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I put this in the sports betting section because that is the kind of betting I'm most interested in and it can be used there by carefully choosing the bets and their odds

a bettor could choose money line odds with a positive return or slightly negative odds for the early steps and there would still be a net win but it would be less than $10

I am not claiming this is a winning system - only that it's pretty interesting - and more fun than a traditional marty

here are the steps based on the original bet being $10.00 - it's 9 step marty - yes, I know that makes the risk high but there should be many, many wins before losing 9 in a row

10 10 40 80 160 320 640 1280 2560______________the total risk is $5100 - $10 less than the total risk of a traditional marty doubling every time during 9 steps

note that on the 2nd step a win will just break you even - it won't get you ahead

all of the other steps from the 3rd step on will get you a 2 unit win instead of a one unit win ($20. win instead of a $10 win)

I think I might be able to go the entire rest of my life without losing 9 in a row___________ but I might croak when I'm well down - that's okay - I won't need the money then______

this could be great to get bonuses, boosts and free play too



here's a quick analysis based on betting an even chance with no vig (yes, I know it's difficult to get that but this is just an example):



25% of the time you will lose the first step and win the 2nd step so compared to a traditional marty you will only break even instead of winning $10

50% of the time you will win the first bet

25% of the rest of the time you will win 2 units - $20 instead of $10 - any win from the 3rd step on - you would win $20 instead of the $10 if you used a traditional marty

and if you're good at sports betting it would probably take you a very long time to crash and burn and hopefully by that time you will have made more than $5100



comments____________?

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I have decided to modify my modified marty even further with the same total risk to this:

10 20 20 80 160 320 640 1280 2560


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note that a player doesn't get ahead with a win on the 3rd step - so he goes back to the 2nd step to try to get ahead

if he loses on the 3rd step at any time a win on the 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9th step will cause a win of 30 instead of 10 on the traditional marty which is doubling every time


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If you're assuming everything's a 50/50 wouldn't that only work with spread betting?

No series of -EV wagers can become +EV, sorry. You didn't even modify Martingale, you just set an arbitrary limit on it.

Instead of trying to modify martingale, why don't you work on learning to make profitable sports bets, then using something like the half kelly system for bankroll management and making money instead of losing it

I recommend starting with an easy, niche sport of some sort that has inefficient markets. For me, that's Rugby Sevens, Rugby League and a few other niche leagues. If you follow a niche enough league you should probably be able to beat it with handicapping and while that only applies at low limits since you'll struggle to get huge sums on niche stuff, it's a good place to start building your bankroll and I assume you're not going to be building a statistical model from this post to win that way, so find a super niche sport, learn everything about it, watch some tape and become profitable that way?

Or don't, either way.

You have just as good a chance of ending up positive (actually a substantially better chance) betting your $5100 on one spot if you're picking the spread bets randomly, for what it's worth, if each individual bet has say a -2.5% ROI

But don't do that either.

Ya know what? **** it. Do it and keep doing it. Why not. Keep pumping money into the ecosystem. You people dont listen to us anyway.