Think I'm going to be -50% or so for the slate, can't really tell with golf still in there & don't want to bother calculating. Main cash lineup did well but in the second I pivoted to JHN. GPPs most of the loss.

Winning lineup in the $1 20max that paid $1,500 is 4pts better than the $12 150-max that paid $150,000. Guess that's why I convince myself to keep playing these awful payout structure gpps. Golf cash, SE, and 3-max went really well this week but lost in the milly maker still bc of the awful payout structure.

i think if you refresh golf goes away. did for me about halfway thru the race. that was confusing this week since i actually won money in golf whereas the past couple sundays it wasn't an issue.

it's amazing i got 2nd in the $1500 but was 60 points out of first.

h2h did actually pretty decent. need to grade but BM showing + money and not all from golf.

i think i'm skipping the all star race or doing less volume. the payout on the big tourney is so horrid.

Yea it just went away and I'm -50%. Guess I should've followed your advice + play less gpp volume. Only a little above even for the week despite winning the 10x in golf cash between this and trucks.

the RG package has been getting crushed since their big loss at talladega. I see all the same h2h lineups and I'm assuming they come from there.

40k nascar dfs four day weekend, should have been 50+ without the xfin late caution but not gonna complain.

Yea I think they're the only people I'm beating. Won a number of 3-mans even with my bad JHN cash lineup I'm assuming against them.

For the weekend I was -22% on $3K voume in dfs. Had a chance at the $20k for the second xfinity race before solo crashes and restart mess but still worse results than just gpp variance explains. My rankings have been pretty close to yours too, gotta retool something.

looks like we went 8-6 +1.2u

Harvick > Busch +1
Aric > Bowyer +1
Kurt > JJ +1
Logano < Blaney (I didn't bet this but if you followed the charT) -1.08
Kese < Blaney (same) -1.35
Kese > Logano +1.12
Chase > Blaney -1
Logano > Chase +1.15
Truex > Hamlin +1.2
KB > Truex (I didn't bet this either) -1.5
KB > Hamlin (same) -1.02
Harvick > Truex -1.32
Harvick > Hamlin +1
Bowman > Jones +1

Manually lowering KB and raising Blaney worked out. I still had KB > Blaney but when I ran the simulations for h2h no value in any of those bets i listed above.

Did much better on BO. I didn't bet everything (only which had value when i run my simulations) but I ended up 13-3 over there

Gonna try to make a tool this week where you can just select two drivers and it will give you a fair line for their h2h.

registered www.motorsportsodds.com and gonna put some tools i use up there (projecting h2h, groups, to wins odds), etc. up there.

preview of next week, minus the starting position.

Gap from Harvick to Truex is insane. 3 median positions.

about 1 to logano

then logano - hamlin are all grouped by 1

3 to aric

aric to jones grouped by about 2

2 to kenseth-bowyer
2 to newman-reddick
mcdowell-preece close
then rest of scrubs close

top 10 drivers at texas in the past 5 years

1) Harvick (by a lot)
2) Kyle Busch
3) Logano
4) Kurt
5) Jones
6) Blaney
7) Aric
8) Byron
9) Bowyer
10) Truex/Suarez

Texas is another 1.5 mile course. Quad-oval. Two doglegs on the main straightaway near the finish line. High banks, high speed. Similar to Atlanta (where Harvick dominated this year) and Charlotte (Keselowski on Chase pit, and Chase).

Key skill: Turning through corners through downforce and grip so you can maintain speed when turning.

Too bad Aric is now chalk every week or he'd be a good under the radar. Jones might have lost some steam after crashing and could be good value. Bowyer/Byron/Kurt too. Suarez is interesting. Good history but has been terrible this year. Rest will just be good PD plays that we hope will get lucky. No more Custer since now he's going to start further up with the big boys.

welp.

could be bristol next? thats where the all star race is

I don't follow F1 at all, but anytime I look at the odds, it always seems like the best you can get Hamilton on any race is +150. Definitely a lot more predictable.

Was able to get two more:

Truex>Elliot
Bowyer<Byron


Both were + so eked out a small profit.

Looks like they are still gonna run Texas this weekend!

lets get it. i dunno if there's any advantage in the all star race especially with them racing in a couple days. gonna avoid it.

to see how bad trucks



compared to

xfin



cup



we are lucky that trucks has less action and less slates

wow the winner of the all star race gets a million dollars? i thought this was like every other sport meaningless all star game

guess we playing it.

Truex on pole for All-Star. Lineup: 1-Truex 2-Bowman 3-Blaney 4-Haley 5-Harvick 6-Kenseth 7-KuBusch 8-Custer 9-Keselowski 10-KyBusch 11-Newman 12-Logano 13-Elliott 14-Johnson 15-Hamlin 16-Jones 17-Winner Open Segment 1 18-Segment 2 winner 19-Segment 3 winner 20-Fan vote

KB $9100 starting 10th? here we go again

i think he's actually good value this time and will probably have him in cash

Rankings for All Star Race pre-open racers being added



Lot of people could qualify from the open. Three of these should: Bell, Aric, Stenhouse, Bowyer, DiBenedetto. And then Bubba should get the fan vote.

Will try to run it again in between races, but it's tight. I would avoid betting the open. When a driver wins the stage they will park their car. So the "to win" bets you are seeing are way too low for that randomness.

I have Harvick as a massive favorite (what else is new)

Keselowski about 2 positions behind him. 2-4 are really close. If I run the model again I wouldn't be surprised if they shuffle spots. 5 is about 1/4th a position from the 2-4 group and 1 from 6th. 6-7 virtually the same. 8-11 close.

Haley is 6 points behind custer. He's in here because he won the rain shortened Daytona last year.

Top DR at BRistol from the drivers in the race

1) KB
(big gap)
2) Hamlin
3) Logano
4) Harvick
5) Elliott

KB led ~100 laps here earlier in the year. I really think this is a rebound spot for him. Still think Harvick wins but KB starting from 10th has to be a fantasy lock.

This is a pretty good analysis of KB speed issues

https://motorsportsanalytics.net/analysis/dredw

Did Circa really open Harvick +1100 and Truex +1900 or am I looking at the wrong race??? Must be nice to be able to bet there

nope they did for the all star. I took Harvick +1050 and Truex 15/1.

they also currently have Group bets where 1 of the drivers is actually in the race

These are their crazy groups

Kurt Busch/Almirola*/Bowman/Erik Jones

Jimmie Johnson/DiBenedetto*/Byron*/Reddick* (and JJ is +300)

Custer/Bell*/Bowyer*/Dillon*

Kenseth/Stenhouse*/NEwman/Buescher*

All the * guys haven't even qualified for the all star race, so they need to (a) win a stage or get in through fan vote and then (b) beat the driver

It should be obvious which ones I max bet.

What is great too is betonline just copied all of circa's non sense group lines on this

Oh gotcha I’m dumb

oh no i'd question it too since it makes no sense

the current line is harvick 4.5/1

circa is a really square book. they lowered their limits a lot since they opened

And all the group things are down. Circa has to honor it. Betonline will probably cancel

Circa doesn't have lines up for the race in their Colorado book but another local book had Harvick +1000 and Truex +1800 just now. $100 limits though so nothing to get overly excited about.

Circa took down the entire all star race a couple hours ago after they posted those non sense groups. I wonder if something in their risk management took it all OTB

Are they offering more than $500 limits on golf? When they first opened the opening limits were so good and they'd raise them after only a couple hours. Now it's $500 and doesn't go to 1k until the day before

I also took Keselowski 10/1. available at BM

Need to move to Colorado. Harvick down to 4/1 at most major books.

Not sure. They don't list limits as far as I can tell and haven't bet on golf there yet, mostly due to a lack of funds in the account. Depositing is a pain in the ass to many of these books in Colorado. I've had trouble depositing more than 2k at a time at anywhere but Draftkings, mostly due to shitty payment processors. Draftkings let me do $2500 initially and then immediately made it very easy to do a bank wire when I asked if I could do more. Everyone else has wanted a bunch of KYC and "deposit history" before raising deposit limits. Monarch did tell me I could drive up to Blackhawk and deposit as much as I wanted at the cage, which I didn't mind for a one off as an excuse to go for a drive for a few hours, but wouldn't want to have to do for every book. Plus, it was a huge hassle to pull out money from the bank and I had to go to 2 branches.

the joys of legalized gambling

wait until they start shutting down your bank accounts even though it's legal. Still banned at Wells Fargo, Chase, and Bank of America.

I'm going to wait until the open is over to make my lineup but I think you need to lock in

Keselowski, Chase, Jones, Blaney for cash

Truex and Bowman should drop fast. They're not good here and Blaney will lead early. If you don't think Blaney will lead I'd play KB over him.

I want to play Hamlin especially from 15th but he's so expensive. I have Chase from 13th being about the same in terms of points but $400 cheaper.

If Bowyer makes it then I can see going Bowyer/Kurt for the final two. If not Bowyer then thinking about Newman/Kyle.

If Matt DiBenedetto gets in then I'm going to go Matt D and Hamlin.

If both Matt and Bowyer qualify I prefer the Matt line

A popular build should be Truex, Blaney, Keselowski, Kyle, JJ, Jones. Lot of PD and a really strong floor. I'm approaching cash more like single entry and focusing on upside instead of floor.