I don't know how anyone is expecting this fight to go the distance. These guys are both submission artists who rarely go the distance. I bet Chiesa straight at -145 to win 1u and also put a smallish .2u bet on Chiesa ITD at +175 as well as a tiny .05u wager on Chiesa by KO/TKO at +1885. If Lauzon does upset, it will be him subbing Chiesa. If it goes to decision it will be Chiesa using size to wear down Lauzon.

Skelly barely lost to Mirsad Bektic, who is supposed to be the elite of the elite prospectwise. He seems quite solid.

I agree with this, I think a sub is likely no matter who wins, don't see a KO though.

Fire away and trust your read , you will regret it if you don't on this one. Chiesa should be -350 or higher.

That makes me feel better - I thought the same that it should be at least -200 and possibly more

I have 8 units on, so i've already fired, and will consider adding more if Chiesa looks good at the weigh ins. Back at -131 now, considering adding more for sure if he looks good.

Damm out to +480, if he hits +500 I might add a half unit just as an odds play because Iaquinta has lost a few fights he should have won and it won't be a totally one sided beatdown probably

Yeah Iaquinta is the master of getting in his own way.

Be prepared to put your monies where your mouths is!

Gus vs. Rumble is happening.

Gus all day to -200, Rumble at +400 or better. I'd cap it at something like -280 for Gus. I expect it to open Gus -210 Rumble +160 or something if I had to guess.

Timing works out for it to be the co-main for Jones/Cormier, if so that's the smart move since the winner of the co-main can call out/cut a promo on the winner of the Main before it happens which will make the resulting fight (ideally Jones/Gus 2) even bigger

Also if they're on the same card it's easy for Gus to step in to the main in the event Jones or Cormier gets injured and the card keeps a legit main event

Added a 9th unit on Chiesa -131 and a 0.1u to win 6u parlay on Mousasi/Reem/Lewis/Chiesa/Oliveira/Scoggins/Camozzi

Me wonders what happens if Cormier defeats Jones, and especially if it's a close fight. Feel like Jones deserves an immediate rematch considering how dominant he has been. Winner of Gustafsson/Johnson would have to wait for quite some time then.

I'd say Gustafsson is about -200-250 against Johnson. He definitely has more heart and better cardio, hopefully it's a 5 round fight so he can wear out Johnson. Though Johnson hits hard and Gustafsson, while he has a solid chin, gets hit a bit too often. I he got hit with some good shots by both Shogun and Manuwa if I'm not mistaken.

Gus does get hit too often, but that is the only thing going against him in this fight.
His boxing is clearly superior, his wrestling may very well be as good or even better for mma. His cardio is much better, his heart. Just a much better fighter.
Rumble does punch harder but his punch vs opponents chin + will is not as advantageous as Gus power to Rumbles chin + will.

-250 sounds reasonable.

Cliffs: i think Rumble is very overrated. It is another case of "Overeem getting huge = all his flaws is gone obviously!"
Please go and watch Rumble vs. Arlovski.

Can't wait! Gonna be raking in the money when I fire big on rumble at some ridiculous odds.

Last time I've fired a dog for more than 10u was Jake shields vs Mia, and Shields vs Woodly ( my two biggest wins in a single fight). Think rumble is gonna give me that same payday.

Feel free to offer some odds and i may accept for a hundred or so

If you want to give me +250 for 100 I'm down.

I suspect that's way worse than what i will get on a proper bookie, so no thank you.

I have Gregard and Chiesa

Gregard is a 50/50 here so great odds and Joe isn't really top level any longer

Yeah not really sure where it opens. Figured +200-+300.. But I'm terrible on guessing openers.

Either way capping Runble at -150 here, so probably going to love w/e it is.

@Elliot Your Mousasi/Chiesa best are through me right?

Just forgot about it and wanted to confirm as I thought I had a full unit on Mousasi but if I fired your bet it's a half unit, I have so much on Chiesa it doesn't matter either way

Skelly looked good/pretty big compared to Soriano and did a wrestling pose the idea of which seemed to look like 'i can take you down at will'

Camozzi looks in good shape and pretty big compared to Natal, plus I think he knows he's fighting for his job this time. Pretty tempting.

Iaquinta looks better than Damm at weighin imo

Oliveira looks HUGE compared to Lentz but also missed by 4 lbs so whether he tries to cut the rest or not matters a lot

Chiesa will def have the size advantage I expected vs Lauzon

Non-TRT Rothwell vs non-horsemeat Overeem... Reem looks way smaller but Rothwell just does not look like an athlete

Mousasi is taller and skinnier than I remember. Will all depend on whether Jacare can take him down at will or not

hey mate

No I'm testing a bitcoin site

I'm also going to put a small bet on Lentz, Oliveria will be dying if he missed by that much

http://www.mmafighting.com/2014/9/4/...iral-infection

Arbed out of Oliveira bet to have a 0.14u freeroll on him

I should probably fire Lentz now but whatever want to cheer for Oliveira so i'll just leave it alone

I just did the exact same thing so I (almost) break even no matter who wins. I'll live bet this now. Also put a small flyer in Lentz ITD at +700 and Lentz wins in round 3 at +2650 in case he can stop a sick and weak Do Bronx late in the fight.

Overeem in to -381 because he's smaller than Rothwell etc

If the absurd steam continues I might end up playing Overeem after all if he gets in to -300 or more - despite the crazy steam and Overeem being smaller/weaker than he used to be, he's still absurdly better than Rothwell who also doesn't have the cardio to crush him in r3 if he gets there, Rothwell still has to land a big punch in r1 to put Overeem out

Considering Skelly, Overeem, Camozzi, Damm and Scoggins but probably won't fire any at current prices - closer to firing Overeem and Camozzi than the rest. Good chance i'll make partial unit degen bets on all of these once card starts.

Current bets

0u to win 0.14u Oliveira (had a unit at -130, arbed out at Lentz +151 for freeroll with news of Oliveria being sick + missing weight, but kept the freeroll on his side because I want to cheer for him)

9u Chiesa -134ish average (my favourite play of the card and in a while, Chiesa is bigger and stronger, has the BJJ not to get subbed, has the reach standing, better strength/takedowns and is younger and hungrier)

1u Lewis -151 (has some nice wins, big, strong, explosive - Mitrione hits hard too but has lost to upper mid level guys and Lewis seems to be the better prospect at this point)

1u Mousasi +253 (will win the standup most of the time if Jacare can't take him down at will. Will have been drilling TDD all camp I assume. Has a win over Jacare. Even though i'd take Jacare at evens, I like the price I got as I think he wins something like 35-40% of the time.)

Assorted degen parlays

0.23u to win 1.68u parlay (Oliveira, Lewis, Chiesa, Overeem, Scoggins)
0.1u to win 6u parlay (Oliveira, Lewis, Chiesa, Overeem, Scoggins, Mousasi, Camozzi)
0.13 to win 0.16u parlay (Overeem, Beal, Skelly)

Reem looks very good lean and in good shape.

For those who don't know, Skelly just fought 2 weeks ago at ufc fight night 49. That's a really fast turn around and likely to affect him.

After a fight that lasted 2:30 and he took no damage, why do you think the 2 week turn around is a big factor. Doesn't seem like he has to make a crazy weight cut. This seems like a great matchup for him since Soriano got outclassed by wrestling and grappling in his last outing and those are Skelly's strongest areas. If Skelly gets back to -180 where he opened I think its a great bet and might still fire at up to -200.

Well he is going to be making weight twice in two weeks . Not peaking properly, and not giving his body any rest from his previous training camp.

Two weeks is rough, doesn't matter how short that fight was.

It isn't optimal but I don't think it is a big enough deal to make a huge difference. He doesn't seem big for the weight so I wouldn't expect making the cut again to be too taxing. And he can maintain from his previous camp fairly well after a fight that wasn't grueling for him at all.
Might have a slight bearing but I think the skill set matchup favors Skelly enough that he is still a heavy favorite in this fight.

What price would you need to take Skelly?