lets go 30 laps left and we got

Sauter and Moffit 16/1 who are 3rd and 4th
Lessard 100/1 who is 7th

should have went with rohr, pretty close

at least we got the 2 head to heads

Not a great day a the trucks, will have to wait til tomorrow to chop the $100K with 25 ppl

stick with rohr and cash everything, should have trust the 1 point i had projected for him over hill

but that's why this stuff sucks when KB plays.

tomorrow might actually be hard to win. there's literally no value plays. maybe newman?

and if you want any of the lock people going to have to have one of the joey gase, quinn houff, brandon poole scrubs

it's much easier when there's practice and qualifying because then you can exploit bad salaries

this pre set starting position stuff sucks.

FD is easy because they don't know what they're doing with pricing. Just lock Jimmie/Wallace/Bowyer and then you got 25k to do whatever you want with the other two spots

Think of it the other way, if we were right that Rohr has an inherently higher crash % than Hill we got the EV despite having a slightly lower avg. projection and it not working out. Just need to up the reliability on that DNF model and Nascar will be solved.

Salaries do look tougher tomorrow at first glance--had put both Gase and Newman in my dummy lineup.

can't get any better than this jesus

Big ideas around tonight (probably tomorrow afternoon)

(1) Pricing is tough. I prefer this because then you don't end up in a lot of 1v1 or 2v2 situations and you'll have a lot of people just plowing optimizer lineups which don't really work here.

(2) JJ seems like you have to lock him but then that means you have to play either Quin Hoff, Corey LaJoie, Jose Gase, or Gray Gaulding. And Ty Dillon or Preece. Possibly even Newman too. Is it worth it? JJ was 2nd in green flag speed last race and is starting 40th. Or do you go with the cheaper Bowyer who always crashes? Or even Hamlin? Hamlin was super slow even running at the back. Can you do JJ plus Bowyer or Hamlin?

(3) Bowyer or Byron or both? It doesn't help that they're teammates and might be working together instead of against each other. Byron was 4th in green flag speed with no clean air. Bowman was half a mph faster with clean air most of the race. If you shove both in what happens if during the first pit someone takes only 2 tires and takes over like last race? This is the toughest decision you'll have to make.

(4) What do you do with the guys in the middle? Erik Jones was 6th in GFS and has been really great post corona shutdown. And he's only $7800. You can't jam in Truex, Chase, and Blaney this time if you want JJ.

(5) Harvick?? He was so slow last time and lucked into 6th at the end. Will he fix whatever is wrong? I was anti Harvick last race and probably will be this time too.

(6) Do we just forget KB exists because of JJ and his price?

Really tough, lets get some ideas out here.

Other to win bets:

Hendricks MS + 200

Bowman > Harvick -120
JJ > Hamlin -110
Logano > Hamlin -115
Blaney > Hamlin -130
Almirola > Reddick -105

For (2) How often does JJ get into the optimal and how much ownership will he get? Thinking you need around 6-7x from him or ~75-85 pts. If he gets 10th he probably gets the bottom of this range due to fastest laps. Lotta people to pass but maybe 35-40% likely to be in optimal? I'd prob fade at >50% ownership and overweight at <30%. He's hard to build around so some of the ownership he gets will be dead lineups, but also makes it more likely for us to get duped. Second path where JJ fails (or gets 50pts or whatever) seems more fun to build around too.

JJ + Bowyer/Hamlin leaves $6500-6600 left for 4 drivers...seems tough to make a good lineup that wouldn't be duped a bunch but maybe everyone else thinks that too?

If you use Preece you have $8800 avg for 5 drivers. Easy to jam in Truex, Chase, Blaney, Bowman/Byron, etc. just as long as you're okay fading JJ. Guessing a lot of optimizers are gonna spit out these lineups though

Sigs,

Just wanted to say thank you for making me take a look at NASCAR. Didn't realize the amount of brain dead props out there for decent limits at some outs.

2-0 last night thanks to those matches Sigs posted. Tonight I got.

Custer > Bell +110
Blaney > Hamlin -115
Johnson > Hamlin -115
Almirola > Reddick +100
Bowman > Busch -115

turns out no one is on JJ

only 1 other person beside me in the $1500 single entry

super low in cash

what did we miss

I'm at 40% JJ vs. 18% field in the $10 but didn't play him in cash. Interesting that DK keeps it locked while FD pushed lock back to tomorrow. The pricing is so different doubt we can get anything from DK own #s though

not good that bowman and byron gave up the lead so fast

lol @ gase, reddick, and smithley done already on the first lap. wish they took out houff too

**** no power steering for ty dillon lol

lol byron gets hit by another car on pit road getting out of his stall

i'm done with this stupid **** for real. until sunday

Pretty much everything that could go wrong is going wrong

Keselowski behind the wall with a broken tire

Ty Dillon has no power steering

Byron gets hit on pit road and his car is 2 seconds slower than everyone else

We bet against Kenseth on his first race back and he dominates and since then he's crashed and/or spun out in 3 races in a row.

This sport has infinite variance

Busch in full gladiator mode with a spike sticking out. Waiting to pounce.

lol bowman into the wall

every single person on DK cash today has had an issue except Gaulding and JJ

at least FD crushing

I guess Elliott is our only to win chance? Truex car is horrible. Byron's is held together by duct tape

Hopefully Elliot won't choke this again. O/U times we hear Jeff Gordon say clean air by the end of the race?

clean air is what all the touts were talking about too

wait until bristol when it doesn't matter

bubba wallace into the wall too. spoke too soon on FD. lol today is a disaster

Hamlin passes Blaney on the last lap for an extra kick in the nuts.

at least we got Chase to cancel out all the bets

what a lame race. these midweek ones have been brutal. backup cars, crappy inverted qualifying

I am loving NASCAR lol. Most fun sport I have ever watched. Broke about even today thanks to Chase Elliot. One day we are going to go on the sickest NASCAR run ever. I am pretty sure I am shifting all of my action into this sport for the time being. I used to be a bottom-feeder like Spanky but I am thankful that Sigley and others have shown me there is only one honorable way to win at sports.

Bristol lineup was released, couple things to look out for

(1) Similar track to Bristol: Darlington, Dover, Homestead Miami, Las Vegas. So we are going to look to stack people similar to Darlington two weeks ago.

(2) Harvick dominates these type of tracks and he's starting 8th. Truex and Logano are in the next tier and starting 5th and 3rd respectively. Keselowski is bad and he's on the pole. Clean air isn't as important here so 100% fade. No Kurt Busch season as he's starting 12th. Almirola is way too high.

(3) Good luck with value. Blaney is good but he's starting 4th so I'd fade. Looking in the 15-30 range the top drivers based on driver rating at these tracks:

Jimmie at 24th
Erik Jones but he's starting 15th
Bowyer 23rd
Newman 17th
Reddick 21st
Dillon 20th

everyone else is pretty horrible here in that range. Probably focus on JJ, Bowyer, Reddick, Dillon. Newman is starting kinda high.

Lower tier guys

Bell at 35th looks ok. His driver rating here is eh (high 50s). Comparable to Buescher, Ty Dillon, Custer, Wallace, Preece, Nemechek. Wallace's car always breaks, so I'd avoid.

Suarez at 37 always looks good but his car has had so much trouble this year.