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Old 07-05-2020, 04:10 PM   #1
DonnieBrascoBH
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My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

Hi everyone, I have developed my own sports betting system and the current results are quite good, so need your opinion how can be improved and also do you think its just a lucky run or actually it is something?I also run a social media page where its all recorded but probably Im not allowed to share the name here, so i will give you the stats so far:

Each day contains exactly 4 tips, sport markets with 2 outcomes only (over/under points,goals,sets etc.

*34 days with at least one winner per day and only 1 lost day (where all 4 tips were lost)

*82 total winning picks which is coming to 2.4 winners per day on average.

*Average odds are 1.87 (lowest winning odds are 1.79).

The only problem is that the staking plan that works so far is Martingale which everyone knows how risky it is. So two questions, do you think its just a lucky run and what staking plan would you suggest?
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Old 07-06-2020, 04:38 AM   #2
DonnieBrascoBH
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

To get your attention here are today`s picks:

10:00 (UK Time)/ Baseball / Japan / NPB / Odds 1.90 (9/10)
⚾️ Hiroshima Carp - Hanshin Tigers 𝐏𝐈𝐂𝐊: Under 8.5 Runs 🕘

13:50 (UK Time)/ Ice Hockey / Russia / Comet Division - Short Hockey / Odds 1.98 (9/10)
🏒 Krasnye Kryliya - Stalker Moscow 𝐏𝐈𝐂𝐊: Under 9.5 🕘

17:00 (UK Time)/ Soccer / Armenia / Premier League / Odds 2.04 (1/1)
⚽️ Ararat Yerevan - Ararat-Armenia 𝐏𝐈𝐂𝐊: Under 2.5 Goals 🕘

20:00 (UK Time)/ Soccer / England / Premier League / Odds 2.00 (1/1)
⚽️ Tottenham - Everton 𝐏𝐈𝐂𝐊: Over 2.5 Goals 🕘
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Old 07-06-2020, 05:41 PM   #3
DonnieBrascoBH
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

Results:

10:00 (UK Time)/ Baseball / Japan / NPB / Odds 1.90 (9/10)
⚾️ Hiroshima Carp - Hanshin Tigers ��������������������

��������������

10:50 (UK Time)/ Ice Hockey / Russia / Liga Pro - Short Hockey / Odds 1.88 (8/10)
�� Tsentrovye Kulturologi - Sinie Tigry ��������: Under 8.5 ✅ Won

13:50 (UK Time)/ Ice Hockey / Russia / Comet Division - Short Hockey / Odds 1.98 (9/10)
�� Krasnye Kryliya - Stalker Moscow ��������: Under 9.5 ✅ Won

17:00 (UK Time)/ Soccer / Armenia / Premier League / Odds 2.04 (1/1)
⚽️ Ararat Yerevan - Ararat-Armenia ��������: Under 2.5 Goals ✅ Won

20:00 (UK Time)/ Soccer / England / Premier League / Odds 2.00 (1/1)
⚽️ Tottenham - Everton ��������: Over 2.5 Goals ��*☠️ Lost
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Old 07-07-2020, 05:15 AM   #4
DonnieBrascoBH
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

Today`s picks:

10:30 (UK Time)/ Baseball / South Korea / KBO / Odds 1.91 (9/10)
⚾️ SK Wyverns - NC Dinos 𝐏𝐈𝐂𝐊: Under 8.5 Runs 🕘

15:00 (UK Time)/ Tennis / Austria / Exhibition Thiem's Seven Men / Odds 1.92 (9/10)
🎾 Thiem D. - Ruud C. 𝐏𝐈𝐂𝐊: Under 18.5 Games 🕘

18:30 (UK Time)/ Basketball / Israel / Super League / Odds 1.90 (9/10)
🏀 Gilboa Galil - Hapoel Beer Sheva 𝐏𝐈𝐂𝐊: Under 169.5 Points (Including Overtime) 🕘

20:40 (UK Time)/ Soccer / Italy / Serie A / Odds 1.99 (9/10)
⚽️ AC Milan - Juventus 𝐏𝐈𝐂𝐊: Under 2.5 Goals 🕘
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Old 07-07-2020, 06:12 AM   #5
SwoopAE
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

Martingale does not work if that's what you want to know

Whether you win or lose in the long term depends on whether your individual bets are profitable and whether you use sensible bankroll management (google kelly criterion) no combination of overall losing bets will become overall profit

Your sample to date is completely meaningless, if you're consistently beating the sharp books closing lines or have a winning betting model then you'll do well if you use proper BRM, if not then you will almost certainly go broke regardless
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Old 07-07-2020, 09:06 AM   #6
purrretrog
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

Yea what is the criteria for a certain bet to become one of the ‘picks’, also why 4? If you believe there is more profitable bets available on the day do you leave them?
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Old 07-07-2020, 03:26 PM   #7
heehaww
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

A winning bettor doesn't have a predetermined number of picks. If there are no +EV bets on a given day, they won't make any bets. If there are 8, they'll make 8 bets and maybe combinations thereof.

Making +EV bets is the only way to win. You don't seem to be betting based on EV.

The martingale system is complete trash. Stop martingaling immediately.
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Old 07-07-2020, 07:04 PM   #8
hedgie43
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Martingale does not work if that's what you want to know

Whether you win or lose in the long term depends on whether your individual bets are profitable and whether you use sensible bankroll management (google kelly criterion) no combination of overall losing bets will become overall profit

Your sample to date is completely meaningless, if you're consistently beating the sharp books closing lines or have a winning betting model then you'll do well if you use proper BRM, if not then you will almost certainly go broke regardless
Very, very few sports bettors in the world fail due to poor bankroll management. Most gamblers' Kelly bankrolls are orders of magnitude larger than what they consider their bankrolls at any given point in time.
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Old 07-08-2020, 05:39 AM   #9
DonnieBrascoBH
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonnieBrascoBH View Post
Today`s picks:

10:30 (UK Time)/ Baseball / South Korea / KBO / Odds 1.91 (9/10)
⚾️ SK Wyverns - NC Dinos 𝐏𝐈𝐂𝐊: Under 8.5 Runs 🕘

15:00 (UK Time)/ Tennis / Austria / Exhibition Thiem's Seven Men / Odds 1.92 (9/10)
🎾 Thiem D. - Ruud C. 𝐏𝐈𝐂𝐊: Under 18.5 Games 🕘

18:30 (UK Time)/ Basketball / Israel / Super League / Odds 1.90 (9/10)
🏀 Gilboa Galil - Hapoel Beer Sheva 𝐏𝐈𝐂𝐊: Under 169.5 Points (Including Overtime) 🕘

20:40 (UK Time)/ Soccer / Italy / Serie A / Odds 1.99 (9/10)
⚽️ AC Milan - Juventus 𝐏𝐈𝐂𝐊: Under 2.5 Goals 🕘
LOST
LOST
WON
LOST
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Old 07-08-2020, 05:40 AM   #10
DonnieBrascoBH
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

Today`s picks:

10:00 (UK Time) ���������������������� ������ ����:���� (UK Time) / Volleyball / Russia / Ural Championship Women / Odds 1.89 (8/10)
��Red Fox Ural W - Energy Ural W ��������: Over 182.5 Point ��

13:00 (UK Time)/ Basketball / China / CBA / Odds 1.92 (9/10)
�� Liaoning - Jiangsu Dragons ��������: Over 206.5 Points (Including Overtime) ��

16:30 (UK Time)/ Soccer / Finland / Veikkausliiga / Odds 2.00 (1/1)
⚽️ Mariehamn - Honka ��������: Over 2.5 Goals ��

20:55 (UK Time)/ Ice Hockey / Russia / Liga Pro - Short Hockey / Odds 1.95 (9/10)
�� Chetyre Ledokola - Shest Trolley ��������: Over 8.5 ��
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Old 07-08-2020, 10:56 AM   #11
MaxWithdrawal
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

Personally I think it needs more ��� but besides that the system seems fine and I would expect it to win long-term.
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Old 07-19-2020, 10:04 AM   #12
rickroll
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

subbed for OP name

don't agree with your system but will cheer you on, gl
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Old 08-17-2020, 08:42 PM   #13
magoo
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

Sports betting? Screw some books or buying picks. All the best sports betting advice is in a movie titled
"UNCUT GEMS", currently on Blu-Ray and DVD shelves. See that movie, if you like to bet sports.
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Old 08-18-2020, 10:58 PM   #14
redbuck
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

babs, babs is that you???
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Old 08-30-2020, 02:20 AM   #15
Powerdrinker
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

Quote:
Originally Posted by magoo View Post
Sports betting? Screw some books or buying picks. All the best sports betting advice is in a movie titled
"UNCUT GEMS", currently on Blu-Ray and DVD shelves. See that movie, if you like to bet sports.
tnx for the tip, its on flix as well!
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Old 09-03-2020, 03:12 PM   #16
colt45ss
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

6 team parlays like lotto tickets not sure that's a gem of a way to max value
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Old 09-08-2020, 10:56 AM   #17
8 8 8
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

Quote:
Originally Posted by heehaww View Post
The martingale system is complete trash. Stop martingaling immediately.
Martingaling is not trash at all, its just limited. (in a varied number of ways)
Martingale is my bread and butter income for my skill-based bets.
I agree its trash, but remove/fix all your concerns and you will see it works.
Its working for me at least!
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Old 09-09-2020, 01:21 AM   #18
solring
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

Quote:
Originally Posted by 8 8 8 View Post
Martingaling is not trash at all...Its working for me at least!
I'm looking forward to more of your posts...
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Old 09-09-2020, 07:09 AM   #19
Hot*ShoT
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

Martingaling is the bookies wet dream. They don't even have to do anything might would coming off as bad publicity, just let you dig your own grave and wait until you lay yourself in....

Last edited by Hot*ShoT; 09-09-2020 at 07:25 AM.
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Old 09-09-2020, 08:26 AM   #20
8 8 8
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

Ok, let me get this straight:
if your life depended on it, you could not make Martingaling work on sports?
Because i can, without any effort/problem at all what so ever. (>10y)
Biggest problem is my accounts being closed tbh.

Not going to spoonfeed u guys but will answer to questions.
Also, im talking units fyi.

Martingaling is the bookies wet dream?
Yes and no:
No: why would they cap it otherwise?
Yes: because its capped!

Also, Martingaling (as i see it) does not per se means 1-2-4 (although it does obv)
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Old 09-09-2020, 08:42 AM   #21
Hot*ShoT
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

I don't think anyones life ever depended on making martingale work on sports, but what do I know, maybe it did. May them rest in peace lol

As far accounts being closed so it doesn't work at the end isn't it? With every new account it also works a little bit less than it did with the previous one... Assuming there are a finite number of accounts and books but probably it gets shut down sooner or exploited more every time as they accumulate data.

Let me guess those account are being closed when you're either up a bit or when you're ran like aids forever and would just about begin mean reverting.
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Old 09-09-2020, 03:51 PM   #22
8 8 8
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hot*ShoT View Post

As far accounts being closed so it doesn't work at the end isn't it?
Like i said, it has it's limitations. (this is one of em)
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Old 09-20-2020, 06:53 PM   #23
parlaypaula
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Re: My Sport Betting System (opinions please)

I've been using Moneyballerz and they use a 2% system so you never go broke and its been going pretty well but a Martingale system is the opposite a recipe for disaster because bad streaks evetually hit and your sample size is still pretty small, GL
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