follow these instead of trying to jam in 100% denny hamlin to be cute.



Haven't looked too in depth yet, but looks like Almirola is going to be a good play like last time we were at Darlington (when he was 100% owned starting last). Maybe some Ty Dillon. critical liked Reddick last time here too. I've been low on him all year but even tho I have him ranked 24th might have some. We've been riding the DiBenedetto train for a couple weeks. Might stay on.

And of course lock Harvick like every week. Will look deeper after todays races

My PPH doesn't have xfinity/trucks lines, so we have to wait for BM to post more. But here's what I like of what they have

Eanhardt Jr > Allgaier -115
Cindric > Gragson -120

I think Briscoe wins this but not as +200.

Lets keep losing KB as massive favorite in trucks
KB -125 to win

After way too much analysis I think I'm going to go Howard over McLeod. I have Howard slightly lower predicted but starting 9 spots lower. Still don't trust McLeod. Was starting to and then in cup last Sunday he just quits five minutes in.

Damn I did m projections and I have Kyle Busch with the same projection as Karvick, but at 1.7k cheaper.

There's not much value out there, so it might have to be a Kyle Busch week.

Value guys (ranked on best $/pt): Aric Almirola, Erik Jones, Austin Dillon, Cole Custer, Matt DiBenedetto, Reddick, Ty Dillon

Top guys (ranked): Kyle, Harvick, Chase, Truex, Byron, Keselowski

Need to think about how to construct the roster, but my "optimal" is Austin Dillon, Aric Almirola, Erik Jones, Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliot, Kyle Busch

I'll take another look after today's races but looks like we had similar thoughts--Almirola is the only one I didn't mention and guess I was looking at JJ too.

NXS I'm even less confident in but initially had: Briscoe/ Allagier/ Gragson/ Hayley /Garrett/Mcleod. Also had Myatt Snyder pretty high up but that was assuming the wrong car. Maybe it's too risky to assume that none of Hayley/Garret/BJ have issues and just taking one is less of a headache (and we can pretend it's a higher median)?

chase briscoe's car falls apart before the race even starts. +200 favorite to win the race.

nascar just cancelled talladega practice because of "how great the product is". aka we are too cheap and want to save money.

the product has been horrible without practice.

For no reason other than to allow it to be more random? Briscoe 90% owned in cash 55% in tournaments. Could still win some double ups and h2h I guess

briscoe might actually get back into this.

one negative: he only has 1 set of tires left and everyone else has 2

Kyle Busch has a penalty to start the truck race.

Scored from 2nd, starting last.

Getting penalties now before the race even starts.

This makes Austin Hill a much better play. Kyle will get the lap back at the caution, but Hill should get ~30-40 laps led. I think I'm going to be stupid and fade Kyle in cash now since most of his points came from laps led/fastest laps.

briscoe is in 1st after being 6 laps down to start the race.

he needs fuel tho. a caution will save him. can only last ~10 laps max.

Eckes and Moffit better plays now with more laps led available with KB at the back? Chase/Hill/Fogelman seem like the locks. Have Majeski pretty high but not sure I want him for cash.

crushed single entry and cash for +7k with Briscoe/Gragson/Clements/Alfredo/Garrett/Howard. Undid Wednesday. Wasn't even due to the ending. That actually cost 1st in the other gurney.

I wish I put it in the $180 spotter. I didn't at first and then it was full. Would have won another ~1k from that.

My model froze when re-running my trucks projections for some reason. Veins is out too. Gonna have to cancel it and re-run.

I still have KB scoring the most points, but I'm going to go

Chase (pd)/Hill (laps led/fl)/Moffitt/Fogleman/Poole/Self

in cash

Only putting in 20 to the big tournament. Think I'll put KB/Chase/Hill in a group and do max 2 and try to get a good spread of those

Didn't realize that caution helped out h2h bet since Cindric passed Gragson. 2-0 on that. No new trucks lines on BM so womp womp.

I have KB a couple pts above Chase still but bad pts/$ play. Think I'm gonna go underweight on him in tourneys too hoping a lot of lineups were already set and won't account for him starting at the back.

I'm going to go Crafton over Moffitt.

Also taking Chastain +2000 to win

kyle busch trouble on pit road, this is amazing.

i should have went with that chastain cash build. it was my second best and he's destroying

i always worry he's going to crash since he always crashes

wow so lucky to switch off moffitt. but chase elliot is done after that accident.

poole too.

good game

that dude ran into those yellow tubes full of sand you see on the highway and now the race is stopped. classic.

i was in 1st in the octane before that with eckes/crafton only chopping with 1 person. if crafton didn't have a horrible stop that would be amazing

Got killed on trucks bc of Moffitt should've listened to you. Still a good day from NXS though.

That Chastain second line would have crushed everything. Lost 1.1k but still a good day.

Chastain winning would have been great at 20/1.

Cup H2H:

Kyle > Truex -110
Jones > Byron -115
Bowyer > Byron -105
DiBenedetto > Reddick +115
Dillon > Bell -120