Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old Today, 12:25 PM   #276
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,350
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

if you want KB fades I'm also going on

Moffitt +1600
Sauters +1600

Both are really good in trucks especially at Charlotte. In 2018 Sauters led most of the race and wouldn't let KB pass him.

also like

Moffitt > Chastain +100
Sauter > Chastain -110

Probably 100% KB in cash but thinking about fade in tournaments. Maybe like 20% KB with low salary cap and then 80% focused on moffitt/sauter. High variance throwing money away, but that is what we do best here.

Last edited by DefNotRsigley; Today at 12:32 PM.
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 12:40 PM   #277
CodythePATRIOT
grinder
 
CodythePATRIOT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 686
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

KB must really love to race, guy doesn’t take a day off.
CodythePATRIOT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 01:13 PM   #278
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,350
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

The put in a rule a couple years ago that he could only race in 5 Xfinity and 5 Trucks races per year. Last year he won all 5 truck races.

From a sport stand point I don't think it's an issue that he races in trucks. Most of the people there are part-timers and there's small prize pools. I think it's messed up that he races in Xfinity. Those are races where teams try to build money so they can build up the resume of newer drivers. Kind of messed up to take away their money like that.

Tommy Joe Martins is a lower tier grinder who has been trying to move up. He got in that huge accident yesterday, probably 100k in damage. Now he's going to have to park for a couple races just to get enough money to fix it. Where KB doesn't need the money and just takes a huge chunk out of the prize pool.

Also from a DFS perspective he ruins all the contests. You have to lock him but then it limits your options and everyone basically ends up on the same lineup since only one or two actually make sense.

Yesterday there were 3 whole viable lineups. I won every double up, but h2h lost most due to it basically being Moffitt vs. Chastain. When KB isn't in there it's more of a skill game.
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 01:16 PM   #279
blairr
stranger
 
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 2
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Anybody Have Jimmie Johnson in a bet or DFS in Sunday's 600 when he was dq'd in the post-race inspection? If so, how was it handled, did they grade him 2nd or last?
blairr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 01:23 PM   #280
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,350
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Post race inspections usually don't count towards wagers at most sports books.

I know Westgates does count it, so there he would lose. Bookmaker doesn't include it. Or at least they didn't on Sunday.

If you're looking for value tonight all the guys in the back. There's only 134 laps so not many laps led/fastest laps points.

Brennan Poole or Jesse Little are the best. Zane Smith is good but expensive.

Hill and Rohrbaugh too. They shouldn't park but I would double check close to lock. You really need to check this for trucks as most of the teams are broke. It happens the most here.

If I had to rank the drivers for fantasy perspective in terms of value

Kyle Busch > Poole > Little > Hill > Rohrbaugh > Kraus > Dauzat > forreister > Smith > Lessard

then if you fade KB good people to replace:

Chase, Chastain, Nemechek, Friesen, Moffitt, Sauter

And if you can get a line on will Natalie Decker crash, yes is a lock.
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 01:28 PM   #281
blairr
stranger
 
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 2
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
Post race inspections usually don't count towards wagers at most sports books.

I know Westgates does count it, so there he would lose. Bookmaker doesn't include it. Or at least they didn't on Sunday.

If you're looking for value tonight all the guys in the back. There's only 134 laps so not many laps led/fastest laps points.

Brennan Poole or Jesse Little are the best. Zane Smith is good but expensive.

Hill and Rohrbaugh too. They shouldn't park but I would double check close to lock. You really need to check this for trucks as most of the teams are broke. It happens the most here.

If I had to rank the drivers for fantasy perspective in terms of value

Kyle Busch > Poole > Little > Hill > Rohrbaugh > Kraus > Dauzat > forreister > Smith > Lessard

then if you fade KB good people to replace:

Chase, Chastain, Nemechek, Friesen, Moffitt, Sauter

And if you can get a line on will Natalie Decker crash, yes is a lock.

Thx. A standardized rule book, like the TDA has put together, is really needed.
blairr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 01:46 PM   #282
CodythePATRIOT
grinder
 
CodythePATRIOT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 686
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
The put in a rule a couple years ago that he could only race in 5 Xfinity and 5 Trucks races per year. Last year he won all 5 truck races.

From a sport stand point I don't think it's an issue that he races in trucks. Most of the people there are part-timers and there's small prize pools. I think it's messed up that he races in Xfinity. Those are races where teams try to build money so they can build up the resume of newer drivers. Kind of messed up to take away their money like that.
Could you imagine the equivalent of this in other sports leagues? Lol. Lebron coming down and dunking on fools in the g league, Patrick Mahomes going back to college and balling out of control.
CodythePATRIOT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 02:09 PM   #283
critiakx2
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 67
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
Post race inspections usually don't count towards wagers at most sports books.

I know Westgates does count it, so there he would lose. Bookmaker doesn't include it. Or at least they didn't on Sunday.

If you're looking for value tonight all the guys in the back. There's only 134 laps so not many laps led/fastest laps points.

Brennan Poole or Jesse Little are the best. Zane Smith is good but expensive.

Hill and Rohrbaugh too. They shouldn't park but I would double check close to lock. You really need to check this for trucks as most of the teams are broke. It happens the most here.

If I had to rank the drivers for fantasy perspective in terms of value

Kyle Busch > Poole > Little > Hill > Rohrbaugh > Kraus > Dauzat > forreister > Smith > Lessard

then if you fade KB good people to replace:

Chase, Chastain, Nemechek, Friesen, Moffitt, Sauter

And if you can get a line on will Natalie Decker crash, yes is a lock.
I have Natalie Decker projected for -7 DKpts, think that's too high maybe...

Any thoughts on Clay Greenfield at 39 for place diff pts or Ben Rhodes for pole laps led?
critiakx2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 02:11 PM   #284
hedgie43
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,201
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Quote:
Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT View Post
Nice Hedgie.
Fun/maddening sport to sweat. Let's get some trucks tonight.
hedgie43 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 03:29 PM   #285
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,350
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I have rhodes scoring about 7 more points than Greenfield. Eckes is another good one. I could see pairing either one with KB and being fine. Eckes 1 point less than Rhodes, but Eckes should have some fastest laps and he's good at finishing the race.

Rhodes could be good with all the speeding KB doing recently too.

Tomorrows cup race looks horrible.

FD you gotta lock JJ/Byron/Wallace since everyone else will due to their horrible pricing.

DK way too high on everything and none of the cheap guys are good. Probably going to have to shove one of the 5k guys in and pray

For bets love the same people. Chase, Truex.
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 03:30 PM   #286
Iowa!
old hand
 
Iowa!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,424
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Quote:
Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT View Post
Could you imagine the equivalent of this in other sports leagues? Lol. Lebron coming down and dunking on fools in the g league, Patrick Mahomes going back to college and balling out of control.
Or one of the legit top sports bettors betting strike out prop openers? Vijay Singh is currently receiving backlash for taking up a spot in the first Korn Ferry Tour event post-Covid. Personally I think people in competitive arenas should do whatever they want within the rules. If bottom feeders want more then play better.
Iowa! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 03:39 PM   #287
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,350
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

i miss strikeout props.

BM opening was like the stock market until they started limiting early action with $100 max bets around july

never forget $500 strikeout openers may 2019-june 2019. second greatest thing after Pinnacle 1st inning K props whic was now 13 years ago. I still think about it to this day.
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 03:44 PM   #288
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,350
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

for DK trucks I think the optimal line up is

Busch/Poole/Codie/Zane Smith/Jesse Little

then either T. Hill, Eckes, or Rhodes.

Depends on how you think the race is going to go.

KB takes a while to lead, Rhodes
Lot of swapping leads probably Eckes
KB leads right away Hill (if he races)

All have pros and cons. If KB leads early then Rhodes is gonna be capped at 2nd with -1 PD
Eckes could just hang out and not do much if KB or Rhodes just swap the lead.
Hill could park.

If Hill 100% is going to race the whole race I'm going to go him. If you think KB leading right away but don't want Hill try Lessard. I think Lessard at 100/1 is a decent bet too. As in there's value but you'll never hit it. But if you hit it, that would be an amazing screenshot to post.

Only benefit with parking is now there's 40 trucks and the payout is out 36. So probably not going to get any immediate withdraws.

Trucks in general are hard to predict because so many people park and switch cars.


Wednesday to win bets:
Truex +550
Chase +550
Byron +1500

Last edited by DefNotRsigley; Today at 03:57 PM.
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 05:25 PM   #289
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,350
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Whoops last trucks I swear

Creed also looks good. More experience than Lassard. I think Lassard is a better racer but he's only 17 and not many races, so my model could be overweight on him.

Creed is probably safer, Lassard more upside.
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 06:11 PM   #290
critiakx2
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 67
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

More trucks what else is there? What do you think about Busch/Smith/Creed/Poole/Little/Hill for cash? Going between Creed & Rhodes...thinking Creed safer bc of place diff and not that many laps to lead?
critiakx2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 06:40 PM   #291
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,350
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

probably first, since it's almost my cash line. i just swapped hill for rohrbaugh

both have really bad driver ratings but Rohrbaugh has been better than T. Hill. The one thing that worries me about Rohrbaugh is he's never raced Charlotte - the one time he tried he crashed during qualifying. He's raced Texas (similar to Charlotte) twice and both times he crashed during qualifying, which is pretty hard to do. So he might suck really bad at ovals and crash.

This is why trucks sucks. So little data and most of the teams are poor.

Maybe one benefit of Lessard over Creed is Lessard is in a Kyle Busch Motors car. They have money to spend, but outside of KB not much success.

Last edited by DefNotRsigley; Today at 06:46 PM.
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 06:52 PM   #292
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,350
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

lol he also crashed in the menard arca series at charlotte in 2019

https://www.racing-reference.info/ra...ral_Tire_150/A

i think i'm going to switch off him. too scary
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 07:09 PM   #293
critiakx2
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 67
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Had 60% rohrbaugh in tourneys but that crash history is a bit dicey. Prob gonna move a lot to Forrister / Dauzat
critiakx2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 07:09 PM   #294
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,350
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

here's his accident in arca

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5CN...outu.be&t=4117

classic just run right into the guy. forgot he had brakes. maybe i'll flip a coin between him and hill

heads up - dauzat is going to the back for unapproved adjustments. shouldn't matter much since he's starting 36th. he's also 61 and hasn't raced a lot in last couple of years. it's likely he just sits in the back and cruises which could be good if there's a lot of accidents.
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 07:14 PM   #295
critiakx2
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 67
Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Now between 30-40% on each of Rohr, Hill, Forrister, Dauzat. Flipping coins, indeed
critiakx2 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:59 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online