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Old 02-15-2020, 02:43 PM   #26
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Should be the last 4

Brandon Jones -115 over Michal Annett
Brandon Jones -115 over Myatt Snider
Riley Herbst -115 over Jeb Burton
Riley Herbst -115 over Brandon Jones
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Old 02-15-2020, 03:17 PM   #27
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Wow, is that really what happened? Good thing I wasn't watching it, it would've tilted me. Doubt it's worth it too put too much effort into these for them? Allgaier lines all moved to -170 now tho. I assume there's no longer much profit in those, I'm too late today :\. Tailed 3 picks for 100, forgot which ones. Think Cindric over Briscoe, Burton over Burton and Haley over Burton? Not sure, but gotta stick it through to the end in Nascar now. Too deep in! Lines are the same for the ourtights on unibt but too lazy to dep to take them. If I can even remember my info and it's not a limited account.

Also had 2 tennis bets around the same time as this yesterday and they ran horrible too. This Opelka guy at NY and thought "yeah, crushed the closing and he's owning" as he goes up a set. He has a dominant serve similar to Isner, but manages to get broken on the next first bp's each subsequent set, while failing like 5x to rebreak and loses 1-2, cool. Then had this Thompson guy, and was like "damn, got crushed by the closer but at least he's owning." Goes up a set and is 3-1, think somewhere like 30 to 1 fav in play, then goes 2-9 on the rest of the games from that point on to lose the match, almost 6-0'd last set. Oh wellz.

Sweating swongz live is the worst, I almost never watch any stuff anymore, except some mma and boxing matches from time to time as a fan, but do check the scores for some events, although I should probably cut that off too, better off not knowing about them.
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Old 02-15-2020, 04:12 PM   #28
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

how do you handicap this

had him a bunch in DFS

[tweet]1228773561348841472[tweet]
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Old 02-15-2020, 04:52 PM   #29
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

yea 4:47 on this video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UqGcz1p-Bo

rhodes was going back and forth for 1st/2nd and then got hit from behind and magically just took out the guys we had and no one else

Algaier, Cindric, and Herbst are now top 3 so probably will be taken out soon. Super speedways have tons of crashes so maybe just not bet those? who knows
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Old 02-15-2020, 04:56 PM   #30
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

lol literally 2 minutes later herbst gets hit from behind and crashes

f this sport
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Old 02-15-2020, 05:41 PM   #31
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

There goes Algaier too. I don't understand how we pick every single guy who crashes. Someone stopped in front of him to avoid a wreck and he just plows right into the back of him.

edit: and now cindric. RIP. never super speedways

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Old 02-15-2020, 06:34 PM   #32
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Yikes, had the two Cindric ones actually and Burton over Burton which I see won; so 2-1 overall, guess I was lucky the Allgaier lines all moved to -170.

So is leading the race before the end a risky choice then because of the likelihood of crashing at the top? Since like half of them do.

Is it be better to approach the races like Steven Bradbury (Australian guy who won a gold medal skating, even though he was much slower, by just waiting in the back for the leaders to crash) and just hang around the middle of the pack?
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Old 02-15-2020, 06:57 PM   #33
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Usually for DFS in the super speedway's all I do is stack a lot of people in last and hope there's crashes up front. Worked today (~+3k) and all week (up ~11k), but I figured for h2h they're all up front so shouldn't matter too much, but then this happens

H2H: 3-8 -6.2u on 12.65u risked (-49% ROI)
Total: 14-24 -13u on 42.65u risked (-30.48% ROI)

To Win: 0-2 -2u
YTD: 1-7 -2u on 8u risked (-25% ROI)

I guess if Allgaier survives crash then we cash almost everything and are in profit. Just bad luck. Clements was trying to avoid the accident, slowed down, and then Allgaier couldn't slow down fast enough and plowed into him.

This is what happened last time we tried Nascar. Every single person we picked crashed.

Do any websites offer a Guy will crash bet? We could dominate that.
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Old 02-16-2020, 12:26 AM   #34
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Here are my H2H for 500

Joey Logano -115 - (Joey Logano vrs Kevin Harvick)
Kyle Busch #18 -110 vs Martin Truex Jr #19
Denny Hamlin #11 -115 vs Kevin Harvick #4
Brad Keselowski #2 -110 vs Kevin Harvick #4
Denny Hamlin #11 -115 vs Martin Truex Jr #19
Kyle Busch #18 -115 vs Kevin Harvick #4
Erik Jones #20 +135 vs Chase Elliott #9
Erik Jones #20 +120 vs Ryan Blaney #12
Erik Jones #20 -115 vs Kyle Larson #42
Matt DiBenedetto #21 -115 vs William Byron #24
Matt DiBenedetto #21 -115 vs Alex Bowman #88
Matt DiBenedetto #21 -115 vs Ryan Newman #6
Kyle Busch #18 -115 vs Ryan Blaney #12
Ty Dillon #13 -115 vs Darrell Wallace Jr #43

To Win:
Matt DiBenedetto +2750
Corey Lajoie +17500
Chase Elliott +1400
Kyle Busch +1320
Denny Hamlin +900

Going on vacation for a while tomorrow morning. So hopefully when I come back around April we will be -30 units or so. See you then.
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Old 02-16-2020, 12:42 AM   #35
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Alright, we ran bad on trucks, we ran bad on xfinity. We are *due* a win here right?

Tailed all the H2Hs for a hundred except the first lol.

A month and a half vacation though? Wow, needs a TR.
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Old 02-17-2020, 05:45 PM   #36
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

couldn't really vacation until this was settled

we did it tho

an accident actually won us a bet as stenhouse sent Byron skidding across the infield into the wall. this is a first for us
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Old 02-17-2020, 07:10 PM   #37
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

we got kyle, hamlin, jones, and dibenedetto all in top 5 with ~58 laps to go

stenhouse is out of control and behind them, hopefully he'll wreck and take out everyone in the middle
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Old 02-17-2020, 07:36 PM   #38
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

stenhouse wrecks but takes out our erik jones with him, whoops
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Old 02-17-2020, 07:40 PM   #39
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

kyle busch's car lost power. how

never again with this sport
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Old 02-17-2020, 07:44 PM   #40
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

lol now kyle busch's car blows up simultaneously as a crash takes out dibenetto

sorry this is such a stupid sport. almost as bad as NHL
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Old 02-17-2020, 08:50 PM   #41
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

hamlin never in doubt
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Old 02-17-2020, 08:52 PM   #42
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

lol this was me 12 seconds before they crossed the finish line



then somehow end up in 16th because boyer got a couple spots when newman got in that horrible accident and hit lajoie. i hate this sport

lajoie got 8th, would have been nice to cash that 175/1

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Old 02-17-2020, 09:34 PM   #43
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Joey Logano -115 - (Joey Logano vrs Kevin Harvick) LOSS -1.15
Kyle Busch #18 -110 vs Martin Truex Jr #19 LOSS -1.1u
Denny Hamlin #11 -115 vs Kevin Harvick #4 WIN +1
Brad Keselowski #2 -110 vs Kevin Harvick #4 LOSS -1.1
Denny Hamlin #11 -115 vs Martin Truex Jr #19 WIN +1
Kyle Busch #18 -115 vs Kevin Harvick #4 LOSS -1.15
Erik Jones #20 +135 vs Chase Elliott #9 LOSS -1
Erik Jones #20 +120 vs Ryan Blaney #12 LOSS -1
Erik Jones #20 -115 vs Kyle Larson #42 LOSS -1.15
Matt DiBenedetto #21 -115 vs William Byron #24 WIN +1
Matt DiBenedetto #21 -115 vs Alex Bowman #88 WIN +1
Matt DiBenedetto #21 -115 vs Ryan Newman #6 LOSS -1.15
Kyle Busch #18 -115 vs Ryan Blaney #12 LOSS -1.15
Ty Dillon #13 -115 vs Darrell Wallace Jr #43 LOSS -1.15

Today: 4-10 -7.4u
Total: 8-34 -20.4u on 58.35u risked (-34.96% ROI)
lol


To Win: 1-4 +5u
YTD: 2-11 3u on 13u risked (23.07% ROI)

yea i'm done. its unsolvable. maybe non super speedways are easier to predict because they don't crash every lap. 19% win rate is very impressive. rip 7.5k
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Old 02-17-2020, 10:38 PM   #44
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Oh damn, totally forgot about it because of the delay. So a last second crash busted everything again?

Should be down, like 6.2u since I didn't tail the first one then. So about -1.2k overall at 100$ units

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
yea i'm done. its unsolvable. maybe non super speedways are easier to predict because they don't crash every lap. 19% win rate is very impressive. rip 7.5k
Probably just really shitty variance? Are you down 7.5k just in DFS entries or did you bet all of the H2Hs too at the local book?
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Old 02-17-2020, 10:46 PM   #45
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

oh no on DFS i'm actually up $28,171.80 on $100,697.50 bet since the season started so that is a nice 27.98% ROI

coulda been a cool extra 105k today but that accident

h2h betting down about 10k and up about $2500 on to win. shits unpoossible but i'll grind it for next month and see if i'm stupid and picking crashers on purpose

i think DFS is profitable but who knows, maybe running real good. hjaven't had any huge scores, just grinding


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Old 02-17-2020, 11:12 PM   #46
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Aha, I see. Should get into DFS entries too, always put it off since I didn't feel like learning a new thing. I mean it has to be easier than trying to find edges traditionally, I would think that the majority of the people don't put in too much work on their picks? Like mostly recs.

I assume it's like a poker tourney, and those are traditionally the softest games left.

You mentioned 175/1, so this was a 600$ entry and if stayed in the first you would have hit a 105k win? Did you still cash for anything or did you lose the buy in? I take it that it's not all or nothing with these, but a sort of payout like in a poker tournament where the top ~15% placers get paid?
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Old 02-17-2020, 11:48 PM   #47
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

this was the $10 888k tournament with ~105k people. usually pays top 15-20, very top heavy. ended up in 16th/105k but only got $1500 for that one entry

first was 150k but would have split it with 2 others. think it was 150k/90k/60k

optimal strat in super speedways is just play everyone in the back for cash due to the chaos of all the crashes and high scoring for place differentials. highest scorer was gaughan and he was super cheap. reason is he just coasts at the back and isn't trying to win. so when everyone started crashing he went from 39th or 40th to top 10 which is an insane amount of points. It was working good for Sorenson too until someone randomly slammed into him. Same with Justin Haley, etc. but even if they go out the start so low their floor is great.

vs. jimmie johnson who was there the whole race until the last couple of laps but ended up with -17.25 because he started so high up in 6th and ended up in 35th after a crash

for speedway tournaments i like to do 0-1 person from 0 to 12, 1-2 from 13-26 then 3-5 from others since you probably need the winner of the race (last year guy who won daytona single winner and he didn't have the race winner, but it's rare). this race i broke 36-40 into its own category and did 0-1 from that. i x'd out couple drivers from each group, set min/max, used my projections, and made a bunch of lineups.

one big advantage is people are scared to leave money on the table but most of my lineups in these races have ~15-20k leftover.

different strat for non super speedway races, need to pick better drives due to less crashes.
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Old 02-18-2020, 12:39 AM   #48
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

:O 105k people!

Would never have thought these were that popular. Can you get multiple entries per tournament, or buy in as much as you want, like picking lotto numbers? And then just changing your lineups around a bit to get more chances/ev.
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Old 02-21-2020, 07:45 PM   #49
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

up to 150 in most, some are 20 max

smaller fields have it capped at some %

i'm still on vacation but i couldn't sleep all night wondering how we can get our win % above 18%

then i bet these for trucks tonight

Sheldon Creed +145 over Austin Hill
Enfinger +110 over Crafton
Enfinger +170 over Sauter
Sheldon Creed -115 over Ben Rhodes
Zane Smith +160 over Tyler Ankrum
Zane Smith +100 over Raphael Lessard

To Win the STRAT 200: Kyle Busch -150

If you can find lines against Spencer Boyd or Josh Bilicki fade them. Bilicki is going to start and park, Boyd's car is way too slow.

We don't care about crashes this weekend, there shouldn't be many. Focus on laps led.
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Old 02-21-2020, 08:05 PM   #50
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Tailing, 100 on each again. Still have faith (up to maybe a 2.5k stoploss ), and without as high likelihood for crashes there should be a higher chance of doing well lolz.

Gotta get that quality sleep for a healthy lifestyle though, one of the key factors in avoiding memory/cognitive impairment and a bunch of disease as we get older.
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