damn what you doing

that lineup won ~10k on 3k in entries and 133.15% ROI in cash somehow

looks like h2h went +6.1u
to win went +4.4 (ford, even, harvick, and harvick group a won, all the other groups lost, jj/logano lost)
trucks went 2-4 -2.4, 0-1 -1.6u win
xfinity 1-4 -3.45 h2h, 0-2 -2u win

not as bad. trucks and xfinity dragged down the weekend.

nascar h2h has been making a crazy comeback the last 4 races. have to go through and add everything up to see how many we are down now

This race went well for as bad as trucks & xfinity were. Would've been even better if I had just gone with the lineup you posted and faded jones.

I ended up going 12-2 in h2hs, didn't even take any of the ones you posted lol. But I did base my picks off your rankings so I have to give props for that. Sadly my first day in DFS wasn't that great, bc of the h2hs I broke about even. Maybe up a little.

jones and bell were neck and neck but then jones got unlucky. not much you can do.

luckily most people who put in jones used the save $$ to put in keselowski bc track history instead of truex and thats where the real money came in.

logano destroyed the h2h's or they would have super killed like last week

on to wednesday. Martinsville is a crazy track. Super short.

Yup, you talked me off Keselowski for cash which flipped the day. Martinsville & Bristol two shortest tracks--guessing Bristol being steep makes it worse for tires/chassis?

Looking towards Martinsville

Track notes: Short flat track. Not steeply banked so you need to brake going through the corners. Harder to pass since there's only one line through the corner. This track will suck for people starting near the back. They can lose a lap really early on. Track position is important here. Since the track is short you can have green flags for 50+ laps easily. Long run speed is key. This is where practice would be useful, but there is none so we will have to lean heavily on 2020 green flag speed.

The 500 here is for 500 laps not miles. The track is only 0.526 miles long. Laps led and fastest laps points will be key since there's 375 of them.

Past crushers here: Hamlin, Keselowski, Truex, Kyle Busch
Second tier: Logano, Blaney

Might be fading Harvick for the first time in a while

Possible value guys: Kurt Busch, Clint Bowyer, Suarez, Almirola, Buescher, Byron, Preece, Newman

Really bad in the past: Jimmie Johnson, Kenseth, Erik Jones, Stenhouse

I'm hoping a lot of people are still on the Erik Jones and Harvick hype.

Was hoping Kyle Busch would fly under the radar due to the past couple of weeks but he ends up drawing the pole. Good job us.

We need a KB gets caught for speeding the pit prop. Talk about a lock.

wait i don't know how to watch TV

Blaney on the pole. Which might be worse. He was so low owned last race too and was gonna jump on him this time, but I don't think he has the ability to win it.

Blaney
Aric
Logano
Bowyer
Truex
Keselowski
Ky Busch
Bowman
Ku Busch
Harvick
Elliot
Hamlin
Jones
Reddick
Byron
Newman
Stenhouse
Nemecheck
DiBenedetto
Kenseth
JJ
A Dillon
Wallace
Buescher
LaJoie
Yeley
Custer
Preece
McDowell
Ty Dillon
Poole
Bell
Starr
Houff
Smithley
Gase
Suarez
Hill
Sorenson

Looks like Ky Busch season is on. I didn't want Harvickbut he's so far back. Gotta click that run model button, but I'm guessing lot of value on Austin Dillon, Custer, McDowell, Preece, Ty

rankings, which produced these losers

Kyle > Keselowski -115
Harvick > Elliot +115
Logano > Elliot -115
Logano > Hamlin +115
Logano > Blaney -130
Kurt Bursch > JJ +105
Bowyer > JJ +115
Newman > DiBenedetto -115
Custer > Bell +115
Logano > Truex +115
Blaney > Elliot +115
Harvick > Blaney -115
Bowman > Byron -130

I'm not too sure about that Harvick ranking. He's been bad when he's not in clean air, but his pit crew has been the best pit crew with the lowest times and variance in pit stop times. They've gained him a lot of spots and I believe he will have the best pit stall. Since he won Atlanta he can pick whatever stall he wants.

KB's to win price is too low. If you can get it +600 or better then I would. I'm only taking

Logano +900
Harvick +1100
Kurt Busch +2800

Probably be betting on even too if its less than -312

PSA on Austin Dillon. He might not race. Wife is due to give birth. If he doesn't race AJ Allmendinger will replace him.

I have no idea why Garrett Smithley is popping high. I looked at all the numbers and they seem fine. I think it's his limited experience at these type of tracks. I wouldn't pay attention to him.

BTW green flag speed is pretty useless at Martinsville since they're driving under 100 mph. I'd only look at ISM for a comparison.

Here is the last ISM race

Is Garrett Smithley ranked #17 an error? Seems odd.

Probably. I ran it a couple times and he kept coming up high. FWIW I have him predicted for only 16 DK points.

The issue I believe is he only raced here twice and actually finished the race every time. So there's a lot of variance on his projection and for some reason the median is in the 17s.

I personally X him out on everything and they never offer to win or h2h bets on him so it shouldn't matter for that.

The rankings don't include things like fastest laps, laps led, etc. It's basically where I think they'll finish.

I have Truex as the highest scoring at 68 pts, KB at 64, Hamlin , keselowski, and harvick in the high 50s. Blaney, elliot, and logano in the low 50s. then jj/bowyer/kurt in the low 40s

value guys: dibenedetto, buescher, a dillon (if he races), custer, preece all in the 30s

bell i have in the mid 30s but he's 8k

truex and blaney with the highest points per dollar

Any thoughts on Bowman? He's the only guy I have projected highly that you didn't mention. Thinking I might be overvaluing avg position vs. finishing position since I have Chase a tier higher too and they have the two biggest AvgPlace-AvgFinish gaps YTD. Also have a fairly even allocation for LL that isn't likely to actually happen and would take Bowman down a bit. It's also really easy to get to better drivers around him so maybe I'm talking myself off it already.

Have Erik Jones as a good pt/$ play based on YTD performance (low-mid 30s) but the course history is pretty scary. Prob gonna end up fading him.

Construction here is interesting with Truex and Kesel leading like 90% of the laps in recent victories. Fast laps more distributed though and a lot to points go around. Not sure how to approach for tourneys.

Getting a lot of Blaney/KyBusch/Truex/Keselowski lineups optimizing on proj DKpts but that definitely seems like overkill with the long laps led stretches here recently

Thinking 2-3 dominators max with at least one outside the group of four above (Harvick, Hamlin, Elliott, Logano, maybe Kurt/Bowyer)

-213 on BB to win 500 limits

I think Bowman is bad. With his price and starting position he needs to lead a lot or have fastest laps but probably not going to happen. Now he will lead 400+ laps, but I have 0 of him and have him scoring 24 points.

I don't like Keselowski either. I know he led 400 laps here last time but they're using a different package than last year. Both races had no passing because of it. The race should be more like 2018 with everything more spread out.

I looked historically through past Martinsville and the optimal all had 3 dominators, so I'll go for that.

Gonna go stupid tho with Kyle Busch/Blaney/Hamlin/DiBenedetto/Custer/Preece in cash and single entry.

Hamlin over Truex Jr. could be my Hill over rohrbaugh and cost me tons of money but I have Hamlin as better. I might swap out Custer to Austin or Ty Dillon, not sure. I want to play A Dillon but the kid thing scares me. If Allmendinger gets put in I'll probably try and play him. He's good at tracks where you need to brake.

I think the 4 dom with kese/truex/blaney/ky busch is ok. I just want Hamlin and can't afford 4 with Hamlin

Here's my pts vs. aggregate of pred ownership from other places



for tournaments i think i'm only gonna do 20 max and focus on hamlin/logano with KB. The payout for the big tournaments is eh and not so confident on this track.

maybe do like 5 KB/Hamlin/Blaney/xxx, 5 KB/Logano/Blaney/XXX, 5 KB/Hamlin/Logano/XXX, 5 Hamlin/Logano/not blaney or kb/xxx

here's martin truex explaining the difference here with 2019



the car package is why the past two races in 2019 were dominated by one person. no one could pass

Interesting stuff from Truex. Any reason your going away from him despite the highest pt proj? Also not going too big on MME today. They posted some decent-sized secondaries, the $10 has an awful payout structure but the $3 looks pretty good.

i have some negative correlation in my model between KB and truex. Most of their points come from LL or Fast Laps. Model prefers KB > Truex and I have Hamlin more consistent in LL/FL prediction.

Basically less variance for Hamlin

Just put in a bunch of h2h. Lines have moved but the found some good ones:

Almirola > Byron +115
DiBenedetto > Newman +185
Logano > Kese +115
Truex > Kese +130

Makes sense--starting 12th vs. 5th moves a decent chunk from LL to placement

Nothing like a cup race on a Wednesday.