if you want KB fades I'm also going on

Moffitt +1600
Sauters +1600

Both are really good in trucks especially at Charlotte. In 2018 Sauters led most of the race and wouldn't let KB pass him.

also like

Moffitt > Chastain +100
Sauter > Chastain -110

Probably 100% KB in cash but thinking about fade in tournaments. Maybe like 20% KB with low salary cap and then 80% focused on moffitt/sauter. High variance throwing money away, but that is what we do best here.

KB must really love to race, guy doesn’t take a day off.

The put in a rule a couple years ago that he could only race in 5 Xfinity and 5 Trucks races per year. Last year he won all 5 truck races.

From a sport stand point I don't think it's an issue that he races in trucks. Most of the people there are part-timers and there's small prize pools. I think it's messed up that he races in Xfinity. Those are races where teams try to build money so they can build up the resume of newer drivers. Kind of messed up to take away their money like that.

Tommy Joe Martins is a lower tier grinder who has been trying to move up. He got in that huge accident yesterday, probably 100k in damage. Now he's going to have to park for a couple races just to get enough money to fix it. Where KB doesn't need the money and just takes a huge chunk out of the prize pool.

Also from a DFS perspective he ruins all the contests. You have to lock him but then it limits your options and everyone basically ends up on the same lineup since only one or two actually make sense.

Yesterday there were 3 whole viable lineups. I won every double up, but h2h lost most due to it basically being Moffitt vs. Chastain. When KB isn't in there it's more of a skill game.

Anybody Have Jimmie Johnson in a bet or DFS in Sunday's 600 when he was dq'd in the post-race inspection? If so, how was it handled, did they grade him 2nd or last?

Post race inspections usually don't count towards wagers at most sports books.

I know Westgates does count it, so there he would lose. Bookmaker doesn't include it. Or at least they didn't on Sunday.

If you're looking for value tonight all the guys in the back. There's only 134 laps so not many laps led/fastest laps points.

Brennan Poole or Jesse Little are the best. Zane Smith is good but expensive.

Hill and Rohrbaugh too. They shouldn't park but I would double check close to lock. You really need to check this for trucks as most of the teams are broke. It happens the most here.

If I had to rank the drivers for fantasy perspective in terms of value

Kyle Busch > Poole > Little > Hill > Rohrbaugh > Kraus > Dauzat > forreister > Smith > Lessard

then if you fade KB good people to replace:

Chase, Chastain, Nemechek, Friesen, Moffitt, Sauter

And if you can get a line on will Natalie Decker crash, yes is a lock.

Thx. A standardized rule book, like the TDA has put together, is really needed.

Could you imagine the equivalent of this in other sports leagues? Lol. Lebron coming down and dunking on fools in the g league, Patrick Mahomes going back to college and balling out of control.

I have Natalie Decker projected for -7 DKpts, think that's too high maybe...

Any thoughts on Clay Greenfield at 39 for place diff pts or Ben Rhodes for pole laps led?

Fun/maddening sport to sweat. Let's get some trucks tonight.

I have rhodes scoring about 7 more points than Greenfield. Eckes is another good one. I could see pairing either one with KB and being fine. Eckes 1 point less than Rhodes, but Eckes should have some fastest laps and he's good at finishing the race.

Rhodes could be good with all the speeding KB doing recently too.

Tomorrows cup race looks horrible.

FD you gotta lock JJ/Byron/Wallace since everyone else will due to their horrible pricing.

DK way too high on everything and none of the cheap guys are good. Probably going to have to shove one of the 5k guys in and pray

For bets love the same people. Chase, Truex.

Or one of the legit top sports bettors betting strike out prop openers? Vijay Singh is currently receiving backlash for taking up a spot in the first Korn Ferry Tour event post-Covid. Personally I think people in competitive arenas should do whatever they want within the rules. If bottom feeders want more then play better.

i miss strikeout props.

BM opening was like the stock market until they started limiting early action with $100 max bets around july

never forget $500 strikeout openers may 2019-june 2019. second greatest thing after Pinnacle 1st inning K props whic was now 13 years ago. I still think about it to this day.

for DK trucks I think the optimal line up is

Busch/Poole/Codie/Zane Smith/Jesse Little

then either T. Hill, Eckes, or Rhodes.

Depends on how you think the race is going to go.

KB takes a while to lead, Rhodes
Lot of swapping leads probably Eckes
KB leads right away Hill (if he races)

All have pros and cons. If KB leads early then Rhodes is gonna be capped at 2nd with -1 PD
Eckes could just hang out and not do much if KB or Rhodes just swap the lead.
Hill could park.

If Hill 100% is going to race the whole race I'm going to go him. If you think KB leading right away but don't want Hill try Lessard. I think Lessard at 100/1 is a decent bet too. As in there's value but you'll never hit it. But if you hit it, that would be an amazing screenshot to post.

Only benefit with parking is now there's 40 trucks and the payout is out 36. So probably not going to get any immediate withdraws.

Trucks in general are hard to predict because so many people park and switch cars.


Wednesday to win bets:
Truex +550
Chase +550
Byron +1500

Whoops last trucks I swear

Creed also looks good. More experience than Lassard. I think Lassard is a better racer but he's only 17 and not many races, so my model could be overweight on him.

Creed is probably safer, Lassard more upside.

More trucks what else is there? What do you think about Busch/Smith/Creed/Poole/Little/Hill for cash? Going between Creed & Rhodes...thinking Creed safer bc of place diff and not that many laps to lead?

probably first, since it's almost my cash line. i just swapped hill for rohrbaugh

both have really bad driver ratings but Rohrbaugh has been better than T. Hill. The one thing that worries me about Rohrbaugh is he's never raced Charlotte - the one time he tried he crashed during qualifying. He's raced Texas (similar to Charlotte) twice and both times he crashed during qualifying, which is pretty hard to do. So he might suck really bad at ovals and crash.

This is why trucks sucks. So little data and most of the teams are poor.

Maybe one benefit of Lessard over Creed is Lessard is in a Kyle Busch Motors car. They have money to spend, but outside of KB not much success.

lol he also crashed in the menard arca series at charlotte in 2019

https://www.racing-reference.info/ra...ral_Tire_150/A

i think i'm going to switch off him. too scary

Had 60% rohrbaugh in tourneys but that crash history is a bit dicey. Prob gonna move a lot to Forrister / Dauzat

here's his accident in arca

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5CN...outu.be&t=4117

classic just run right into the guy. forgot he had brakes. maybe i'll flip a coin between him and hill

heads up - dauzat is going to the back for unapproved adjustments. shouldn't matter much since he's starting 36th. he's also 61 and hasn't raced a lot in last couple of years. it's likely he just sits in the back and cruises which could be good if there's a lot of accidents.

Now between 30-40% on each of Rohr, Hill, Forrister, Dauzat. Flipping coins, indeed

looks like rohr is super chalk in cash. switched to hill lets get it

6 accidents in 1 year in ovals

rhodes didn't even lead one lap lol

kyle busch's helmet is broken. air conditioner stopped

lol now pit issues for kyle

lets go mofitt, lessard, and sauters

lock of the year