Sorry to hear--team fade-blaney ended up fine in cash with all Kesel's issues. Had Kyle in initially and of course pivoted off him bc he got sent to the back...even though my original scenario doesn't have him leading in stage 1 anyways. Not sure why I keep doing that even though I've never been right with the switch and write a note in this thread not to do it every time.
How much is avg. finish position impacted by tech issues? Not sure I have great coding on this historically to investigate. Obviously want to make a change if it's the pole leader or something from a fantasy perspective but GFS still has to be way more important. Maybe create a checklist of tech issues we adjust for and always go by the checklist.
Managed to win a $312 ticket for championship race contest in November so I'm back in on fantasy crashcar again
Average running position is a much better predictor than avg finish position. A lot of people get tricked into avg finish position but it's usually due a late wreck or something. Like they're running 28th for most of the race, finish 20th, and then everyone hops on next time because they finished 20th.
GFS is messy. If you look at races where people crash out early they're always ranked really high on GFS because it's literally an average of green flag speed across the whole race. So they're running with new tires in the beginning before their cars get dirty air, etc.
that is a place where I actually use avg finishing position. If theirs is below 25th I exclude it and bump everyone up.
What I've been doing is pulling the lap by lap times and calculating things like GFS for Stage 1, Stage 2, etc. I found it better. Some issues are for the back guys because they pit at random times, getting new tires, so they appear much faster than they actually are (and ignore that they finish a stage 10 laps down or whatever).
I've also recently (i.e., since April) started re-defining passing statistics. The Nascar loop data defined a quality pass as a pass inside the top 15. This is what led everyone to Blaney at Bristol and why I got into an argument over it. If you look lap by lap Blaney's passing a lot of people in the 15-8 range, but isn't passing anyone in the 7-1 range outside of re-starts and pit road (vs. somewhere like 1.5 mile tracks where he is much better and passes people up front). The stats are heavily skewed because he's also getting passed a lot in the 15-8 range, so he's just swapping spots with the same people. Last Bristol race he led in quality passes but only broke the top 5 once.
So I've been using the lap by lap data to create new quality pass metrics based on passing 1-5, 6-10, 11-15 (really it's just for every space but making bands is nicer). Kurt Busch is another one who fits this mold. He's really good at getting into the top 8, but then he doesn't move up unless he picks up spots on pit road or re-starts. From the stats he always looks like he's a good passer but he's not. He's like the top of the second tier guys.
Championship weekend off to a great start with a trucks wreck by some scrub several laps down right before the end and Nascar's rules somehow keeping Harvick out of the Cup final 4
he's in the 21 like last week. was big on him (like most people) and then of course he crashes at the end because nascar
i'm really like ross for the other group. my only worry is that haley is in the playoffs and he might help him since they're teammates. so i think i'm going haley. have him and ross about the same in projections.
i'd avoid cindric and briscoe. both are bad at this track type. last phoenix briscoe only gained spots in pit road and his pit crew has really lost their advantage since the summer. cindric stayed around 10th the entire race.
Those are the worst. Been doing pretty well since NFL started a couple annoying crashes aside, even trucks amazingly so maybe less thinking is the way to go. Hasn't worked out for swing/covid season golf as well though
Have Ross slightly > Haley today but maybe will just prioritize Haley with the playoff dynamic
Won a ticket for the $312 tomorrow on DK at some point too, but prob not gonna add any entries so won't go too far off the board
Had a solid day with baley currey, Cindric just too good this year track type be damned
Lot of ways to go tomorrow I think. Prob 2 of the playoff guys, maybe with Harvick or KB? Byron/Reddick good PD options, Buescher starting 31. Larson was good here pre-covid season and Kenseth has been good historically, but not as great on similar tracks this year.
should throw out 2019 ISM results IMO. different package that was impossible to pass. if you remove that and focus on 2020 flat + 2018 az harvick/elliot/kes top.
elliott has #1 pit stall too which helps here
mcdowell should be good too. trying to decide mcdowell/lajoie or ty/jhn
lajoie is probably gonna stay out and try to catch a caution. if it works out great. if not he's gonna end up laps down
I'm pretty close to that, but using KB over harvick to get buescher > jhn. Def prefer harvick but not sure for $1500 more, though unfortunately the KB needs a win narrative is already dead. Hhn ran slightly better avg position than buescher first phoenix race though despite finishing 8 spots worse so maybe that $1700 is just as valuable.
Logano chalkiest in the $312 (looks like a little overlay) at 56% vs. Chase 27%. The $15 it's 44% Logano vs. 31% Chase so wonder if it's everyone switching to Logano after Chase went to back
my highest ROI was the $1,060 3-man because some guy enters everyone and plays horrible lineups. He's also responsible for ~27% of my cash winnings lol. He shares his lineup with 2 people too and they're responsible for ~12%.
Without them who knows how the year would have went.
I'd have to dig into the individual tournaments but I really think those 3 people who play the same exact horrible lineup every week are responsible for 50% of my dfs profit.
Didn't play any of those this slate but had a $270 4-man WTA that I won yesterday with a no badge guy and I'm sure one of the guys you're referring to. I think they beat the lol RG lineup so in larger field I'm guessing more of your $ comes from them in the larger fields.
