WTF WHY DID CHASE PIT

Wtf is Elliot doing....

lol wtf is chase team trying to throw this race?

think i might need to retire from nascar betting regardless of how this finishes

I was UP 15k or so on DK now i'm breaking even because i was heavy on chase and truex and both pitted

plus the 12k on the line if chase won

this sport is the worst sport ever.

KESELOWSKI AND JJ PLEASE WRECK EACH OTHER

our guy was like 2 seconds ahead wiht 2 laps to go and now we r in overtime in 11th place?

i just dont get it. seems like a sport rife with angle shooting

that was one of the stupidest things ive ever seen

about as fun as the rain calling the other race

WHY THE **** DID HE PIT

WHY

lol i almost won a nascar live seat but i chopped 1st with someone



hope you at least got the lineups

I don't play DFS but I am glad you at least got something out of this.

Fresh tires with 2 laps, yeah those will really come in handy.

sorry i don't know why this ****ing **** happens to us every ****ing week

always have all the great cars at great odds and then something stupid as hell causes us to lose at the end or before the race even starts.

we knew hendricks was gonna dominate and they did.

we knew chevy was going to dominate and they did.

we knew almirola was a lock before anyone else did.

we had all the people up front at big odds.

its so ****ing stupid

**** this sport

i don't ****ing understand how we can crush DFS every week but win 29% of h2h bets

it makes zero ****ing sense. if we were flipping coins we couldn't do this bad

I'm having blast watching the sport and learning more about it. Losing sucks obviously, but I feel good about the methodology behind it. Going to look more at the data and build a scaper. I ended up taking a bath but I'm not deterred. An important concept I follow is "Investing in Loss" from The Art of Learning. The rule basically states that you're not really losing if you're learning in the process. So I think we should just keep chipping away and we will get it. You're doing a great job.

happy you got a win out of it in draftkings, sig

i think your model is good and the leads are sharp, the line movement is obviously with you in all the bets i check

i just find the sport wildly unejoyable lol. we shouldve won the last 2 races ez

no need to apologize bro

ill probably still bet whatever longshot you like next race anyway lol, but ill try to not watch it

apparently for the qualifying seat i need to do a 8k h2h with the person i tied with

1st is the 7.5k seat
2nd is $555

i'm assuming on wednesday?

thats what id guess, i assume theyd prompt you with an email hopefully soon with the entry to whatever they want u to play

gl take it down

interesting about the h2h option, i know in the past someone chopped and they paid out cash equivalent and it was a pretty big lol thread on rotogrinders

woke up still tilted over chase

this is the email i got

i wouldn't recommend betting these but just noting it so you know who is going to do something ridiculous at the end of the race

To Win Alsco 300:
Chastain +800
Allgaier +1650
Sieg +9000

I'm also thinking a fade KB strat for tournaments. I really like Allgaier and Chastain here. Allgaier has great course history and Chastain has the pole.

Might go Allgaier/Chastain/Moffitt/Clements/Sieg/Snider

if I do KB it would be Busch/Chastain/Sieg/Snider/Graf Jr/Bassett

Some XFinity notes:

There's 150 extra points (100 fastest laps, 50 laps led)

There's no caution lap, so Ross Chastain could lead for a while. I think there's an outside chance Brandon Jones passes him early. Jones has better green flag speed this year and the packages these cars are using have more horsepower which should lead to more passing than yesterday. I'm setting a group that has max 1 of them.

Kyle Busch to pay off him 17k price needs a lot of those 150 points. I'd say 50 would be ideal. If he wins - starting 18th, that's 17 place differential points, 46 points for first so 63. Usually 4x is okay, but with no real good 5k choices probably need 100-110 from him to make it worthwhile. So if you think he can get 50 of those 150 points then it should be good.

Personally, I'm putting KB in cash, 0% in single entry tournaments, and about 10% in the big GPPs. Lets get this minor league nascar money

Finish Pred. vs. Actual



DK Pred. vs. Actual



best fit of the season

worst results of the season

Had a decent night at fantasy NASCAR but would've been much better if not for the late pits. Also would've been much better if I played 90% Blaney like I originally had an didn't pivot a bunch to Bowyer for "ownership".

You get an adjustment for Jimmie Johnson on FD? I only had one entry in a few tourneys there but got a couple bucks back, DK scoring stays as-is apparently.

Yep got a whole $3 or so. Only did cash on FD and no one had him I guess.

Now there's a competition caution at lap 20 which helps Kyle Busch more and hurts Ross Chastain

I'm torn NASCAR bros, what would you do for cash motor sports bros?

Busch/Chastain/Sieg/Snider/Graf/Bassett

Pros: Chastain could get dominator points, Chastain upside
Cons: If he loses the lead late and ends up in like 10th that's going to cancel out any points he gets

Replace Chastain with Moffitt or Clements (I prefer Moffitt)

Higher floor for Moffitt, but then you're putting 100% of the extra points on KB's shoulder. Sieg is unlikely to get any laps led. Might get some fastest laps.

Other idea: Fade KB completely in cash. If KB goes off you'll probably cash like $12 in a $10 double up similar to last week. Ramping up the variance but if KB struggles you're cashing everything. Cons: This relies on Chastain doing good and if he does good then the first cash lineup with him should be fine and offers the protection if KB goes off.

Option 100: Go with Allgaier who I like the most and KB and pray the low guys pay off

No strong leans for Xifinity since I don't know the drivers that well yet. I am hoping that we are cooking up something tonight.

I'm no Nascar expert but maybe one would be better suited for the 5-10x returns and others for H2H? Higher mean vs. median type of thing

I got

Sieg > Herbst +115
Allgaier > Burton -120
Sieg > Haley -115
Chastain > Jones -115